Realized P&L
-$6.60K
Unrealized P&L
-$53
Hit rate
0.0%
Resolved
4
Trades
38,424
lifetime
Volume
$12.1M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$314
Open exposure
$30.4K
27 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 23:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
50%
0%
$-6,604
Other
49%
—
—
Crypto
1%
—
—
Tech
0%
—
—
Pop-Culture
0%
—
—
Sports
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
80 active days in 12wk
• peak 1251 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | No | +4,973 | $4,839 | 98¢ | $4.9K | +$47 | 06-09 22:44 | |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | +4,212 | $4,176 | 99¢ | $4.2K | +$9 | 06-08 19:38 | |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | -4,084 | $-3,587 | 86¢ | $-3492 | +$95 | 06-08 14:08 | |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | +2,422 | $2,367 | 98¢ | $2.4K | +$12 | 06-05 17:14 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +2,615 | $2,341 | 90¢ | $2.3K | $-0 | 06-08 15:50 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | +2,349 | $2,206 | 94¢ | $2.2K | $-1 | 06-08 17:51 | |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | -2,115 | $-1,461 | 82¢ | $-1724 | $-263 | 06-04 19:17 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +1,916 | $1,554 | 82¢ | $1.6K | +$7 | 06-09 11:53 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +2,300 | $1,583 | 68¢ | $1.6K | $-30 | 06-09 00:15 | |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | No | -1,524 | $-1,520 | 100¢ | $-1521 | $-1 | 06-08 07:28 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | No | +1,484 | $1,328 | 92¢ | $1.4K | +$31 | 06-09 12:32 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | +1,457 | $1,239 | 84¢ | $1.2K | $-7 | 06-02 10:04 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | -994 | $-351 | 38¢ | $-373 | $-21 | 06-09 15:28 | |
| Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | +364 | $362 | 99¢ | $362 | $-0 | 06-10 03:06 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | +453 | $249 | 62¢ | $278 | +$29 | 06-05 11:18 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | -1,643 | $-252 | 12¢ | $-189 | +$63 | 06-09 17:31 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? | No | +180 | $177 | 99¢ | $178 | +$1 | 06-05 08:28 | |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | +153 | $146 | 100¢ | $152 | +$6 | 06-03 20:56 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | +140 | $115 | 82¢ | $115 | +$1 | 06-05 11:34 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | +100 | $98 | 99¢ | $99 | +$1 | 06-04 06:21 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | +109 | $97 | 90¢ | $97 | +$1 | 06-01 22:17 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | +500 | $113 | 16¢ | $82 | $-31 | 06-09 17:49 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | +60 | $24 | 50¢ | $30 | +$7 | 06-03 16:24 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | +30 | $26 | 86¢ | $26 | +$0 | 06-07 00:37 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | +10 | $10 | 99¢ | $10 | +$0 | 06-03 11:53 | |
| SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? | Yes | +5 | $5 | 95¢ | $5 | +$0 | 06-07 23:08 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | +20 | $9 | 10¢ | $2 | $-8 | 05-29 14:59 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 151 | $1.10M | 707,840 | 393,983 | +313,857 | open | — | 02-04 00:36 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 476 | $651.8K | 659,147 | 0 | +659,147 | open | — | 04-01 08:55 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 2,610 | $600.0K | 441,350 | 190,385 | +250,966 | open | — | 04-25 02:02 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 1 | $498.5K | 500,000 | 0 | +500,000 | open | — | 04-07 09:46 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | 1,145 | $378.0K | 259,946 | 126,077 | +133,869 | open | — | 04-23 22:36 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 646 | $335.1K | 358,786 | 234,787 | +123,999 | open | — | 03-02 10:18 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 81 | $288.3K | 279,468 | 10,000 | +269,468 | open | — | 01-03 20:48 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 245 | $260.9K | 273,870 | 0 | +273,870 | open | — | 03-10 21:27 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 234 | $230.9K | 123,952 | 118,425 | +5,527 | open | — | 01-20 14:59 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 72 | $210.3K | 211,000 | 0 | +211,000 | open | — | 03-04 16:31 |
| new stranger things episode released by january 31 294 | 123 | $185.4K | 93,691 | 92,999 | +692 | open | — | 01-27 02:42 |
| will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 1,150 | $183.1K | 186,228 | 0 | +186,228 | open | — | 02-06 09:20 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 574 | $181.8K | 220,592 | 0 | +220,592 | open | — | 01-31 23:51 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 549 | $180.6K | 206,693 | 111,349 | +95,344 | open | — | 03-04 00:39 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 1,629 | $177.5K | 193,596 | 1,503 | +192,093 | open | — | 03-22 10:05 |
| us strikes iran by february 12 2026 525 | 2 | $169.3K | 170,000 | 0 | +170,000 | open | — | 02-12 15:35 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | 283 | $163.4K | 102,603 | 104,408 | -1,805 | open | — | 02-20 05:44 |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | 222 | $159.9K | 80,176 | 80,176 | +0 | open | — | 02-21 00:50 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 495 | $154.8K | 149,538 | 20,000 | +129,538 | open | — | 01-31 15:41 |
| earnings mentions netflix 2026 01 20 warner bros 1 times | 5 | $149.8K | 100,000 | 49,950 | +50,050 | open | — | 01-23 18:35 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 637 | $147.8K | 150,306 | 12,000 | +138,307 | open | — | 03-22 08:42 |
| will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 462 | $137.1K | 139,501 | 0 | +139,501 | open | — | 02-06 09:27 |
| us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931 | 22 | $134.7K | 135,360 | 0 | +135,360 | open | — | 02-13 12:56 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 45 | $134.2K | 155,000 | 0 | +155,000 | open | — | 02-27 18:06 |
| us strikes iran by february 15 2026 | 36 | $123.2K | 124,331 | 0 | +124,331 | open | — | 02-15 12:37 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 695 | $118.1K | 169,729 | 40,000 | +129,729 | open | — | 02-27 10:01 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 351 | $115.4K | 110,823 | 10,000 | +100,823 | open | — | 05-11 14:50 |
| will the iranian regime fall by january 31 | 74 | $114.8K | 116,895 | 0 | +116,895 | open | — | 01-26 23:54 |
| us strikes iran by february 27 2026 | 128 | $110.4K | 114,502 | 0 | +114,502 | open | — | 02-27 19:13 |
| us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368 | 60 | $102.2K | 103,804 | 0 | +103,804 | open | — | 02-26 17:32 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | 427 | $560.3K | 4,882 | 06-09 03:33 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | 412 | $3.65M | 65,884 | 06-10 02:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xca8f…d963 | 373 | $195.1K | 100,663 | 04-26 14:40 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | 372 | $61.8K | 23,605 | 06-08 16:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2 | 362 | $477.6K | 40,767 | 03-28 06:16 |
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | 351 | $66.2M | 93,661 | 06-10 03:31 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | 325 | $1.16M | 92,306 | 06-01 01:38 |
| Naive-Waterwheel 0x10b2…4ceb | 322 | $102.2K | 6,665 | 06-09 13:31 |