Realized P&L
+$632
Unrealized P&L
+$2.08K
Hit rate
28.0%
Resolved
36
Trades
2,518
lifetime
Volume
$117.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$47
Open exposure
$85.1K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-29 13:43
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 16 days
Categories
Politics
43% 40% -$235
Other
38% 11% -$192
Sports
16% 64% +$1,060
Crypto
3% — —
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
56 active days in 12wk • peak 64 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +17,367 $16,769 98¢ $17.1K +$330 09-20 07:30
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +9,375 $8,930 98¢ $9.2K +$234 09-19 00:16
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +7,388 $7,138 98¢ $7.2K +$65 09-20 12:58
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +6,306 $5,473 98¢ $6.2K +$716 07-07 07:44
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +5,074 $4,849 100¢ $5.1K +$212 09-20 17:26
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +4,072 $3,754 97¢ $4.0K +$206 09-10 04:27
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +3,848 $3,351 93¢ $3.6K +$227 08-20 15:28
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No +3,761 $3,291 90¢ $3.4K +$74 09-15 22:56
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +3,967 $3,328 84¢ $3.3K -$7 10-29 01:13
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +3,090 $2,980 96¢ $3.0K -$24 10-27 14:32
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +3,695 $2,408 57¢ $2.1K -$300 08-14 16:20
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +2,423 $2,075 85¢ $2.1K -$11 10-28 19:41
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No +2,064 $1,986 99¢ $2.0K +$52 08-04 16:53
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +1,863 $1,719 94¢ $1.8K +$32 09-02 22:13
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? No +1,715 $1,588 97¢ $1.7K +$84 08-05 18:29
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +3,695 $1,348 43¢ $1.6K +$239 08-14 03:31
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +1,472 $1,412 96¢ $1.4K -$2 10-28 11:41
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +1,264 $1,166 96¢ $1.2K +$47 07-25 09:43
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +1,198 $1,169 97¢ $1.2K -$4 08-21 05:41
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No +1,378 $1,264 84¢ $1.2K -$100 08-20 08:15
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +1,283 $1,122 90¢ $1.2K +$30 09-04 16:43
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +1,133 $1,109 98¢ $1.1K -$3 10-29 04:13
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +858 $827 97¢ $832 +$5 10-23 22:09
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +773 $731 95¢ $734 +$3 09-21 01:21
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +4,354 $712 16¢ $710 -$2 10-29 13:43
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +677 $630 96¢ $651 +$21 07-10 04:36
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes +517 $496 99¢ $514 +$18 08-28 18:28
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +500 $458 92¢ $457 $0 10-21 21:02
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +460 $422 94¢ $435 +$13 09-21 09:38
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +3,761 $469 11¢ $395 -$74 09-21 09:50