Realized P&L
+$874
Unrealized P&L
+$120
Hit rate
100.0%
Resolved
8
Trades
3,168
lifetime
Volume
$490.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$155
Open exposure
$21.9K
24 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 06-29 20:08
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Other
61% 100% +$856
Politics
37% 100% +$18
Tech
1%
Crypto
1%
Sports
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
70 active days in 12wk • peak 69 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -6,344 $-6,357 100¢ $-6338 +$19 06-17 20:57
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +3,904 $3,531 94¢ $3.7K +$140 06-09 17:35
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -2,625 $-2,303 92¢ $-2402 $-99 06-11 20:23
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No +1,939 $1,805 94¢ $1.8K +$27 06-29 18:29
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No +1,514 $1,432 96¢ $1.4K +$15 06-18 19:53
Iran leadership change by June 30? No +1,045 $1,025 100¢ $1.0K +$18 06-15 19:27
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +1,076 $1,013 94¢ $1.0K $-0 06-25 11:48
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No -778 $-800 100¢ $-776 +$24 06-16 11:40
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -500 $-473 95¢ $-476 $-3 06-21 01:26
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +500 $465 94¢ $468 +$2 06-18 18:17
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? No -400 $-396 100¢ $-400 $-4 06-02 17:33
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? No +398 $395 100¢ $398 +$3 06-21 16:53
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes +400 $391 90¢ $360 $-30 06-10 13:35
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No -350 $-359 100¢ $-349 +$10 06-20 15:42
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No -300 $-360 100¢ $-300 +$60 06-22 07:04
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes +250 $225 90¢ $225 +$0 06-21 12:59
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes +500 $220 45¢ $225 +$5 06-25 13:06
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No +100 $88 91¢ $91 +$3 06-21 15:35
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -263 $-32 14¢ $-35 $-4 06-18 18:48
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes -72 $-35 46¢ $-33 +$1 06-20 01:58
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Yes -60 $-7 $-5 +$2 06-21 13:40
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes +328 $10 $1 $-8 06-11 07:44
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes +100 $92 $1 $-91 06-10 16:31
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Yes +0 $-29 100¢ $0 +$29 06-29 20:08