Surprised-Article — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.20K

Unrealized P&L

-$38

Hit rate

80.3%

Resolved

Trades

935

lifetime

Volume

$30.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$2.15K

16 positions

First seen

2026-03-21

last 10-26 20:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Politics

84% 44% +$1,187

Other

15% 50% +$22

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-2,579	-$1,394	44¢	$-1123	+$270	10-01 20:14
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+2,039	$370	18¢	$377	+$7	10-24 08:45
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	+998	$537	26¢	$254	-$283	10-20 07:26
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+475	$109	19¢	$91	-$18	10-24 08:46
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-100	-$90	88¢	$-88	+$2	10-01 06:14
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-57	-$47	96¢	$-55	-$8	05-04 06:14
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-78	-$41	38¢	$-30	+$11	10-05 11:49
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-27	-$23	92¢	$-25	-$2	09-05 11:01
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+170	$19	13¢	$22	+$3	10-21 00:22
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	-28	-$16	74¢	$-20	-$4	05-16 20:54
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-122	-$11	16¢	$-20	-$9	05-14 13:27
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-439	-$10	3¢	$-14	-$5	05-16 22:31
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-12	-$11	99¢	$-12	-$1	06-02 22:55
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-11	-$10	94¢	$-10	$0	09-01 21:03
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-8	-$7	97¢	$-8	$0	09-01 21:03
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-167	-$1	2¢	$-2	-$1	08-18 14:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	67	$3.7K	3,299	1,552	+1,747	open	—	10-16 05:20
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	20	$1.8K	2,432	5,012	-2,579	open	—	10-01 20:14
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	23	$1.7K	1,307	1,252	+56	open	—	10-19 10:42
Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	43	$1.7K	1,849	243	+1,606	Yes	+$269	10-11 16:17
Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	27	$1.5K	845	845	+0	open	—	10-10 16:46
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	41	$1.3K	1,672	43	+1,629	open	—	10-15 05:33
Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	28	$1.2K	1,636	0	+1,636	Yes	+$392	09-15 07:40
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	29	$1.2K	818	818	+0	open	—	10-17 13:29
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	20	$1.1K	1,175	117	+1,058	open	—	10-11 14:30
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	28	$916	671	624	+47	open	—	10-16 05:19
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	20	$683	1,701	703	+998	open	—	10-20 07:26
Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	17	$665	985	569	+416	open	—	10-10 10:17
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	14	$659	594	149	+446	open	—	10-23 07:29
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	17	$654	901	590	+311	open	—	10-17 13:30
Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	18	$644	613	461	+152	open	—	10-21 17:16
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	17	$571	515	423	+92	open	—	10-21 22:36
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	15	$562	594	156	+439	open	—	10-21 17:16
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	17	$544	2,366	328	+2,039	open	—	10-24 08:45
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	7	$523	307	307	+0	open	—	10-15 03:55
Will Édouard Philippe, but not Gabriel Attal, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	10	$445	612	0	+612	open	—	10-12 08:34
Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	13	$426	606	110	+495	open	—	10-17 13:36
2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?	8	$425	513	0	+513	open	—	10-24 09:49
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	7	$354	195	195	+0	open	—	10-17 13:29
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	18	$316	1,595	1,595	+0	open	—	10-01 06:12
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	12	$273	204	161	+43	open	—	10-21 22:36
Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	8	$271	366	153	+213	open	—	10-25 14:32
Curfew in a major French city by December 31, 2026?	6	$268	222	222	+0	Yes	+$148	10-19 17:00
Will Michel Barnier announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	10	$248	187	103	+84	open	—	10-26 20:46
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	8	$230	580	177	+403	open	—	10-24 08:47
Will Olivier Faure be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	5	$221	179	179	+0	open	—	10-17 13:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 20:47:20	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0xad2e7f…
10-26 20:46:51	Will Michel Barnier announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	SELL	35	94¢	$33	0x2a1fa3…
10-26 20:45:36	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0x8072ca…
10-26 20:45:12	Will Élisabeth Borne announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	SELL	33	93¢	$31	0x0b0f78…
10-26 20:44:47	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0x1499f2…
10-25 14:32:39	Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	Yes	SELL	51	50¢	$26	0x77da5a…
10-24 09:49:27	2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?	Zemmour	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x468149…
10-24 09:10:20	Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	No	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0xfd6845…
10-24 09:09:35	Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	No	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0xf5eaa9…
10-24 08:47:35	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	200	22¢	$44	0xa683e1…
10-24 08:46:38	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	150	21¢	$31	0x3cba4a…
10-24 08:45:18	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	17¢	$85	0xe2e9b8…
10-24 08:44:21	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	40	17¢	$7	0x8a4c6c…
10-23 07:29:44	Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	149	90¢	$134	0x9cf254…
10-21 22:36:44	Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	31	81¢	$25	0x5ae932…
10-21 22:36:18	Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	14	79¢	$11	0xc0807b…
10-21 22:35:12	Will both Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0xecd9a5…
10-21 17:16:33	Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xba4704…
10-21 17:16:11	Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	SELL	51	79¢	$40	0xd18552…
10-21 00:22:29	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	57	13¢	$7	0xb3f065…
10-20 07:26:46	Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	BUY	67	30¢	$20	0xf51408…
10-20 04:53:56	Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	32	67¢	$22	0x158af6…
10-20 04:53:27	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	68	26¢	$18	0xae7afd…
10-19 20:53:45	Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x95b780…
10-19 20:50:08	2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?	Zemmour	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xacb711…
10-19 17:00:30	Curfew in a major French city by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	95¢	$59	0x4313a0…
10-19 17:00:05	Curfew in a major French city by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x3d4bc3…
10-19 17:00:03	Curfew in a major French city by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	95¢	$57	0x4d9dbe…
10-19 16:58:50	Curfew in a major French city by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	95¢	$40	0x4c25d8…
10-19 16:55:51	Curfew in a major French city by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	90¢	$50	0x19c8d5…
10-19 10:43:23	Curfew in a major French city by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	27¢	$60	0x5af4be…
10-19 10:42:42	Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	82	91¢	$75	0x0331ad…
10-17 13:36:48	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	90	26¢	$24	0xc84dd6…
10-17 13:36:11	Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	47¢	$40	0xeba8d7…
10-17 13:33:15	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	133	30¢	$40	0x04ef8a…
10-17 13:33:02	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	168	30¢	$50	0xc8769d…
10-17 13:30:54	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	No	SELL	104	58¢	$60	0x3ede98…
10-17 13:30:06	Will Olivier Faure be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	112	93¢	$104	0x2291cc…
10-17 13:29:56	Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	166	93¢	$154	0x79ddf3…
10-17 13:29:42	Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	49	92¢	$45	0xc4e41d…
10-17 10:50:54	Will Marine Le Pen win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	83	84¢	$70	0x1a5cc5…
10-17 10:49:32	Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	Yes	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0x654384…
10-17 10:48:05	Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x02e9f8…
10-16 18:50:50	2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?	Zemmour	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0x9ba47a…
10-16 05:39:42	2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?	Zemmour	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x52bb12…
10-16 05:22:33	Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	47¢	$20	0x974e59…
10-16 05:21:06	Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	38	39¢	$15	0xe2e5d8…
10-16 05:20:13	Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0xe180ba…
10-16 05:19:58	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x1c97fb…
10-16 05:19:49	Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	11	69¢	$7	0x8be60b…
10-16 05:19:30	Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	16	60¢	$9	0xdd73af…
10-16 05:19:09	Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x223619…
10-15 20:57:23	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	No	SELL	138	51¢	$70	0xc8b103…
10-15 19:56:23	Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0xafa4b5…
10-15 19:56:14	Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0xae083e…
10-15 19:56:10	Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x977c84…
10-15 05:44:29	Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0x5282fe…
10-15 05:33:49	Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x7b8d9b…
10-15 05:33:11	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	152	13¢	$20	0x0534b3…
10-15 04:05:13	2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?	Zemmour	BUY	78	90¢	$70	0xe342ce…
10-15 04:05:02	2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?	Zemmour	BUY	47	86¢	$40	0xc3d6d0…
10-15 04:04:52	2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?	Zemmour	BUY	47	85¢	$40	0x6d1626…
10-15 03:57:02	Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	19	79¢	$15	0x6aa90c…
10-15 03:56:44	Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x7ffa58…
10-15 03:56:02	Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	21	60¢	$13	0x2bbeea…
10-15 03:55:19	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	SELL	307	84¢	$258	0xfee233…
10-12 21:49:59	Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	BUY	419	24¢	$100	0xa25b60…
10-12 21:48:15	Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	No	BUY	239	42¢	$100	0x08d06d…
10-12 18:47:05	2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?	Zemmour	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x5e3150…
10-12 09:14:19	Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	121	83¢	$100	0x101693…
10-12 08:39:27	Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	46	87¢	$40	0x34bdf1…
10-12 08:39:07	Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0xaaa3c5…
10-12 08:37:55	Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x81023d…
10-12 08:34:27	Will Édouard Philippe, but not Gabriel Attal, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0xb03056…
10-12 08:33:43	Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x196be7…
10-12 08:33:25	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0xa4158b…
10-12 08:33:15	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x1d01ee…
10-12 08:32:30	Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	161	87¢	$140	0xf3bad8…
10-12 08:32:10	Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x5dc204…
10-12 08:32:03	Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xca1601…
10-12 08:30:57	Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	70	85¢	$60	0x160665…
10-12 08:30:40	Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x6ecacb…
10-11 17:05:07	Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	16	93¢	$15	0x9b055f…
10-11 16:17:39	Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0xf96f43…
10-11 16:17:34	Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x15f7a1…
10-11 16:17:10	Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	110	91¢	$100	0x5b961b…
10-11 16:03:57	Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0xc836b8…
10-11 16:03:25	Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0x0a687a…
10-11 14:48:39	Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0xa47d40…
10-11 14:47:16	Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	146	91¢	$133	0x2e0ebb…
10-11 14:37:12	Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	29	88¢	$25	0x55936f…
10-11 14:35:07	Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	37	87¢	$33	0xf46886…
10-11 14:35:03	Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	28	87¢	$24	0x980072…
10-11 14:30:51	Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	25	86¢	$21	0x0a5608…
10-11 14:30:10	Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	117	89¢	$104	0x27ad85…
10-11 14:11:21	Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0xbf3630…
10-11 14:11:00	Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	22	93¢	$20	0x30497e…
10-11 13:29:12	Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	32	87¢	$28	0x16173d…
10-11 13:26:12	Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x0f55b5…
10-11 13:25:37	Will Michel Barnier announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	SELL	47	94¢	$44	0xe2d2c4…