Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
open
Total volume
$7,138
Trades
294
Unique wallets
68
Liquidity
$674
Latest YES mid
25¢
Latest NO mid
76¢
End date
2027-04-17
First seen
2026-06-08
last 08-11 08:46
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-12.0¢
(top1%: 2% YES on $414
vs crowd: 14% YES on $5.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 8 | $109 | $1.2K | $1.0K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 21 | $143 | $1.1K | $986 |
| 🐟 Fish | 27 | $142 | $2.0K | $1.9K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 12 | $309 | $50 | +$259 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $8 | $406 | $399 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $40 | $272 | $232 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $14 | $552 | $538 |
| Median | 5 | $27 | $63 | $36 |
| Below median | 14 | $242 | $886 | $643 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $1 | $249 | $248 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 7 | $40 | $154 | $114 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $55 | $855 | $800 |
| unranked | 29 | $276 | $932 | $655 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x09b5…8b88 | Yes | +1,595 | $148 | $148 | 1 | 07-19 16:20 |
| Surprised-Article 0x6491…74b2 | Yes | +772 | $126 | $174 | 4 | 08-07 06:41 |
| Responsible-Legume 0x5d2f…24de | No | +600 | $480 | $480 | 1 | 07-27 20:57 |
| Tense-Precedent 0xfb51…742d | No | +510 | $406 | $406 | 2 | 08-02 10:35 |
| Prickly-Offense 0xe947…ab96 | No | +500 | $439 | $439 | 2 | 07-23 00:38 |
| Chubby-Prior 0x8797…bbbe | No | +335 | $248 | $248 | 2 | 07-22 14:39 |
| Misty-Worship 0xc1cf…9656 | No | +255 | $222 | $222 | 6 | 07-22 05:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | +150 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 08-03 12:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x0403…a7ee | No | +128 | $87 | $87 | 5 | 07-22 17:17 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +115 | $163 | $644 | 9 | 08-11 08:46 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +114 | $20 | $20 | 6 | 08-05 22:14 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +113 | $86 | $86 | 6 | 08-05 22:01 |
| Wan-Gymnastics 0x1f9e…4f1a | Yes | +110 | $8 | $8 | 3 | 07-13 00:06 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +102 | $91 | $368 | 12 | 08-09 11:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x5c66…31e3 | No | +100 | $86 | $86 | 1 | 07-22 05:52 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +99 | $22 | $32 | 3 | 07-31 06:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | +72 | $23 | $33 | 4 | 08-07 06:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x3080…337b | No | +54 | $39 | $39 | 2 | 07-22 07:34 |
| Solid-Pinstripe 0xa86f…022c | No | +45 | $40 | $93 | 4 | 08-03 12:14 |
| (anonymous) 0x5a7f…6413 | Yes | +30 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-22 08:58 |
| mskl 0x0fa2…05aa | No | +30 | $18 | $70 | 6 | 08-03 12:59 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +25 | $18 | $37 | 4 | 08-10 14:40 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +20 | $4 | $25 | 11 | 08-03 13:23 |
| Useful-Maelstrom 0x367b…2a13 | Yes | +15 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 08-11 08:46 |
| Thorny-Carpeting 0xb3b2…da22 | Yes | +8 | $2 | $4 | 3 | 07-31 00:50 |
| Thorny-Carpeting 0xb3b2…da22 | No | +8 | $5 | $17 | 3 | 07-23 00:38 |
| (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | +8 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-02 10:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-25 11:55 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 08-07 06:41 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-31 05:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xd43f…c66b | No | +4 | $4 | $5 | 2 | 08-03 04:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-22 14:40 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | +2 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-20 18:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x6e24…e20c | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-20 18:50 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-11 08:46:30 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 15 | 87¢ | $13 | 0x77c1e4… |
| 08-11 08:46:30 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 15 | 87¢ | $13 | 0x77c1e4… |
| 08-11 08:46:27 | Useful-Maelstrom 0x367b…2a13 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 13¢ | $2 | 0xe345bd… |
| 08-11 08:46:27 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 15 | 87¢ | $13 | 0xe345bd… |
| 08-10 14:40:42 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 5 | 87¢ | $4 | 0x0a7098… |
| 08-10 14:40:42 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | SELL | 5 | 87¢ | $4 | 0x0a7098… |
| 08-09 11:24:46 | Wonderful-Volatility 0x0739…aba8 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 13¢ | $2 | 0x95f934… |
| 08-09 11:24:46 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | SELL | 5 | 87¢ | $4 | 0x95f934… |
| 08-09 11:24:46 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 10 | 87¢ | $9 | 0x95f934… |
| 08-07 06:42:15 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0x6b2e0b… |
| 08-07 06:42:15 | (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x6b2e0b… |
| 08-07 06:41:52 | Surprised-Article 0x6491…74b2 | Yes | BUY | 70 | 14¢ | $10 | 0x92d074… |
| 08-07 06:41:52 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 86¢ | $4 | 0x92d074… |
| 08-07 06:41:52 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | BUY | 5 | 86¢ | $4 | 0x92d074… |
| 08-07 06:41:52 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x92d074… |
| 08-07 06:41:52 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x92d074… |
| 08-07 06:41:52 | (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x92d074… |
| 08-07 06:41:52 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x92d074… |
| 08-05 22:14:24 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x5cbb06… |
| 08-05 22:14:24 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x5cbb06… |
| 08-05 22:01:47 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0x3a8deb… |
| 08-05 22:01:47 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x3a8deb… |
| 08-03 13:23:36 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 12¢ | $4 | 0x3009ec… |
| 08-03 13:23:36 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 30 | 12¢ | $4 | 0x3009ec… |
| 08-03 12:59:23 | mskl 0x0fa2…05aa | No | SELL | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0xd217b6… |
| 08-03 12:59:23 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | BUY | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0xd217b6… |
| 08-03 12:38:47 | mskl 0x0fa2…05aa | No | SELL | 6 | 88¢ | $5 | 0xb28c1f… |
| 08-03 12:38:47 | Likely-Exhibit 0x9868…907e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 12¢ | $1 | 0xb28c1f… |
| 08-03 12:35:27 | Likely-Exhibit 0x9868…907e | Yes | SELL | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xf69f6f… |
| 08-03 12:35:27 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xf69f6f… |
| 08-03 12:35:26 | mskl 0x0fa2…05aa | No | SELL | 6 | 87¢ | $5 | 0x170120… |
| 08-03 12:35:26 | Likely-Exhibit 0x9868…907e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x170120… |
| 08-03 12:14:32 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 11¢ | $3 | 0x72c033… |
| 08-03 12:14:32 | Surprised-Article 0x6491…74b2 | Yes | SELL | 234 | 10¢ | $24 | 0x72c033… |
| 08-03 12:14:32 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x72c033… |
| 08-03 12:14:32 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 27 | 91¢ | $25 | 0x72c033… |
| 08-03 12:14:32 | Solid-Pinstripe 0xa86f…022c | No | SELL | 22 | 90¢ | $20 | 0x72c033… |
| 08-03 12:14:32 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | BUY | 150 | 10¢ | $15 | 0x72c033… |
| 08-03 04:27:05 | Likely-Exhibit 0x9868…907e | Yes | SELL | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x793ca8… |
| 08-03 04:27:05 | (anonymous) 0xd43f…c66b | No | SELL | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x793ca8… |
| 08-03 04:27:03 | Likely-Exhibit 0x9868…907e | Yes | SELL | 13 | 12¢ | $2 | 0xbc5fcf… |
| 08-03 04:27:03 | mskl 0x0fa2…05aa | No | SELL | 13 | 88¢ | $11 | 0xbc5fcf… |
| 08-02 12:21:24 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 14¢ | $2 | 0xc73127… |
| 08-02 12:21:24 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 14¢ | $2 | 0xc73127… |
| 08-02 12:09:41 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | Yes | SELL | 15 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x66b90f… |
| 08-02 12:09:41 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x66b90f… |
| 08-02 11:57:12 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | SELL | 60 | 13¢ | $8 | 0x978aa5… |
| 08-02 11:57:12 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | Yes | BUY | 15 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x978aa5… |
| 08-02 11:57:12 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 45 | 87¢ | $39 | 0x978aa5… |
| 08-02 10:47:42 | (anonymous) 0x6cb1…0f6e | Yes | SELL | 30 | 14¢ | $4 | 0x3072f7… |
| 08-02 10:47:42 | Likely-Exhibit 0x9868…907e | Yes | BUY | 14 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x3072f7… |
| 08-02 10:47:42 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 13 | 88¢ | $11 | 0x3072f7… |
| 08-02 10:47:26 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 16 | 86¢ | $14 | 0x2dbbca… |
| 08-02 10:47:26 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 14¢ | $4 | 0x2dbbca… |
| 08-02 10:47:26 | Likely-Exhibit 0x9868…907e | Yes | BUY | 14 | 15¢ | $2 | 0x2dbbca… |
| 08-02 10:35:54 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 38 | 17¢ | $6 | 0x351ec7… |
| 08-02 10:35:54 | Pointed-Pronunciation 0x82cd…d7d8 | Yes | SELL | 38 | 17¢ | $6 | 0x351ec7… |
| 08-02 10:35:33 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xa118f7… |
| 08-02 10:35:33 | Tense-Precedent 0xfb51…742d | No | BUY | 186 | 83¢ | $154 | 0xa118f7… |
| 08-02 10:35:33 | (anonymous) 0x6cb1…0f6e | Yes | BUY | 30 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xa118f7… |
| 08-02 10:35:33 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | No | SELL | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0xa118f7… |
| 08-02 10:35:33 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 17¢ | $10 | 0xa118f7… |
| 08-02 10:35:33 | (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | BUY | 8 | 18¢ | $1 | 0xa118f7… |
| 08-02 10:35:33 | Pointed-Pronunciation 0x82cd…d7d8 | Yes | BUY | 38 | 17¢ | $6 | 0xa118f7… |
| 07-31 16:07:42 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | Yes | SELL | 2 | 17¢ | $0 | 0x40d6e1… |
| 07-31 16:07:42 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 17¢ | $0 | 0x40d6e1… |
| 07-31 14:31:06 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | Yes | BUY | 2 | 22¢ | $0 | 0xa8ac77… |
| 07-31 14:31:06 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 12 | 77¢ | $10 | 0xa8ac77… |
| 07-31 14:31:06 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | SELL | 5 | 78¢ | $4 | 0xa8ac77… |
| 07-31 14:31:06 | Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 23¢ | $7 | 0xa8ac77… |
| 07-31 14:31:06 | (anonymous) 0x78c5…f623 | No | SELL | 11 | 76¢ | $8 | 0xa8ac77… |
| 07-31 06:58:53 | (anonymous) 0x126e…c360 | No | SELL | 11 | 73¢ | $8 | 0x9d3590… |
| 07-31 06:58:53 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 11 | 73¢ | $8 | 0x9d3590… |
| 07-31 06:48:53 | Pointed-Sail 0x9cfd…dfe7 | No | SELL | 7 | 73¢ | $5 | 0x6c26c4… |
| 07-31 06:48:53 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 7 | 73¢ | $5 | 0x6c26c4… |
| 07-31 06:30:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 72¢ | $14 | 0xb0c74e… |
| 07-31 06:30:20 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | No | SELL | 20 | 72¢ | $14 | 0xb0c74e… |
| 07-31 06:20:15 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | BUY | 1 | 72¢ | $0 | 0xcea14f… |
| 07-31 06:20:15 | Pointed-Sail 0x9cfd…dfe7 | No | BUY | 7 | 75¢ | $5 | 0xcea14f… |
| 07-31 06:20:15 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 12 | 72¢ | $9 | 0xcea14f… |
| 07-31 06:20:15 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | SELL | 20 | 73¢ | $15 | 0xcea14f… |
| 07-31 06:10:11 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 51 | 75¢ | $38 | 0x8fc173… |
| 07-31 06:10:11 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | BUY | 4 | 72¢ | $3 | 0x8fc173… |
| 07-31 06:10:11 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | SELL | 60 | 75¢ | $45 | 0x8fc173… |
| 07-31 06:10:11 | (anonymous) 0x78c5…f623 | No | BUY | 5 | 74¢ | $4 | 0x8fc173… |
| 07-31 06:00:20 | (anonymous) 0x126e…c360 | No | BUY | 11 | 75¢ | $8 | 0xaf4df5… |
| 07-31 06:00:20 | (anonymous) 0x78c5…f623 | No | BUY | 6 | 74¢ | $4 | 0xaf4df5… |
| 07-31 06:00:20 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 21¢ | $3 | 0xaf4df5… |
| 07-31 06:00:20 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 30 | 77¢ | $23 | 0xaf4df5… |
| 07-31 06:00:09 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x97a885… |
| 07-31 06:00:09 | Likable-Mention 0x3c3e…5a86 | No | SELL | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x97a885… |
| 07-31 06:00:06 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | SELL | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x90e010… |
| 07-31 06:00:06 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 21¢ | $2 | 0x90e010… |
| 07-31 06:00:06 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x90e010… |
| 07-31 05:59:51 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 30 | 84¢ | $25 | 0xb60c4d… |
| 07-31 05:59:51 | (anonymous) 0x6cb1…0f6e | No | SELL | 30 | 84¢ | $25 | 0xb60c4d… |
| 07-31 05:58:42 | (anonymous) 0x7a5c…767b | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x12b2ff… |
| 07-31 05:58:42 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | No | BUY | 30 | 84¢ | $25 | 0x12b2ff… |
| 07-31 05:58:42 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x12b2ff… |
| 07-31 05:58:42 | (anonymous) 0x6cb1…0f6e | No | BUY | 30 | 84¢ | $25 | 0x12b2ff… |