Common-Nitrogen — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20.2K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.0%

Resolved

Trades

12,292

lifetime

Volume

$5.82M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$473

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-09 22:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

79% 71% +$17,191

Other

21% 75% +$3,038

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 118 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	81	$366.9K	249,745	124,680	+125,065	open	—	03-04 16:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	397	$337.9K	666,682	627,436	+39,246	open	—	05-31 10:32
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	193	$277.6K	259,389	159,388	+100,001	open	—	03-01 04:04
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	143	$201.8K	177,392	30,000	+147,393	open	—	03-04 16:08
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	143	$176.8K	279,738	251,960	+27,778	open	—	04-21 20:10
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	219	$170.3K	195,811	195,810	+1	open	—	02-27 21:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	57	$170.0K	145,003	122,095	+22,908	open	—	04-28 02:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	202	$166.4K	222,684	222,682	+2	open	—	04-23 20:11
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	224	$162.2K	358,236	347,952	+10,285	open	—	08-05 08:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	99	$159.5K	305,027	304,642	+385	open	—	05-26 19:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	218	$138.1K	505,643	476,824	+28,819	open	—	05-28 21:27
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	183	$138.0K	212,328	135,004	+77,324	open	—	04-07 23:57
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	176	$106.1K	286,935	284,471	+2,463	open	—	03-25 19:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	113	$102.0K	163,981	150,284	+13,698	Yes	+$9,065	05-05 12:03
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	272	$91.0K	114,922	106,195	+8,727	open	—	04-07 23:11
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	135	$81.7K	104,754	68,970	+35,784	open	—	01-15 11:51
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	103	$61.4K	72,916	67,866	+5,050	open	—	02-27 10:01
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	41	$57.4K	73,940	76,387	-2,447	open	—	06-14 22:28
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	90	$56.9K	115,564	109,081	+6,483	No	+$8,882	05-05 15:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	96	$55.2K	53,139	28,496	+24,643	open	—	02-28 23:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	98	$55.1K	71,975	82,412	-10,436	open	—	07-06 23:18
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	14	$50.5K	58,895	22,546	+36,349	open	—	04-07 23:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	182	$49.3K	252,232	207,215	+45,016	open	—	06-26 14:19
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	141	$48.2K	66,654	54,118	+12,536	open	—	01-25 09:50
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	59	$46.7K	49,999	0	+49,999	open	—	01-12 17:46
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	186	$46.1K	67,194	66,856	+339	open	—	01-27 17:04
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	93	$44.5K	53,802	53,801	+1	open	—	04-05 03:24
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	44	$43.2K	75,659	45,659	+30,000	open	—	04-20 20:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	67	$42.1K	177,154	144,229	+32,925	open	—	05-06 14:44
will any of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	21	$40.9K	60,981	1,514	+59,467	open	—	01-31 12:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 22:32:07	Will Katie Britt announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xfcaf54…
08-07 16:20:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	2,956	48¢	$1,419	0xeeb164…
08-07 16:20:31	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	6,000	46¢	$2,760	0x04daaa…
08-07 13:52:52	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	2,193	45¢	$987	0xcec61d…
08-07 13:45:31	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0x3f69e1…
08-07 13:32:34	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	12	45¢	$6	0x761cca…
08-07 13:31:37	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	11	45¢	$5	0x7112a1…
08-07 13:30:28	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	6	45¢	$3	0x36fd32…
08-07 13:13:54	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	60	45¢	$27	0x07df4f…
08-07 13:10:54	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	48	45¢	$22	0x0ee917…
08-07 13:10:37	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	22	45¢	$10	0xb71c55…
08-07 13:01:22	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	4	45¢	$2	0xb2d2d0…
08-07 12:59:00	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	164	45¢	$74	0x40921c…
08-07 12:57:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	1,428	45¢	$643	0x3e2ac8…
08-07 12:33:19	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	3,919	41¢	$1,607	0x4c8869…
08-07 12:31:30	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xa8301b…
08-07 12:31:30	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x8420d2…
08-07 12:31:30	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	4,556	40¢	$1,822	0x5bcc31…
08-07 12:31:30	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x52a984…
08-07 12:30:46	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	15,472	39¢	$6,008	0xfdf13c…
08-07 10:00:52	will lisa murkowski vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821975	No	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0xe87786…
08-07 10:00:49	will lisa murkowski vote to confirm todd blanche as attorney general 20260609155821975	No	BUY	25	64¢	$16	0x91e6ae…
08-07 09:12:37	will trump say pelosi in august 20260728220215933	Yes	BUY	123	95¢	$117	0x7945db…
08-06 12:11:35	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	4,484	38¢	$1,704	0xa98af6…
08-05 14:22:59	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	500	57¢	$288	0x2e3aa4…
08-05 14:13:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	32	50¢	$16	0x1cf068…
08-05 14:12:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	59	49¢	$29	0x0270f9…
08-05 14:12:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	410	50¢	$206	0x722cbb…
08-05 14:07:29	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	4,372	52¢	$2,256	0xa0c460…
08-05 13:41:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	184	39¢	$72	0x678a76…
08-05 13:41:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	47	39¢	$18	0x6fda09…
08-05 13:41:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xe8c6f1…
08-05 13:41:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	495	39¢	$195	0xc8a21d…
08-05 13:41:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	3,641	38¢	$1,401	0x8452b4…
08-05 09:08:36	Will Roy Cooper announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x2dd489…
08-05 08:32:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10,000	16¢	$1,600	0x3c9a01…
08-04 15:53:50	will trump talk to mojtaba khamenei by december 31	No	BUY	879	94¢	$827	0x4efa8a…
08-04 15:39:32	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	2,531	22¢	$562	0x302dca…
08-04 15:39:18	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	3,233	18¢	$582	0x23c797…
08-04 15:39:05	will italy send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742054	Yes	BUY	1,625	4¢	$62	0x57089b…
08-04 15:39:00	will greece send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742053	Yes	BUY	1,569	4¢	$62	0xefde52…
08-04 15:38:54	will the netherlands send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742052	Yes	BUY	1,570	5¢	$76	0x6b4f4f…
08-04 15:38:53	will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742050	Yes	BUY	5,586	6¢	$321	0xbada57…
08-04 15:38:48	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742049	Yes	BUY	5,495	5¢	$283	0x365f67…
08-04 15:38:02	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0x5fc7f0…
08-04 15:30:47	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	45	25¢	$11	0x203a76…
08-04 15:30:38	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	SELL	82	25¢	$20	0xcd7dab…
08-04 15:27:29	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	BUY	5,991	17¢	$1,013	0x26e136…
08-04 14:45:09	Will Roy Cooper announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	54	100¢	$54	0x59ac3b…
08-04 13:29:39	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	6,093	16¢	$998	0x422495…
08-04 13:24:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	3,764	29¢	$1,092	0x54181f…
08-04 13:23:45	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	Yes	BUY	342	49¢	$168	0xf014d4…
08-04 13:23:32	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	Yes	BUY	934	51¢	$474	0x3511a4…
08-04 13:22:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	0	38¢	$0	0x5eb4a4…
08-04 13:22:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	4	38¢	$2	0x058c42…
08-04 11:49:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10,000	59¢	$5,900	0xcc2d2c…
08-04 11:49:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	42	14¢	$6	0x5d4b41…
08-04 11:48:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x3da883…
08-04 11:48:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x3c0e0d…
08-04 11:47:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	119	14¢	$17	0xe2dc60…
08-04 11:47:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	89	14¢	$12	0x35ac3e…
08-04 11:47:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0x89cb46…
08-04 11:47:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	46	14¢	$6	0x9c418c…
08-04 11:46:44	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741055	Yes	BUY	113	17¢	$19	0x017160…
08-04 11:46:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	18	26¢	$5	0x0efd8b…
08-04 11:46:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	137	26¢	$36	0xe236b9…
08-04 11:46:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	42	26¢	$11	0x4acf2b…
08-04 11:46:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0xea58be…
08-04 11:46:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	134	26¢	$35	0x45d382…
08-04 11:46:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	3	26¢	$1	0x1edb2b…
08-04 11:46:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x8998b7…
08-04 11:46:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	49	26¢	$13	0xddf11c…
08-04 11:44:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x4be43b…
08-04 11:44:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x5c766d…
08-04 11:44:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	600	14¢	$84	0x4837ee…
08-04 11:32:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,970	21¢	$414	0x3eca76…
08-04 11:18:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	52	21¢	$11	0x29778a…
08-04 11:18:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	5,000	26¢	$1,300	0x787a55…
08-04 11:07:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	43	21¢	$9	0x611d42…
08-04 10:59:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0x817b8e…
08-04 10:45:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	90	21¢	$19	0xe95a92…
08-04 10:43:44	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	3	19¢	$1	0x05e5ca…
08-04 10:41:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	21¢	$105	0x70a3bd…
08-04 10:36:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	21¢	$0	0x943ea8…
08-04 10:21:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	21	21¢	$4	0x713eb6…
08-04 10:17:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0xd757ca…
08-04 10:15:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,320	21¢	$487	0x5ccc22…
08-04 10:14:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40,000	21¢	$8,400	0x4d095b…
08-04 09:59:24	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	SELL	149	19¢	$28	0x77695f…
08-04 06:10:29	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	1,063	88¢	$935	0xfd959f…
08-04 06:07:51	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	2,408	88¢	$2,119	0xdaee62…
08-03 20:23:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	1,296	0¢	$3	0xeeea68…
08-03 20:10:20	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0xbaa73a…
08-03 20:08:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x5682df…
08-03 19:22:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	190	0¢	$0	0x69f1fe…
08-03 17:37:09	Will Katie Britt announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x34f2b6…
08-02 20:00:03	Will John Thune announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	801	95¢	$761	0xefc0da…
08-02 19:59:53	Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	721	95¢	$682	0x8a6fc6…
08-01 19:40:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	136	29¢	$39	0x5a8589…
08-01 19:39:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x0af47b…