Realized P&L
-$27
Unrealized P&L
+$26
Hit rate
62.5%
Resolved
29
Trades
8,320
lifetime
Volume
$70.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$976
27 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 16:17
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 15 days
Categories
Other
53% 53% $-18
Politics
45% 29% $-7
Sports
1% 29% $-2
Tech
0%
Crypto
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
67 active days in 12wk • peak 69 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Kash Patel out by December 31? No +948 $543 63¢ $598 +$54 07-20 16:04
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +400 $327 78¢ $314 $-13 07-20 16:04
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes +20 $11 30¢ $6 $-5 06-20 12:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -8 $-5 72¢ $-6 $-1 07-18 18:37
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +7 $5 76¢ $6 +$1 06-11 00:12
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No -6 $-5 98¢ $-5 $-0 07-02 01:38
Will Alberta join the US? No -5 $-5 97¢ $-5 $-0 07-18 20:00
Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? No -6 $-4 86¢ $-5 $-0 07-18 20:00
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No +4 $3 82¢ $3 +$0 06-20 12:58
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Yes -3 $-3 100¢ $-3 +$0 06-30 19:08
China coup attempt before 2027? No -3 $-3 96¢ $-3 $-0 07-18 09:37
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +4 $3 66¢ $3 $-0 07-20 15:44
Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026? No -3 $-2 78¢ $-2 $-0 07-02 01:41
Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026? No -3 $-2 72¢ $-2 $-0 07-02 01:41
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +2 $2 90¢ $2 +$0 07-03 08:14
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026? No -3 $-2 62¢ $-2 $-0 07-02 01:41
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes -15 $5 12¢ $-2 $-7 07-03 08:14
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026? No -2 $-2 97¢ $-2 $-0 07-04 00:54
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No -5 $1 34¢ $-2 $-3 07-04 00:53
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Yes -11 $-1 $-1 $-0 07-18 19:58
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No -1 $-1 98¢ $-1 +$0 07-18 09:39
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No -1 $-1 96¢ $-1 $-0 07-18 09:37
Yoon out of custody before 2027? Yes -10 $-1 10¢ $-1 +$0 07-03 08:14
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? No -1 $-1 96¢ $-1 $-0 07-02 01:39
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes -6 $-1 $-0 +$0 06-27 01:17
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? Yes -3 $-0 12¢ $-0 +$0 06-27 01:15
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No -2 $-0 $-0 +$0 07-18 19:58