Klutzy-Haste — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$432

Unrealized P&L

+$221

Hit rate

63.5%

Resolved

116

Trades

508

lifetime

Volume

$7.91K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$608

17 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 09-20 11:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Politics

50% 57% +$443

Other

45% 48% -$44

Crypto

3% 28% +$106

Sports

1% 0% -$73

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Yes	+150	$30	74¢	$112	+$82	04-30 09:54
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	+100	$39	96¢	$96	+$57	05-18 10:03
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+148	$133	56¢	$84	-$49	07-07 12:33
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+100	$72	82¢	$82	+$10	05-13 17:07
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+450	$46	12¢	$52	+$5	07-12 17:57
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?	Yes	+150	$57	25¢	$38	-$20	05-18 10:08
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+1,000	$19	4¢	$36	+$17	07-11 20:08
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+50	$28	56¢	$28	$0	05-05 09:39
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+45	$18	56¢	$25	+$7	05-26 10:28
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+300	$14	5¢	$16	+$2	05-09 18:40
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+500	$14	3¢	$15	+$0	05-05 09:19
will samuel alito announce his retirement by june 30 2027 20260630164636932 777 232	Yes	+25	$11	53¢	$13	+$2	07-27 10:07
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-539	-$154	1¢	$-6	+$148	07-07 11:53
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+34	$17	11¢	$4	-$13	05-26 10:41
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	+50	$12	3¢	$1	-$11	05-05 11:27
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+66	$6	2¢	$1	-$5	07-27 10:15
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+99	$11	1¢	$1	-$10	05-26 10:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	6	$300	400	300	+100	Yes	+$207	05-05 09:28
will javokhir sindarov win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	5	$299	465	0	+465	Yes	+$16	04-13 10:47
will aleksandra goryachkina win the 2026 fide womens candidates tournament	6	$224	37,004	0	+37,004	No	-$224	04-15 11:06
Macron out by June 30, 2026?	30	$198	0	200	-200	No	-$2	06-06 19:30
Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	2	$176	200	0	+200	open	—	08-25 07:21
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	4	$160	100	100	+0	No	+$10	05-18 09:58
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	3	$159	77	107	-30	open	—	06-29 12:09
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	8	$154	0	539	-539	open	—	07-07 11:53
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	1	$146	150	0	+150	No	+$4	02-09 14:51
netanyahu out by march 31 854	1	$143	150	0	+150	No	+$7	03-17 08:53
nothing ever happens khamenei	5	$136	267	0	+267	No	-$136	02-28 18:59
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	4	$133	148	0	+148	open	—	07-07 12:33
will magnus carlsen win the 20252026 speed chess championship	3	$131	200	0	+200	Yes	+$69	01-21 12:01
will sophia chikirou advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	12	$131	1,116	0	+1,116	Yes	-$131	03-17 15:18
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?	3	$124	150	100	+50	Yes	+$10	07-11 20:07
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	5	$113	130	0	+130	open	—	06-05 00:40
will fabiano caruana win the 2026 fide candidates tournament	5	$109	683	0	+683	No	-$92	04-06 16:19
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$109	150	0	+150	No	+$41	02-28 08:27
Will Clémentine Autain advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	1	$109	121	0	+121	open	—	08-25 07:22
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$102	132	0	+132	open	—	06-08 08:35
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	1	$96	100	0	+100	No	+$4	02-09 14:59
pam bondi out as attorney general by march 31	1	$91	100	0	+100	No	+$9	02-15 08:12
Will Fabien Roussel advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	1	$90	100	0	+100	open	—	08-25 07:22
chess mblueb jsinda 2026 04 08 r9 white	1	$90	100	0	+100	No	+$10	04-08 12:10
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	5	$87	100	0	+100	No	+$13	01-20 10:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	1	$85	150	0	+150	Yes	-$85	02-28 08:21
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	2	$84	50	50	+0	open	—	05-26 09:35
chess hnakam ywei 2026 04 11 r11 draw	2	$83	130	0	+130	Yes	+$47	04-11 11:26
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$82	117	0	+117	No	+$35	03-10 22:06
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1	$80	100	0	+100	No	+$20	01-20 07:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-20 11:50:45	Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	25¢	$22	0x886374…
08-25 07:23:25	Will Juan Branco advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0xa5ca59…
08-25 07:22:49	Will Fabien Roussel advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xf02564…
08-25 07:22:16	Will Clémentine Autain advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	121	90¢	$109	0x428214…
08-25 07:21:51	Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xa5a358…
08-25 07:21:25	Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	150	88¢	$132	0x4d7a53…
08-25 07:17:07	Will Segolene Royal win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	No	BUY	35	93¢	$33	0x46d79b…
08-06 23:14:50	will franois hollande advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0x4d9e42…
07-30 23:45:23	will franois hollande advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xff6d1b…
07-29 22:31:42	will franois hollande advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xa4fedd…
07-29 22:31:42	will franois hollande advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x3ea640…
07-29 22:31:42	will franois hollande advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x206fac…
07-29 22:31:33	will franois hollande advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x1df7a0…
07-29 22:31:30	will franois hollande advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	0	89¢	$0	0xc61977…
07-29 22:31:30	will franois hollande advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	0	89¢	$0	0xa2059c…
07-29 14:16:30	Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	62¢	$34	0x4ba7f9…
07-27 12:50:51	will franois hollande advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0xc0573e…
07-27 10:15:33	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	9¢	$6	0x4b15a1…
07-27 10:09:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0x0b00bb…
07-27 10:07:19	will samuel alito announce his retirement by june 30 2027 20260630164636932 777 232	Yes	BUY	25	43¢	$11	0xe59502…
07-27 10:03:13	will marine le pen advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	150	13¢	$20	0x8f7dcb…
07-12 17:57:37	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	300	11¢	$33	0x6f8372…
07-11 20:08:46	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x272f6a…
07-11 20:08:31	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x83a977…
07-11 20:07:46	Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?	Yes	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0xf67cf9…
07-08 23:01:49	Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	60	57¢	$34	0x79e738…
07-07 12:37:55	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x4cb60a…
07-07 12:35:34	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$4	0x0aa4fc…
07-07 12:33:35	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xc290fb…
07-07 12:33:04	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x2b5cdf…
07-07 12:31:32	Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	33	67¢	$22	0x87ec6a…
07-07 12:30:17	Will Philippe de Villiers be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xdeba17…
07-07 12:29:40	Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	35	91¢	$32	0x5ce24a…
07-07 12:29:23	Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	37	74¢	$27	0x305269…
07-07 12:25:44	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x039e27…
07-07 12:24:31	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	150	9¢	$14	0x04ef4d…
07-07 12:24:04	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	38	92¢	$35	0x45a58f…
07-07 12:22:53	Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x25940f…
07-07 12:21:17	will marine le pen advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	14	80¢	$11	0x20648a…
07-07 11:53:02	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	135	35¢	$47	0x04e03f…
07-04 14:30:59	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	56	27¢	$15	0x266bdc…
07-04 14:19:25	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	78	27¢	$21	0xdf3aaa…
06-29 12:09:26	Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	107	87¢	$93	0xbf8f58…
06-28 11:20:13	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	58	26¢	$15	0x29e109…
06-28 07:04:23	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	19	26¢	$5	0xfe91c3…
06-28 06:53:13	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	19	26¢	$5	0xb22040…
06-28 01:26:16	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x2c5995…
06-27 22:51:17	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	168	26¢	$44	0x2f1825…
06-19 08:45:25	Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	60	58¢	$35	0xbba4d3…
06-19 08:45:10	Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	200	20¢	$41	0xdd5421…
06-19 08:44:17	Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xc3ca33…
06-08 08:38:16	Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	27	78¢	$21	0x5363ae…
06-08 08:35:33	Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0xa8f030…
06-08 08:35:19	Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0xc3bb39…
06-08 08:35:00	Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	55	55¢	$30	0xce6332…
06-06 19:30:55	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xf34655…
06-06 10:10:25	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x174c43…
06-06 03:34:36	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0xb8fad9…
06-05 22:31:06	Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xbe136b…
06-05 19:28:43	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x4b9fce…
06-05 18:47:37	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xa9daf9…
06-05 18:44:15	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x74a4d5…
06-05 18:42:54	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x73e112…
06-05 17:31:03	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xbcde63…
06-05 10:55:19	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0e8052…
06-05 06:06:00	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x98efd8…
06-05 06:04:22	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x1c0374…
06-05 06:00:46	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x1c6976…
06-05 03:54:37	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x02e03e…
06-05 03:00:48	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x840a30…
06-05 03:00:43	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x5d749d…
06-05 01:49:10	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xada5a3…
06-05 00:40:49	Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x367f4d…
06-04 23:55:03	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x32757d…
06-04 23:52:31	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x11f9a1…
06-04 20:59:09	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x5d846e…
06-04 18:33:46	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0xe1d510…
06-04 17:52:37	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2d3af4…
06-04 17:48:55	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xcab96f…
06-04 16:49:39	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe83afa…
06-04 14:50:51	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xaff31c…
06-04 13:51:25	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa56607…
06-04 13:39:19	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x3b69e4…
06-04 13:03:06	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x211716…
06-04 13:02:22	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x371cdc…
06-04 12:58:33	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x76afb3…
05-28 11:33:23	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	70¢	$24	0x538a00…
05-28 11:32:25	Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	9¢	$22	0x4ec78a…
05-26 14:04:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0x3b620f…
05-26 14:04:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xcea19d…
05-26 14:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x401293…
05-26 13:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xb543c7…
05-26 10:41:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	49¢	$17	0x73ee40…
05-26 10:28:09	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	41¢	$18	0xcc5351…
05-26 10:10:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x9dbfd7…
05-26 10:09:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x32dbd9…
05-26 10:06:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xda7fe3…
05-26 10:05:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xe384c8…
05-26 10:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	123	4¢	$5	0x6c6ab3…
05-26 10:01:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	11¢	$11	0x79cd96…