Realized P&L
-$6
Unrealized P&L
-$37
Hit rate
42.3%
Resolved
2
Trades
427
lifetime
Volume
$11.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$27
Open exposure
$2.42K
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-01
last 06-04 11:20
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 1 day
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Politics
41% 50% $-6
Other
38%
Crypto
18%
Sports
3%
Tech
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
28 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -326 $-270 82¢ $-269 +$2 06-04 11:20
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -252 $-218 88¢ $-220 $-3 06-04 11:05
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No -215 $-212 99¢ $-213 $-2 06-04 10:49
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes -187 $-168 94¢ $-175 $-6 06-04 11:06
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No -173 $-172 97¢ $-168 +$4 06-04 11:03
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -145 $-142 99¢ $-143 $-1 06-04 10:48
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No -131 $-122 92¢ $-121 +$1 06-04 10:48
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No -107 $-106 99¢ $-106 $-0 06-04 10:51
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No -100 $-98 99¢ $-99 $-0 06-04 10:48
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -109 $-92 90¢ $-97 $-5 06-04 11:06
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No -100 $-93 94¢ $-94 $-0 06-04 11:05
Trump out as President before 2027? No -85 $-74 90¢ $-76 $-2 06-04 11:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No -69 $-58 90¢ $-63 $-4 06-04 11:06
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? No -58 $-53 94¢ $-55 $-2 06-04 11:11
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No -54 $-53 99¢ $-53 $-0 06-04 11:03
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -56 $-51 92¢ $-51 $-0 06-04 11:07
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No -49 $-49 99¢ $-49 $-0 06-04 10:49
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No -56 $-46 84¢ $-47 $-1 06-04 11:06
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -48 $-45 94¢ $-45 $-0 06-04 10:48
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No -47 $-44 95¢ $-45 $-0 06-04 10:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No -109 $-29 32¢ $-35 $-6 06-04 11:20
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -36 $-33 92¢ $-34 $-0 06-04 11:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes -38 $-27 68¢ $-26 +$2 06-04 11:20
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No -25 $-27 96¢ $-24 +$3 06-04 11:15
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No -25 $-15 88¢ $-22 $-7 06-04 11:14
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -22 $-21 94¢ $-21 +$0 06-04 10:49
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No -20 $-20 99¢ $-20 $-0 06-04 11:04
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No -19 $-16 84¢ $-16 $-0 06-04 11:08
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? No -16 $-16 100¢ $-16 $-0 06-04 10:49
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No -38 $-9 40¢ $-15 $-6 06-04 11:10