Realized P&L (90d)
+$190
Unrealized P&L
+$90
Hit rate
21.7%
Resolved (90d)
3
Trades (90d)
42
42 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$7.79K
$7.79K lifetime
Avg / trade
$185
Open exposure
$6.81K
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-07
last 05-10 19:39
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Politics
57% 100% +$192
Other
39% 0% $-1
Crypto
3%
Tech
0%
Sports
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
2 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -3,051 $-2,318 72¢ $-2212 +$107 05-10 19:13
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? No -1,383 $-1,287 94¢ $-1293 $-7 05-10 19:13
Netanyahu out by June 30? No -891 $-846 96¢ $-851 $-4 05-10 19:13
Trump out as President by June 30? No -667 $-655 98¢ $-656 $-1 05-10 19:14
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No -665 $-425 64¢ $-426 $-1 05-10 19:14
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No -417 $-402 97¢ $-403 $-1 05-10 19:14
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -111 $-97 88¢ $-97 $-1 05-10 19:18
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No -103 $-95 92¢ $-95 +$1 05-10 19:18
Weed rescheduled by June 30? No -95 $-92 97¢ $-92 +$0 05-10 19:18
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No -110 $-89 82¢ $-91 $-2 05-10 19:18
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -229 $-85 36¢ $-83 +$2 05-10 19:18
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No -84 $-75 91¢ $-77 $-2 05-10 19:19
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No -82 $-74 90¢ $-74 $-0 05-10 19:19
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -80 $-70 90¢ $-72 $-2 05-10 19:19
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No -68 $-66 99¢ $-67 $-1 05-10 19:19
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No -30 $-26 88¢ $-26 +$0 05-10 19:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? No -26 $-26 100¢ $-26 $-0 05-10 19:38
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -38 $-23 65¢ $-25 $-2 05-10 19:38
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch? No -25 $-24 96¢ $-24 $-0 05-10 19:38
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes -49 $-22 44¢ $-21 +$0 05-10 19:39
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? No -25 $-20 82¢ $-21 $-0 05-10 19:39
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? No -22 $-20 91¢ $-20 +$0 05-10 19:39
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes -22 $-19 88¢ $-19 +$0 05-10 19:39
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No -13 $-6 56¢ $-7 $-1 05-10 19:29
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? No -7 $-7 100¢ $-7 $-0 05-10 19:28
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No -8 $-6 86¢ $-7 $-1 05-10 19:29
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -65 $-6 $-6 $-0 05-10 19:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes -32 $-9 12¢ $-4 +$5 05-10 19:39
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No -6 $-3 41¢ $-3 +$0 05-10 19:24
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes -9 $-2 25¢ $-2 $-0 05-10 19:24