Realized P&L
+$21
Unrealized P&L
+$1
Hit rate
63.3%
Resolved
4
Trades
520
lifetime
Volume
$3.39K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$176
13 positions
First seen
2026-03-06
last 07-21 03:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
53% 50% $-17
Politics
45% 50% +$38
Crypto
1%
Tech
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
47 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x China Military clash before 2027? Yes +1,005 $45 $46 +$1 07-19 16:42
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes +100 $40 38¢ $38 $-2 07-18 01:36
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes -357 $-56 $-24 +$32 07-15 14:16
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes +250 $25 $19 $-6 06-18 02:32
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +56 $24 32¢ $18 $-6 07-18 16:04
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? Yes +25 $9 26¢ $7 $-3 07-13 14:33
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -22 $-4 29¢ $-6 $-3 06-05 14:32
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +29 $-1 18¢ $5 +$6 07-04 14:30
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes -113 $-6 $-4 +$2 06-11 00:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +18 $11 22¢ $4 $-7 06-26 02:24
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Yes +44 $3 $3 +$0 07-21 03:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +1 $0 36¢ $0 $-0 07-02 18:37
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +1 $15 30¢ $0 $-14 06-22 14:10