Troubled-Lining 0xdbc45d…4f4347
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Realized P&L
+$39
Unrealized P&L
+$181
Hit rate
72.8%
Resolved
247
Trades
7,949
lifetime
Volume
$49.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$1.11K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-15
last 06-15 06:13
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Politics
58% 62% $-24
Crypto
33% 77% +$97
Other
8% 25% $-35
Tech
1% — —
Sports
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
60 active days in 12wk • peak 1092 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +460 $200 94¢ $435 +$235 06-15 01:52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No -300 $-298 96¢ $-287 +$11 06-13 05:34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +148 $69 46¢ $67 $-2 06-09 18:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +179 $46 28¢ $49 +$3 06-14 21:31
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +229 $18 15¢ $33 +$16 06-14 23:42
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes +35 $31 88¢ $31 $-0 06-13 21:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +31 $30 97¢ $30 $-0 06-15 05:38
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +248 $31 12¢ $28 $-2 06-15 11:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +77 $26 29¢ $22 $-4 06-02 11:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +30 $22 72¢ $21 $-0 06-15 04:46
Will Elon register any party before 2027? No +19 $18 94¢ $18 $-0 06-06 21:32
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes +379 $43 3¢ $13 $-30 06-12 19:15
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No +13 $11 90¢ $12 +$1 06-06 22:34
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes +42 $10 28¢ $11 +$1 06-04 21:56
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -12 $-10 88¢ $-11 $-1 06-01 19:01
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +11 $10 93¢ $10 +$0 06-05 04:16
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 06-14 11:20
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +17 $10 45¢ $8 $-2 06-12 17:44
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +7 $5 78¢ $5 +$0 06-13 14:37
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes +1,005 $11 0¢ $5 $-6 06-13 20:17
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes +11 $1 19¢ $2 +$1 06-09 00:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +3 $1 62¢ $2 +$1 06-09 14:33
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +0 $-1 85¢ $0 +$1 06-15 05:08
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No +0 $2 95¢ $0 $-2 06-12 10:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No +0 $27 3¢ $0 $-27 06-14 22:36
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes +0 $9 1¢ $0 $-9 06-05 21:56
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes +0 $1 1¢ $0 $-1 06-02 21:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +0 $1 6¢ $0 $-1 06-12 16:57
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +0 $1 4¢ $0 $-1 06-07 19:01
Will Elon register any party before 2027? Yes +0 $0 6¢ $0 $-0 06-06 21:28