Expensive-Hubcap — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.45K

Unrealized P&L

-$139

Hit rate

88.3%

Resolved

575

Trades

8,477

lifetime

Volume

$669.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$79

Open exposure

$3.49K

15 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-13 03:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 128 days

Categories

Other

53% 89% +$1,028

Politics

43% 85% -$7,056

Tech

2% 85% -$651

Sports

1% 84% +$223

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-957	-$921	97¢	$-930	-$9	10-13 03:14
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	-713	-$677	99¢	$-707	-$30	06-02 02:00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-512	-$389	84¢	$-428	-$38	07-30 20:58
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	-413	-$392	98¢	$-403	-$11	07-08 05:42
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	No	-229	-$220	98¢	$-224	-$4	05-21 16:47
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	-206	-$183	97¢	$-199	-$16	05-01 04:51
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-192	-$178	99¢	$-189	-$11	06-06 08:56
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	-141	-$134	97¢	$-137	-$3	07-08 05:43
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	-72	-$68	96¢	$-70	-$2	05-26 03:01
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	-68	-$62	98¢	$-66	-$5	05-01 04:51
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	-68	-$63	94¢	$-64	-$1	10-13 03:14
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	-31	-$29	98¢	$-30	-$1	05-26 03:02
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	No	-19	-$16	96¢	$-19	-$2	05-26 03:03
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	-123	-$12	14¢	$-17	-$4	10-13 03:14
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	-8	-$7	100¢	$-8	$0	05-26 03:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	127	$20.1K	10,729	10,416	+313	No	+$370	03-30 09:21
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	144	$19.2K	9,449	10,036	-587	No	+$72	01-22 08:04
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	71	$17.5K	9,036	9,046	-10	No	+$218	04-26 15:08
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	81	$15.4K	9,028	6,729	+2,299	No	+$287	04-16 02:46
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	108	$15.3K	8,414	8,367	+47	No	+$354	05-26 02:30
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	134	$12.8K	11,504	2,655	+8,849	No	+$360	03-30 13:00
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	160	$11.8K	6,047	6,047	+0	No	+$226	03-31 01:25
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	42	$10.9K	5,682	5,270	+412	No	+$24	01-04 01:58
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	97	$10.1K	8,449	2,222	+6,227	No	+$375	04-27 13:26
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	84	$10.0K	5,017	5,111	-94	Yes	+$115	03-12 08:42
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	30	$9.6K	5,110	5,110	+0	No	-$130	02-27 12:44
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	81	$8.6K	4,341	4,396	-55	No	+$57	05-25 12:00
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	24	$8.2K	3,991	4,263	-272	No	-$2	05-12 22:59
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	37	$7.8K	3,841	4,040	-199	Yes	+$42	05-26 02:34
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	64	$7.1K	3,844	3,844	+0	open	—	06-02 01:59
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	53	$6.9K	5,864	1,289	+4,575	No	+$207	02-21 03:25
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	40	$6.9K	3,639	3,340	+299	No	+$62	05-22 23:58
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	47	$6.2K	5,960	283	+5,677	No	+$66	01-08 03:08
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	57	$5.9K	5,117	926	+4,191	No	+$145	04-01 14:02
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	68	$5.8K	2,986	3,008	-22	No	+$182	03-01 01:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	65	$5.8K	4,199	3,280	+919	No	-$2,299	05-26 02:35
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	33	$5.7K	5,785	0	+5,785	No	+$104	02-27 01:04
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	42	$5.7K	5,832	0	+5,832	No	+$160	02-09 21:43
will melania opening weekend box office be less than 3m	36	$5.5K	3,305	2,250	+1,055	No	+$16	02-01 04:45
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	31	$5.4K	5,457	0	+5,457	No	+$32	02-04 17:30
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	29	$5.4K	5,512	270	+5,242	Yes	-$4,877	04-03 05:11
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	154	$5.4K	2,734	2,797	-64	No	+$51	05-25 15:56
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	44	$5.4K	2,925	2,527	+398	No	+$74	01-24 04:50
us x venezuela military engagement by january 15 2026 392	30	$5.2K	5,319	530	+4,789	Yes	-$394	01-03 07:44
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	31	$5.2K	3,261	1,950	+1,311	No	+$39	02-18 23:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-13 03:15:02	Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	2¢	$1	0xaf951c…
10-13 03:14:51	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	123	10¢	$12	0x945976…
10-13 03:14:36	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	SELL	68	93¢	$63	0xaa0a68…
10-13 03:14:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	690	95¢	$659	0x255277…
08-07 08:54:43	Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0x7c2e14…
08-03 21:32:51	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	142	95¢	$135	0xa4e958…
07-30 20:58:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	510	76¢	$388	0x2db2c1…
07-30 18:18:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0x958b8c…
07-17 17:03:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	142	94¢	$133	0xb12cfd…
07-08 05:43:20	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	141	95¢	$134	0xfbbc0a…
07-08 05:42:55	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	413	95¢	$392	0x54520b…
07-05 16:03:01	Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?	No	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0x0ccb2e…
07-05 15:59:17	Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?	No	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0xf2c80f…
06-17 14:58:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	49	97¢	$48	0xecbf0b…
06-15 10:57:48	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x4f9ab5…
06-14 15:39:40	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	88	95¢	$84	0x2332c1…
06-14 15:39:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$5	0x190190…
06-14 09:17:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xd7462c…
06-14 08:49:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x289302…
06-14 08:47:13	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xb0db66…
06-14 07:17:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xab8768…
06-14 07:12:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xb6fecf…
06-14 06:57:31	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x9e2b2d…
06-14 06:44:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xab7f74…
06-14 06:20:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0xf7d747…
06-14 05:59:48	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x228189…
06-14 05:56:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x77b4d6…
06-14 05:47:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x52f085…
06-14 04:56:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xc6f7c1…
06-14 04:55:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x641393…
06-14 04:23:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x006725…
06-14 04:21:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xfc70b0…
06-14 04:10:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xb8533c…
06-14 02:02:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xeade1a…
06-14 00:06:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x2d7b15…
06-13 23:57:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x8c4dae…
06-13 23:29:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x314ccf…
06-13 23:08:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x4a9e20…
06-13 23:07:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xcca172…
06-13 22:34:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$0	0x664601…
06-13 22:19:21	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$2	0xe09950…
06-13 22:06:42	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x356c8d…
06-12 07:24:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$4	0x208093…
06-12 06:13:10	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x6236d6…
06-12 06:12:48	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0xec260e…
06-06 08:56:42	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	57	94¢	$53	0x2e6c17…
06-06 08:55:07	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	57	94¢	$53	0x7f891d…
06-02 02:00:55	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	SELL	16	97¢	$16	0xc7e012…
06-02 02:00:41	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	SELL	713	95¢	$677	0x8008ed…
06-02 01:59:10	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	2,531	94¢	$2,392	0x0dc31f…
06-02 01:58:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	389	98¢	$381	0x645820…
06-02 01:57:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	1,734	98¢	$1,703	0x3e34c6…
05-31 19:14:53	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	128	94¢	$121	0xbedf2a…
05-29 01:11:53	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$19	0xadbf45…
05-29 01:11:36	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0xce6939…
05-29 01:07:13	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$10	0x96451d…
05-28 23:31:52	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0xde686d…
05-28 12:53:09	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xbbf430…
05-28 12:53:02	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x7517d4…
05-28 12:52:39	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	SELL	91	98¢	$89	0xe118a0…
05-28 12:49:22	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0x0dac76…
05-27 23:14:28	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x834d99…
05-27 23:01:14	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x64851d…
05-27 20:49:29	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x867cbd…
05-27 20:49:19	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x4cf479…
05-26 19:15:08	Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?	Yes	SELL	98	99¢	$97	0x853aa0…
05-26 19:13:28	Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xed855a…
05-26 16:28:46	Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	No	SELL	151	98¢	$148	0xf5dcf2…
05-26 07:10:59	Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x761578…
05-26 07:04:58	Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4b4f74…
05-26 04:36:17	Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa7ce00…
05-26 04:30:29	Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xcabc91…
05-26 03:06:46	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	64	97¢	$62	0x6b7d0c…
05-26 03:06:02	Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	SELL	129	99¢	$128	0x52af49…
05-26 03:04:00	Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	No	SELL	54	96¢	$51	0xe4427a…
05-26 03:03:49	Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	44	98¢	$43	0x95b99d…
05-26 03:03:41	Tucker Carlson federally charged?	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0x70935d…
05-26 03:03:30	Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xcda396…
05-26 03:03:23	Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	No	SELL	19	84¢	$16	0x42496a…
05-26 03:03:09	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x8c6286…
05-26 03:02:59	Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?	Yes	SELL	1	63¢	$1	0x751e39…
05-26 03:02:38	Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xaabf4b…
05-26 03:02:31	Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	4	92¢	$4	0x36ba63…
05-26 03:02:22	Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xe2c5c5…
05-26 03:02:13	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$14	0x592587…
05-26 03:02:01	Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0xd80e4b…
05-26 03:01:49	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	93¢	$12	0x4aeb9d…
05-26 03:01:33	Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	95¢	$7	0xa6f6f3…
05-26 03:01:21	EU dissolves before 2027?	No	SELL	9	96¢	$9	0xfcad57…
05-26 03:01:10	Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19m?	No	SELL	150	100¢	$149	0x0444ef…
05-26 03:00:58	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	SELL	184	100¢	$183	0x88c9ac…
05-26 02:37:55	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	1,250	98¢	$1,227	0x50431d…
05-26 02:37:17	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xf816c1…
05-26 02:36:54	Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	86	95¢	$82	0x87e381…
05-26 02:36:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	140	98¢	$137	0x7f3d75…
05-26 02:35:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	732	99¢	$727	0x1f6cbd…
05-26 02:34:48	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	932	98¢	$916	0x40b91d…
05-26 02:32:53	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1,856	93¢	$1,726	0x5f1c11…
05-26 02:31:46	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,461	98¢	$1,435	0xafda0e…
05-26 02:30:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	4,571	99¢	$4,516	0x3e006d…