Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 11?
open
Total volume
$4,650
$4,490 in 24h
Trades
24
Unique wallets
18
Liquidity
$10,168
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2026-05-12
First seen
2026-05-11
last 05-12 00:43
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-1.2¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $2.2K
vs crowd: 1% YES on $4.6K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 3 | — | $4.0K | $4.0K |
| 🐟 Fish | 1 | — | $50 | $50 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 14 | $54 | $591 | $537 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $2.2K | $2.2K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $22 | $1.7K | $1.7K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | — | $64 | $64 |
| Median | 1 | — | $499 | $499 |
| Below median | 2 | — | $20 | $20 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $2 | $36 | $34 |
| unranked | 3 | $30 | $20 | +$10 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Respectful-Clan 0x6e1d…d0fa | No | +2,298 | $2,223 | $2,223 | 3 | 05-11 05:28 |
| Essential-Hurt-Reset 0xeedc…91c8 | Yes | +1,457 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 05-11 10:46 |
| Evil-Pint 0x2322…3ede | No | +1,400 | $1,398 | $1,398 | 2 | 05-11 23:32 |
| Musty-Bit 0x3a23…0f72 | Yes | +1,100 | $22 | $22 | 2 | 05-11 15:16 |
| Impure-Brain 0x7152…faac | Yes | +800 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 05-12 00:43 |
| Good-Natured-Anesthesiology 0x6786…c034 | No | +500 | $499 | $499 | 1 | 05-11 23:08 |
| Happy-Default 0x4699…e03c | No | +334 | $330 | $330 | 1 | 05-11 11:48 |
| Reasonable-Mover 0x0f62…922e | No | +50 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 05-12 00:18 |
| Happy-Go-Lucky-Manicure 0xfe61…e9c2 | No | +34 | $34 | $34 | 1 | 05-11 05:33 |
| Unnatural-Sorrel 0xbd3b…4e38 | No | +20 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 05-12 00:23 |
| Tasty-Grid 0xdea0…4ba0 | No | +20 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 05-11 13:19 |
| Powerless-Product 0xf961…34dd | No | +10 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-11 10:46 |
| (anonymous) 0xfde3…67b6 | No | +4 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 05-11 10:46 |
| (anonymous) 0xca08…c267 | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-11 05:28 |
| Mushy-Sidecar 0xc72b…5b5e | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-11 10:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x5a52…629a | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-11 07:05 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-12 00:43:18 | Impure-Brain 0x7152…faac | Yes | BUY | 500 | 0¢ | $1 | 0xd0aff6… |
| 05-12 00:33:04 | Low-Session 0x2f54…77d8 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x21b13f… |
| 05-12 00:28:15 | Impure-Brain 0x7152…faac | Yes | BUY | 300 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x9efacf… |
| 05-12 00:23:09 | Unnatural-Sorrel 0xbd3b…4e38 | No | BUY | 20 | 100¢ | $20 | 0xf58d9b… |
| 05-12 00:18:58 | Low-Session 0x2f54…77d8 | No | SELL | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xa9609c… |
| 05-12 00:18:30 | Reasonable-Mover 0x0f62…922e | No | BUY | 50 | 100¢ | $50 | 0x70f8ac… |
| 05-11 23:32:45 | Evil-Pint 0x2322…3ede | No | BUY | 400 | 100¢ | $399 | 0xf9610a… |
| 05-11 23:08:44 | Good-Natured-Anesthesiology 0x6786…c034 | No | BUY | 500 | 100¢ | $499 | 0x48d9a3… |
| 05-11 22:14:29 | Evil-Pint 0x2322…3ede | No | BUY | 1,000 | 100¢ | $999 | 0xd65f4f… |
| 05-11 15:16:34 | Musty-Bit 0x3a23…0f72 | Yes | BUY | 500 | 2¢ | $10 | 0xe2bdb9… |
| 05-11 14:35:28 | Musty-Bit 0x3a23…0f72 | Yes | BUY | 600 | 2¢ | $12 | 0x022fc4… |
| 05-11 13:19:31 | Tasty-Grid 0xdea0…4ba0 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x078c84… |
| 05-11 11:48:26 | (anonymous) 0xd686…b1ed | No | SELL | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0xb9d640… |
| 05-11 11:48:24 | Happy-Default 0x4699…e03c | No | BUY | 334 | 99¢ | $330 | 0x20ed28… |
| 05-11 10:46:50 | Mushy-Sidecar 0xc72b…5b5e | No | BUY | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0xdc74e8… |
| 05-11 10:46:22 | (anonymous) 0xfde3…67b6 | No | BUY | 4 | 99¢ | $4 | 0xc416a6… |
| 05-11 10:46:18 | Powerless-Product 0xf961…34dd | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xa26f53… |
| 05-11 10:46:15 | Essential-Hurt-Reset 0xeedc…91c8 | Yes | BUY | 1,457 | 2¢ | $30 | 0xc2b420… |
| 05-11 07:05:01 | (anonymous) 0x5a52…629a | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x438eea… |
| 05-11 05:33:43 | Happy-Go-Lucky-Manicure 0xfe61…e9c2 | No | BUY | 34 | 98¢ | $34 | 0x17d062… |
| 05-11 05:28:28 | Respectful-Clan 0x6e1d…d0fa | No | BUY | 600 | 97¢ | $582 | 0x7103eb… |
| 05-11 05:28:27 | (anonymous) 0xca08…c267 | No | BUY | 2 | 97¢ | $2 | 0x66baea… |
| 05-11 05:28:27 | Respectful-Clan 0x6e1d…d0fa | No | BUY | 598 | 97¢ | $580 | 0xc66e09… |
| 05-11 05:28:25 | Respectful-Clan 0x6e1d…d0fa | No | BUY | 1,100 | 96¢ | $1,061 | 0xa6a125… |