Genuine-Freedom — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$366

Unrealized P&L

-$301

Hit rate

78.3%

Resolved

361

Trades

1,405

lifetime

Volume

$113.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$81

Open exposure

$3.03K

18 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 08-05 04:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Other

48% 86% -$37

Politics

29% 66% +$307

Crypto

22% 55% -$78

Tech

1% 83% +$175

Sports

0% 0% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-05).

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	-1,250	-$1,050	96¢	$-1204	-$153	08-03 23:23
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No	-658	-$633	98¢	$-645	-$13	06-11 15:57
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	-400	-$168	88¢	$-352	-$184	08-03 23:25
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	No	-300	-$285	98¢	$-295	-$10	05-03 11:13
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	-200	-$183	98¢	$-196	-$13	05-13 09:35
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	-134	-$156	96¢	$-129	+$28	08-02 23:30
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	-547	-$112	12¢	$-68	+$44	08-03 23:28
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	-280	-$98	16¢	$-46	+$52	07-02 17:14
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	-480	$21	8¢	$-41	-$61	08-03 23:26
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	-10	-$9	98¢	$-10	$0	06-18 14:21
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	-10	-$8	90¢	$-9	-$1	06-18 14:21
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	-10	-$8	88¢	$-9	$0	05-16 13:34
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	-300	-$38	3¢	$-8	+$29	08-03 23:25
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	-10	-$8	82¢	$-8	$0	05-16 13:34
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	-10	-$6	28¢	$-3	+$3	05-16 13:34
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	-16	-$6	14¢	$-2	+$4	04-30 09:40
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-22	$29	5¢	$-1	-$30	08-04 11:20
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	-10	-$5	3¢	$-0	+$5	06-18 14:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	22	$8.6K	4,829	4,829	+0	open	—	08-03 04:03
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	22	$7.5K	4,155	4,289	-134	open	—	08-02 23:30
Trump out as President before 2027?	35	$6.7K	2,998	4,248	-1,250	open	—	08-03 23:23
us evacuates beirut embassy by march 31	35	$3.8K	2,562	1,958	+605	No	+$182	03-03 23:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	8	$3.4K	2,230	2,230	+0	Yes	+$652	06-15 07:06
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	7	$3.3K	1,741	1,741	-0	Yes	+$7	02-23 20:23
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	8	$3.3K	1,800	1,800	+0	No	-$19	07-22 12:50
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	9	$2.8K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	+$10	07-17 03:16
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	14	$2.6K	1,800	1,800	+0	open	—	07-18 22:48
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?	18	$2.3K	860	1,665	-805	open	—	07-26 01:32
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	7	$2.3K	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	+$227	02-21 07:49
trump sued over tariff powers again by march 31	4	$2.1K	1,069	1,173	-105	Yes	+$83	02-22 15:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	7	$1.8K	1,695	1,695	+0	Yes	+$28	06-14 21:45
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time?	5	$1.7K	1,400	400	+1,000	No	+$51	02-14 06:26
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 15?	3	$1.7K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$145	07-15 22:54
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-18 05:30 UTC	49	$1.5K	900	900	+0	Up	+$111	01-18 05:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-14 17:15 UTC	40	$1.4K	1,507	1,507	+0	Down	+$49	01-14 17:16
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	37	$1.3K	375	1,033	-658	open	—	06-11 15:57
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-17 17:45 UTC	10	$1.3K	1,435	1,065	+370	Up	+$114	01-17 17:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-14 16:15 UTC	3	$1.0K	1,051	1,034	+16	Down	+$34	01-14 16:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-17 03:30 UTC	27	$952	1,000	984	+16	Up	+$12	01-17 03:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-17 16:15 UTC	3	$917	1,100	545	+555	Down	+$673	01-17 16:30
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-16 14:45 UTC	3	$910	1,000	1,000	+0	Down	-$10	01-16 14:49
will trump admin declassify foreign election interference files by july 17 20260714024406497	7	$822	745	745	+0	Yes	+$28	07-16 23:06
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-14 16:45 UTC	3	$815	857	851	+6	Down	+$36	01-14 16:48
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-14 15:00 UTC	6	$712	763	752	+12	Up	+$36	01-14 15:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	4	$674	350	350	+0	No	+$1	04-07 23:02
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-15 09:45 UTC	13	$665	827	814	+12	Down	-$95	01-15 09:53
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-14 15:30 UTC	6	$647	673	663	+10	Down	+$15	01-14 15:33
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-14 11:45 UTC	8	$644	700	690	+10	Up	+$46	01-14 11:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 04:39:44	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?	Yes	SELL	123	4¢	$5	0x6935ea…
08-05 04:39:33	chuck edwards out as us rep before december 31 2026 20260722142249984	No	SELL	34	13¢	$5	0xf28618…
08-05 04:39:18	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?	Yes	SELL	123	6¢	$7	0xf37d92…
08-05 04:38:54	chuck edwards out as us rep before december 31 2026 20260722142249984	No	SELL	64	15¢	$10	0x722ca4…
08-04 22:39:23	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?	Yes	SELL	37	6¢	$2	0x457846…
08-04 22:39:23	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?	Yes	SELL	40	6¢	$2	0x331195…
08-04 22:38:36	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?	Yes	SELL	40	6¢	$2	0x8aa350…
08-04 22:38:35	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?	Yes	SELL	60	6¢	$4	0x7adaf3…
08-04 22:38:11	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	SELL	4	5¢	$0	0x6f256d…
08-04 22:37:47	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	SELL	66	5¢	$3	0x57ee05…
08-04 22:37:44	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	SELL	53	5¢	$3	0xf7452a…
08-04 22:37:44	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0x2540a2…
08-04 22:37:32	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	SELL	163	4¢	$7	0x02171f…
08-04 22:36:29	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?	Yes	SELL	40	6¢	$2	0x7d999c…
08-04 22:36:29	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?	Yes	SELL	92	6¢	$6	0x7ba5e9…
08-04 22:35:56	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	SELL	109	4¢	$5	0xeac7b3…
08-04 22:34:17	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?	Yes	SELL	149	6¢	$9	0x0f822b…
08-04 22:34:15	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x85d041…
08-04 22:33:51	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	SELL	9	7¢	$1	0xd89d5c…
08-04 22:33:51	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	SELL	3	8¢	$0	0xbf6de8…
08-04 22:33:51	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	SELL	51	7¢	$4	0x215b4f…
08-04 22:33:36	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	SELL	31	8¢	$2	0x088e3e…
08-04 22:33:29	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	SELL	102	8¢	$8	0xaeb981…
08-04 22:33:29	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	SELL	26	8¢	$2	0x38166b…
08-04 22:32:57	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x58e2ba…
08-04 22:32:57	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $18B?	Yes	SELL	51	10¢	$5	0x562181…
08-04 22:32:30	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?	Yes	SELL	512	6¢	$33	0x1dc37b…
08-04 22:31:54	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	SELL	65	10¢	$6	0x5f24f5…
08-04 11:20:14	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0x46b77f…
08-04 11:19:30	tom kean jrptout as us rep before term ends 20260701205956589	No	SELL	34	55¢	$19	0x25070d…
08-04 04:54:14	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	12¢	$3	0x4b2fce…
08-04 04:54:11	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	107	12¢	$13	0x4c47b0…
08-04 04:54:11	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	12¢	$8	0x2efb6b…
08-04 04:53:08	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B?	Yes	SELL	625	13¢	$81	0x8b2a97…
08-03 23:36:57	will floridas save our homes from excessive property taxes referendum pass in november 2026 20260708194332212	Yes	SELL	100	35¢	$35	0x32eeab…
08-03 23:36:42	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?	Yes	SELL	38	9¢	$3	0x3a2a1a…
08-03 23:35:47	Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Yes	SELL	21	11¢	$2	0xd3730e…
08-03 23:34:32	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x23902e…
08-03 23:34:03	china ballistic missile launch by december 31 20260706145934670	Yes	SELL	87	17¢	$15	0x517245…
08-03 23:33:47	Decibel FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	39	32¢	$13	0x8fbbd0…
08-03 23:33:30	national rally forms a french senate group in 2026 20260706175436248	No	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x0574a5…
08-03 23:33:14	Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	84	20¢	$17	0x06cafe…
08-03 23:32:03	Will Trump resign before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x0549b9…
08-03 23:31:44	nasdaq round the clock trading by december 31 20260701160424096	Yes	SELL	70	74¢	$52	0x0b12a6…
08-03 23:31:06	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	308	13¢	$39	0x182571…
08-03 23:30:20	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	591	11¢	$66	0x5b6a57…
08-03 23:30:05	will an international court find israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by december 31 2027 20260629142909679	No	SELL	90	70¢	$63	0x07fbc5…
08-03 23:29:06	us announces military base in israel in 2026 20260630144955258	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x888742…
08-03 23:29:00	us announces military base in israel in 2026 20260630144955258	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xa0e657…
08-03 23:28:17	Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	547	21¢	$112	0xc8da52…
08-03 23:27:53	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1,291	16¢	$201	0xefa8a1…
08-03 23:27:11	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	400	30¢	$120	0xdbc66a…
08-03 23:26:54	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	30¢	$30	0x710678…
08-03 23:26:06	Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1,443	13¢	$191	0x0c0e58…
08-03 23:25:42	Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	473	8¢	$38	0xff5007…
08-03 23:25:29	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	300	13¢	$38	0x0fc17c…
08-03 23:25:06	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	136	71¢	$97	0x132fa7…
08-03 23:24:51	Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	480	22¢	$106	0x8bfe27…
08-03 23:24:38	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	200	36¢	$72	0x6e5f0a…
08-03 23:24:23	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	60	50¢	$30	0x932bf1…
08-03 23:24:06	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0xb5b13f…
08-03 23:23:51	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	2,100	93¢	$1,953	0x9e42cd…
08-03 15:21:56	trump calls nicki minaj hot again in 2026 20260708230616939	No	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0x1d2d70…
08-03 04:03:57	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	477	87¢	$413	0xa0de4b…
08-03 00:58:53	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	570	86¢	$493	0x2773a5…
08-03 00:58:06	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	349	87¢	$303	0x0a4c62…
08-03 00:38:32	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	500	94¢	$470	0xef55a6…
08-03 00:02:38	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	600	94¢	$564	0x30617f…
08-03 00:00:02	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	94¢	$940	0xf5de79…
08-02 23:59:33	Will Trump resign before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5729cf…
08-02 23:30:20	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	SELL	1,709	88¢	$1,503	0x6cf88f…
08-02 23:29:45	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	1,396	88¢	$1,232	0x83936e…
08-02 16:35:33	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	370	89¢	$329	0xba6bc4…
08-02 15:21:00	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0x0e56ac…
08-02 10:19:47	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	288	13¢	$37	0x012a57…
08-01 18:42:50	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	30	88¢	$26	0x30fa6f…
08-01 18:37:09	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	113	88¢	$99	0xd6ac89…
08-01 18:03:44	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xdde3fb…
08-01 12:57:11	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xcfca9c…
08-01 09:31:51	leopold aschenbrenner charged in 2026 20260730180201140	No	SELL	300	92¢	$276	0x36f79a…
08-01 06:48:59	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	126	11¢	$14	0x317fb6…
08-01 06:08:17	leopold aschenbrenner charged in 2026 20260730180201140	No	BUY	300	93¢	$279	0x4f7ea6…
07-31 16:05:30	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	70	91¢	$64	0xd7a592…
07-31 09:06:48	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	32	11¢	$4	0x9aae19…
07-31 03:53:05	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	97	91¢	$88	0xe4f9a8…
07-30 22:40:53	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	19	89¢	$17	0xf2cd54…
07-30 14:45:26	GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	457	2¢	$11	0x26bbec…
07-30 11:19:30	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	70	89¢	$62	0xf35e4d…
07-30 10:46:57	chuck edwards out as us rep before december 31 2026 20260722142249984	No	SELL	49	70¢	$35	0x37f873…
07-30 10:22:41	fcc revokes a major network broadcast license by december 31 2026 20260717235625543	No	SELL	62	94¢	$59	0xe53604…
07-30 10:18:48	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	33	11¢	$4	0xe4fe82…
07-27 06:32:06	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0x5f67a5…
07-27 01:33:24	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	SELL	189	91¢	$172	0x2bac9c…
07-26 11:33:21	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	SELL	253	91¢	$230	0x0f7298…
07-26 01:32:09	Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?	No	SELL	229	93¢	$212	0x66a27c…
07-25 11:14:49	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	402	87¢	$348	0xe495f9…
07-25 05:30:54	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	88¢	$876	0x057b64…
07-25 03:05:12	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0xc729d5…
07-25 03:03:10	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	500	89¢	$445	0x75b829…
07-25 03:02:40	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	216	88¢	$190	0xf0aa80…