Realized P&L
+$250
Unrealized P&L
-$2
Hit rate
81.1%
Resolved
403
Trades
1,166
lifetime
Volume
$327.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$281
Open exposure
$313
13 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-26 20:38
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 145 days
Categories
Other
51% 87% +$277
Politics
25% 84% -$31
Crypto
24% 100% +$68
Sports
0% 0% -$62
Tech
0% 67% -$3
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
58 active days in 12wk • peak 51 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +156 $147 96¢ $150 +$4 10-26 16:16
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes +7,350 $83 1¢ $62 -$21 10-26 20:38
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +25 $25 100¢ $25 $0 09-27 19:11
2026 Balance of Power: Other No +15 $15 100¢ $15 +$0 09-25 16:34
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? No +15 $0 99¢ $15 +$15 10-05 11:22
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? No -13 -$13 98¢ $-13 $0 10-21 18:19
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? No +10 $10 99¢ $10 +$0 10-03 17:29
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +9 $9 100¢ $9 $0 10-08 09:33
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 10-07 16:28
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 $0 08-09 17:05
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +3 $3 100¢ $3 $0 10-07 08:49
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +0 $0 22¢ $0 $0 10-21 19:12
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +0 $0 14¢ $0 $0 08-31 05:43