Realized P&L
-$1.40K
Unrealized P&L
+$76
Hit rate
18.9%
Resolved
9
Trades
3,725
lifetime
Volume
$318.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$86
Open exposure
$7.35K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-21
last 07-20 23:37
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
57% 57% $-1,442
Other
38% 50% +$40
Crypto
4%
Sports
1%
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 109 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +900 $668 74¢ $662 $-7 07-20 19:33
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +702 $580 92¢ $642 +$62 07-03 18:36
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +899 $713 70¢ $630 $-84 07-16 09:47
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No -700 $-189 55¢ $-382 $-192 07-02 13:24
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +689 $305 52¢ $361 +$57 07-20 09:55
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +400 $324 88¢ $353 +$29 07-18 01:42
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +366 $313 86¢ $313 $-0 06-14 21:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +306 $213 83¢ $254 +$41 06-15 18:36
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No +300 $236 82¢ $244 +$8 07-17 07:59
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +300 $264 78¢ $236 $-28 07-13 17:09
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No +250 $208 84¢ $209 +$1 07-20 23:37
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +300 $171 70¢ $208 +$37 07-01 18:57
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +240 $177 86¢ $207 +$30 06-18 05:09
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +257 $192 80¢ $207 +$14 06-17 04:23
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No +250 $207 80¢ $201 $-6 07-17 07:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +200 $97 99¢ $197 +$100 07-11 07:18
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No +232 $179 84¢ $196 +$17 06-26 18:59
Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026? No +200 $184 92¢ $183 $-1 07-11 12:14
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +200 $175 89¢ $178 +$2 07-10 09:49
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +200 $172 86¢ $171 $-1 06-24 13:33
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? No +200 $172 85¢ $170 $-1 07-10 03:41
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No -200 $-180 84¢ $-168 +$12 07-07 10:38
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No +200 $158 80¢ $161 +$3 07-11 12:13
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No +200 $130 74¢ $148 +$18 07-07 14:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No +150 $135 92¢ $137 +$2 07-09 08:04
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No -200 $-96 68¢ $-136 $-40 07-02 15:36
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +200 $132 67¢ $134 +$2 07-07 09:46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +154 $80 64¢ $99 +$19 06-15 06:12
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No -100 $-64 84¢ $-83 $-19 07-07 09:14
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No +100 $82 82¢ $82 +$0 07-19 22:22