Nice-Text — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

40.0%

Resolved

Trades

187

lifetime

Volume

$1.59K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$25

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 06-12 22:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

51% 0% $-15

Politics

41% 100% +$26

Tech

5% — —

Sports

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	+18	$10	46¢	$8	$-2	06-12 22:28
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	+100	$10	6¢	$6	$-4	06-12 22:25
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	+39	$7	11¢	$4	$-3	06-10 11:42
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	+83	$5	4¢	$3	$-2	06-12 22:25
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes	+17	$2	18¢	$3	+$1	06-11 21:01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	+115	$5	0¢	$0	$-5	06-12 22:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces seize another oil tanker by april 15	1	$50	142	+142	open	—	03-27 02:13
aws service disrupted by march 31 623	1	$50	73	+73	open	—	03-04 13:38
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$40	103	+103	open	—	02-11 23:53
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?	2	$35	67	+67	open	—	03-13 22:43
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	3	$33	198	+198	open	—	02-18 22:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	1	$30	380	+380	open	—	04-21 22:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	1	$30	94	+94	open	—	04-21 22:41
chatgpt full outage by march 15	1	$30	83	+83	open	—	03-04 13:39
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	1	$25	125	+125	open	—	03-08 23:31
will epstein data set 13 be released by march 31	2	$25	154	+154	open	—	03-27 02:24
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	2	$25	137	+137	open	—	03-08 22:55
Trump out as President by April 30?	4	$20	2,310	+2,310	open	—	04-25 22:56
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	1	$20	125	+125	open	—	02-11 23:54
ukraine hits moscow by march 31 2026	1	$20	178	+178	open	—	03-07 22:12
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	3	$20	202	+202	open	—	01-29 00:42
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?	1	$20	174	+174	open	—	02-10 22:22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	1	$20	143	+143	open	—	03-27 02:26
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$20	430	+430	open	—	03-13 22:38
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$19	75	+75	open	—	04-29 18:00
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?	1	$16	216	+216	open	—	02-10 22:22
russian strike on a nato member by march 31	1	$15	382	+382	open	—	03-07 22:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	1	$15	600	+600	open	—	05-04 23:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$15	236	+236	open	—	02-18 22:44
will epstein data set 13 be released by february 28	1	$15	51	+51	open	—	02-11 19:31
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	1	$15	167	+167	open	—	02-11 23:53
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	1	$15	41	+41	open	—	03-13 22:40
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	1	$15	65	+65	open	—	04-05 23:29
will the us next strike iran on february 3 2026 et	1	$15	359	+359	open	—	01-31 05:27
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?	1	$15	45	+45	open	—	03-15 18:09
will the government shutdown last 30 days or more 558 354 297 785 675	2	$15	267	+267	open	—	01-29 00:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 22:28:04	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x051fab…
06-12 22:27:27	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	115	4¢	$5	0x0beb48…
06-12 22:26:13	Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?	Yes	BUY	641	1¢	$5	0x572d8b…
06-12 22:25:28	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xce6de5…
06-12 22:25:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0xe331a0…
06-12 22:21:22	spacex ipo officially added to sp 500 in 2026 20260608202834697	Yes	BUY	36	11¢	$4	0x870f87…
06-12 22:18:00	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x725492…
06-12 22:17:54	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	49	4¢	$2	0x3c1838…
06-11 21:01:58	US strike on Mexico by December 31?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x638edd…
06-10 11:42:43	US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	18¢	$7	0x8ab312…
05-04 23:03:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x9050e2…
05-04 23:03:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Yes	BUY	600	2¢	$15	0x93e3ac…
04-29 19:10:24	Will James Comey leave the country by May 15?	Yes	BUY	185	3¢	$5	0xda4372…
04-29 19:06:26	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x85d53d…
04-29 19:05:42	Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x2fbd06…
04-29 18:45:28	James Comey mugshot released by May 5?	Yes	BUY	53	9¢	$5	0xfd167f…
04-29 18:00:08	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	36	11¢	$4	0x0608ed…
04-29 17:58:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x550bd9…
04-29 17:58:00	Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x4854ea…
04-29 17:57:50	Will Powell say "No Comment" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x6622f6…
04-29 17:57:44	Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x00b71a…
04-27 20:05:30	Trump ballroom project unblocked by April 30?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xfa1d30…
04-27 20:05:24	Trump ballroom project unblocked by April 30?	Yes	BUY	51	8¢	$4	0xffb1aa…
04-25 22:59:40	Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	6¢	$5	0x6cb410…
04-25 22:56:16	Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0x8447d9…
04-25 22:55:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x3f5839…
04-24 15:49:32	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?	Yes	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0xbf0d1c…
04-24 15:49:24	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?	Yes	BUY	316	2¢	$5	0xb7951c…
04-21 22:45:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	Yes	BUY	380	8¢	$30	0x22fb62…
04-21 22:44:10	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	939	1¢	$5	0xd69603…
04-21 22:44:06	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	786	0¢	$2	0x495785…
04-21 22:43:32	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	20¢	$10	0xeddc5f…
04-21 22:42:28	Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	BUY	778	1¢	$7	0x15ed42…
04-21 22:41:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0x1b9a44…
04-08 21:19:05	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0xfce049…
04-06 22:51:43	chatgpt outage by april 10 942	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x15aef8…
04-05 23:32:17	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	BUY	297	2¢	$5	0xa80228…
04-05 23:30:43	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,250	0¢	$5	0x8d9e0e…
04-05 23:30:37	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	476	2¢	$10	0x7d6d1c…
04-05 23:30:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	417	1¢	$5	0x41befc…
04-05 23:30:11	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	714	1¢	$5	0xb4371b…
04-05 23:29:45	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	65	23¢	$15	0x5af89f…
04-02 22:04:53	Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x28bbe5…
04-02 18:29:19	Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?	Yes	BUY	296	2¢	$5	0xb5d97c…
04-02 18:28:11	Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	BUY	385	1¢	$5	0x1fbae8…
04-02 18:25:09	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	BUY	278	2¢	$5	0xa5d668…
04-02 18:17:11	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	BUY	111	2¢	$2	0x14b1a3…
03-30 21:54:09	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?	Yes	BUY	75	12¢	$9	0x913dc4…
03-30 21:53:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xe319bd…
03-30 21:35:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0xf14da6…
03-27 18:53:17	U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x0d0504…
03-27 02:26:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	143	14¢	$20	0x8552ea…
03-27 02:24:39	will epstein data set 13 be released by march 31	Yes	BUY	63	8¢	$5	0xb141be…
03-27 02:24:25	U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x770ebc…
03-27 02:22:29	Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	BUY	148	3¢	$5	0x2b49ee…
03-27 02:21:01	US bank failure by April 30?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x932806…
03-27 02:13:13	us forces seize another oil tanker by april 15	Yes	BUY	142	35¢	$50	0xea8188…
03-27 02:12:13	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0xb2b6db…
03-20 11:18:59	will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	Yes	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x39dcc9…
03-20 11:18:55	will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	Yes	BUY	138	4¢	$5	0xd0ff3b…
03-15 18:16:07	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xdbdc2b…
03-15 18:09:53	Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0x38bb59…
03-13 22:44:39	left wing wave in french mayoral elections	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xb9e06c…
03-13 22:44:09	will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 22	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x63f487…
03-13 22:43:43	right wing wave in french mayoral elections	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x28e7e2…
03-13 22:43:27	Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?	Ceasefire	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0x00a306…
03-13 22:43:23	Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?	Leadership Change	BUY	41	48¢	$20	0xeedf1a…
03-13 22:40:25	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	Yes	BUY	41	37¢	$15	0xfb00c2…
03-13 22:39:53	SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x4581f8…
03-13 22:39:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x2b966a…
03-13 22:39:05	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xb52f6d…
03-13 22:38:43	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	Yes	BUY	286	3¢	$10	0x30c6ec…
03-13 11:49:31	iran leadership change by march 31	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x8bb34b…
03-13 11:48:03	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x11aa33…
03-13 11:47:15	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xe76c85…
03-13 11:46:39	trump approval up or down this week 857	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x7dd47b…
03-13 11:46:23	will jamie be said 10 times on the next episode of the joe rogan experience	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x280348…
03-08 23:37:31	anyone charged for doxing delta force commander heading maduro grab by march 31	Yes	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0x51d1e6…
03-08 23:35:01	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x124825…
03-08 23:34:43	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x0baea9…
03-08 23:34:09	will gas hit high 5pt00 by march 31	Yes	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0xd05ab4…
03-08 23:32:57	Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	24¢	$6	0xfaeb5a…
03-08 23:32:33	Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x240173…
03-08 23:32:21	Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0xeaa805…
03-08 23:31:49	KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30?	Yes	BUY	128	4¢	$5	0x98ac33…
03-08 23:31:29	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?	Yes	BUY	125	20¢	$25	0x2c256b…
03-08 23:31:09	will trumps approval rating be less than 41pt0 on march 13 2026 221	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0xeb0828…
03-08 23:30:55	will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 15	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xa219dd…
03-08 23:30:17	will trump post nuclear on truth social this week march 15	Yes	BUY	9	68¢	$6	0x199918…
03-08 23:29:27	andrew tate of tweets march 10 march 17 2026 0 99	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x6d13c3…
03-08 23:28:59	will iran claim responsibility for oslo embassy attack	Yes	BUY	119	4¢	$5	0x9680cf…
03-08 23:28:49	will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x5610dd…
03-08 23:26:15	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xa43938…
03-08 23:24:29	will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	Yes	BUY	35	29¢	$10	0x69bf83…
03-08 23:23:59	will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x4e2ecc…
03-08 22:55:49	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	Yes	BUY	144	7¢	$10	0x4360c9…
03-08 22:55:03	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x02e8ed…
03-07 22:12:39	ukraine hits moscow by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	178	11¢	$20	0x9325d9…
03-07 22:12:17	russian strike on a nato member by march 31	Yes	BUY	382	4¢	$15	0xaf0b69…
03-07 17:48:17	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	Yes	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x381347…