Realized P&L
-$170
Unrealized P&L
-$130
Hit rate
22.2%
Resolved
194
Trades
272
lifetime
Volume
$2.26K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$216
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 10-01 01:27
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 78 days
Categories
Other
47% 12% -$478
Politics
45% 29% +$379
Tech
5% 25% -$51
Sports
3% 20% -$11
Crypto
0% 0% -$8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
9 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +143 $35 18¢ $26 -$9 08-07 14:35
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes +59 $10 38¢ $23 +$13 07-13 20:56
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +138 $32 14¢ $19 -$13 09-22 22:15
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes +396 $30 4¢ $16 -$14 09-16 23:16
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +48 $15 28¢ $13 -$2 09-06 20:15
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +1,250 $10 1¢ $9 -$1 08-12 18:45
trump renames strait of hormuz to strait of trump by december 31 Yes +143 $5 6¢ $9 +$4 08-19 19:55
will ohio enact a data center moratorium by june 30 2027 Yes +56 $10 16¢ $9 -$1 10-01 01:24
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +18 $10 43¢ $8 -$2 06-12 22:28
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +5,000 $10 0¢ $8 -$2 08-12 18:45
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? Yes +158 $15 4¢ $7 -$8 09-04 01:13
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? Yes +33 $10 18¢ $6 -$4 05-23 15:15
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes +278 $20 2¢ $5 -$15 05-18 12:34
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +172 $5 3¢ $5 +$0 08-07 14:34
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes +286 $10 2¢ $5 -$5 07-13 20:55
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes +88 $20 6¢ $5 -$15 05-18 12:33
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes +45 $10 9¢ $4 -$6 08-02 20:40
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes +100 $10 4¢ $4 -$6 06-12 22:25
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Yes +250 $15 2¢ $4 -$11 05-23 14:46
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +286 $2 1¢ $4 +$2 08-07 14:36
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? Yes +36 $5 11¢ $4 -$1 09-16 23:15
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Yes +125 $10 3¢ $4 -$6 05-23 16:18
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes +26 $5 13¢ $3 -$2 09-06 20:06
US recession by end of 2026? Yes +39 $7 8¢ $3 -$4 06-10 11:42
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? Yes +14 $5 20¢ $3 -$2 08-30 11:58
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? Yes +17 $5 15¢ $2 -$2 08-30 11:58
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes +125 $5 2¢ $2 -$3 09-06 20:08
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +833 $5 0¢ $2 -$3 09-06 20:08
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Yes +23 $5 9¢ $2 -$3 09-06 20:10
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes +53 $10 4¢ $2 -$8 08-12 18:43