Realized P&L
-$1
Unrealized P&L
-$10
Hit rate
52.6%
Resolved
8
Trades
1,786
lifetime
Volume
$31.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$18
Open exposure
$270
15 positions
First seen
2026-01-06
last 06-29 02:32
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 6 days
Categories
Other
46% 50% $-2
Politics
30% 75% +$1
Crypto
25%
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
37 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No -100 $-99 100¢ $-100 $-1 05-29 04:59
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? No -70 $-60 90¢ $-62 $-2 06-17 19:58
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No -40 $-37 92¢ $-37 +$0 06-26 09:41
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -20 $-19 94¢ $-19 $-0 05-28 15:39
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -10 $-9 95¢ $-10 $-0 05-28 15:35
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No -10 $-9 94¢ $-9 $-0 05-28 15:38
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? Yes +58 $9 16¢ $9 +$0 06-25 01:38
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No -10 $-6 74¢ $-7 $-1 06-06 18:20
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? Yes +100 $9 $6 $-3 06-22 00:18
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? Yes +50 $6 10¢ $5 $-0 06-17 19:58
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes -30 $-4 $-3 +$1 05-28 15:36
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? No +30 $6 $2 $-4 05-29 03:24
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No +10 $2 16¢ $2 +$0 06-24 16:30
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes -40 $-1 $-0 +$1 05-28 15:37
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes -10 $-0 $-0 +$0 05-28 15:36