Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$25

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

60.8%

Resolved

497

Trades

4,161

lifetime

Volume

$10.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$474

30 positions

First seen

2026-07-30

last 10-27 07:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Politics

55% 47% +$8

Other

36% 50% -$42

Crypto

5% 47% +$8

Tech

3% 45% -$7

Sports

1% 75% +$8

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 196 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+70	$56	81¢	$57	+$1	10-24 22:49
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	+52	$48	90¢	$47	-$1	10-26 14:30
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+55	$49	82¢	$45	-$4	10-26 00:22
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	+34	$33	98¢	$33	+$0	09-18 22:25
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	+27	$21	82¢	$22	+$2	10-25 06:10
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+21	$18	92¢	$19	+$1	10-23 21:24
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	+17	$16	97¢	$16	+$0	08-31 13:53
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	+19	$16	82¢	$16	+$0	10-20 18:51
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	+15	$15	99¢	$15	+$0	08-22 16:14
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	+14	$14	96¢	$14	+$0	08-20 20:58
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+70	$15	19¢	$13	-$2	10-26 02:33
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	+14	$4	93¢	$13	+$10	07-30 23:53
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-13	-$13	94¢	$-13	+$1	10-18 08:58
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	+12	$12	100¢	$12	+$0	10-27 04:55
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+15	$11	81¢	$12	+$1	10-24 05:12
Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?	No	+12	$11	97¢	$11	$0	10-19 11:33
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	+11	$11	97¢	$11	+$0	09-20 20:01
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+11	$11	95¢	$11	+$0	10-26 00:23
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+11	$10	96¢	$10	+$0	08-20 14:36
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+10	$10	97¢	$10	+$0	09-11 19:50
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	+10	$9	97¢	$10	+$0	09-12 21:16
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	No	+11	$9	84¢	$9	+$0	10-13 16:17
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	+12	$9	74¢	$9	$0	10-25 21:07
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	+9	$8	92¢	$8	$0	10-03 04:20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+9	$7	84¢	$8	+$0	09-04 13:02
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	+13	$6	48¢	$6	+$0	10-27 02:59
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+8	$6	72¢	$6	$0	10-26 00:01
trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by december 31	No	+6	$6	98¢	$6	$0	08-19 14:25
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	+6	$6	97¢	$6	+$0	08-19 18:25
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	+17	$6	30¢	$5	-$1	10-24 17:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	104	$875	549	494	+55	open	—	10-26 00:22
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	37	$302	631	491	+141	open	—	10-26 02:33
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	56	$215	206	146	+60	Yes	+$4	08-11 22:58
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	44	$193	213	29	+184	Yes	+$2	08-12 22:41
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	42	$178	114	113	+1	open	—	10-21 04:28
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	53	$175	178	140	+38	open	—	10-27 07:31
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	22	$133	129	35	+94	Yes	+$3	08-12 22:16
iran coup attempt by december 31	28	$132	79	74	+5	open	—	08-26 00:58
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	16	$120	92	119	-27	open	—	10-21 12:27
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	60	$115	197	139	+58	Yes	+$2	08-12 21:53
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	34	$103	123	120	+3	Yes	+$6	09-19 20:42
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	14	$93	53	53	+0	open	—	10-03 13:52
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	25	$84	114	44	+70	Yes	+$4	08-12 04:50
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	11	$82	107	107	-0	open	—	09-17 15:08
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	33	$77	99	71	+28	No	+$0	09-11 13:06
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	29	$70	104	104	+0	open	—	10-23 20:46
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	28	$69	59	49	+10	No	-$4	08-30 19:56
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	18	$66	80	28	+52	No	+$3	08-30 20:01
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	18	$63	42	38	+4	open	—	10-16 20:23
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	9	$62	54	27	+27	open	—	10-25 06:10
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	27	$61	73	65	+8	Yes	+$1	09-13 21:23
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	29	$60	89	70	+19	open	—	10-17 17:22
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	13	$59	60	27	+33	Yes	+$2	08-12 16:08
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	31	$58	77	77	+0	No	-$5	08-08 02:21
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	20	$57	60	47	+12	open	—	10-25 21:58
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	12	$55	31	31	+0	Yes	+$1	09-15 17:34
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	39	$51	100	92	+8	No	+$0	09-29 19:25
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	12	$49	35	31	+4	Yes	+$1	08-01 00:36
Iran leadership change by November 30?	20	$49	46	45	+1	open	—	10-19 23:17
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	34	$49	80	68	+12	No	-$1	09-05 13:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 08:06:11	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x5e5f48…
10-27 07:37:47	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	13¢	$1	0x8361c6…
10-27 07:31:05	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xea58cd…
10-27 06:30:12	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x95877c…
10-27 06:29:29	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0xcebbc9…
10-27 05:12:23	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x80b545…
10-27 05:04:48	Will "Minotaur" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	1	48¢	$1	0x2122f7…
10-27 04:55:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x2ba271…
10-27 04:32:17	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x265f38…
10-27 04:10:26	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x2b1d46…
10-27 04:02:56	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	3¢	$0	0x01d5ed…
10-27 03:56:03	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xe0560f…
10-27 02:59:26	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x1990bf…
10-27 02:59:17	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0x35172b…
10-27 02:39:26	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x095416…
10-27 02:37:02	Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xcc6e9c…
10-27 02:15:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x2bb313…
10-27 01:48:05	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xbb92bb…
10-27 01:27:08	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xa5b3b5…
10-27 01:25:05	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xad08a5…
10-27 01:20:57	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x047b8b…
10-27 01:19:41	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x7ba1ba…
10-27 01:15:30	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x6b86a0…
10-26 23:59:09	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-02 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x66474f…
10-26 19:47:32	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	Yes	BUY	23	17¢	$4	0xd57092…
10-26 19:24:44	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x95f0ea…
10-26 18:37:15	Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xd9ab40…
10-26 18:35:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xf4b396…
10-26 18:05:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xe5a8f4…
10-26 17:53:47	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xf467c4…
10-26 17:27:17	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x835966…
10-26 17:19:00	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xc07e9b…
10-26 17:02:20	Putin meets with Iranian officials by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x52d518…
10-26 17:00:27	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 0%-3%?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xdc1262…
10-26 16:24:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xa59314…
10-26 14:52:11	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 21% or more?	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x4d5cd4…
10-26 14:30:50	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	6	92¢	$5	0x0ab58c…
10-26 13:59:20	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x80d003…
10-26 12:34:03	Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xe7bce3…
10-26 12:07:54	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x96e5ba…
10-26 11:15:15	Will "Minotaur" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x1ef81f…
10-26 10:37:50	Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x3667e4…
10-26 10:28:11	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x1c585a…
10-26 10:14:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-02 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0x31e9a5…
10-26 08:58:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x841c04…
10-26 08:47:39	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x8146ad…
10-26 08:15:41	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x284923…
10-26 08:05:09	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xdab0f9…
10-26 08:04:26	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x91a526…
10-26 07:51:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0x0025df…
10-26 07:45:48	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$10	0x5510e8…
10-26 06:32:05	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x56ab9a…
10-26 06:06:20	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 40%-45%?	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x524a27…
10-26 05:59:21	Trump meets with Putin by November 30?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xc9888f…
10-26 05:34:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x480edd…
10-26 05:05:20	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0x2ebff1…
10-26 05:05:20	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	46¢	$1	0x088dce…
10-26 04:45:51	Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xdaea64…
10-26 04:31:00	Will the Republicans win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x38f786…
10-26 03:15:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x3ee0c1…
10-26 03:08:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x747112…
10-26 02:57:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0x613281…
10-26 02:54:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0xbf62cf…
10-26 02:34:41	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xc4651a…
10-26 02:34:23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x5e2515…
10-26 02:33:08	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	64	20¢	$13	0x832c88…
10-26 02:30:32	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x8af127…
10-26 02:29:39	Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x3e1c8f…
10-26 02:11:51	Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x01528d…
10-26 01:55:15	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x4290ed…
10-26 01:54:23	Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x55f5c6…
10-26 01:54:17	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0xd60983…
10-26 01:53:20	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0xf43a72…
10-26 01:48:53	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	4	66¢	$2	0xcaac3d…
10-26 01:43:48	Will the Democrats win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xcf6358…
10-26 01:35:02	Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xf6804c…
10-26 01:26:54	Will "Minotaur" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x6897a9…
10-26 00:50:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	49	0¢	$0	0x5d0fd1…
10-26 00:31:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x33048b…
10-26 00:23:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$11	0x87d91a…
10-26 00:22:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x53fe3e…
10-26 00:21:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xee583a…
10-26 00:20:26	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x9c3292…
10-26 00:20:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x540061…
10-26 00:16:11	US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xdc7edd…
10-26 00:14:39	Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0xf4cf4c…
10-26 00:13:30	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x5fe16e…
10-26 00:08:12	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xc7065c…
10-26 00:05:48	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	24	20¢	$5	0x34570c…
10-26 00:02:18	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	54	0¢	$0	0x9a531f…
10-26 00:01:54	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x4e0ab5…
10-25 23:38:47	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xf46abd…
10-25 23:19:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x4f1fe9…
10-25 23:19:42	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0xc204df…
10-25 23:19:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xde7527…
10-25 23:04:06	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	3	20¢	$1	0x3605f6…
10-25 22:57:00	Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x829c98…
10-25 22:37:57	Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x2f5831…
10-25 22:14:54	Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x1852bd…
10-25 22:11:56	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x3b8e0f…