Warm-Secretary — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$585

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

521

lifetime

Volume

$308.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$592

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 08-05 16:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

45% — —

Other

31% 100% +$62

Politics

24% 100% +$523

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	18	$139.2K	146,481	82,402	+64,079	open	—	06-01 15:17
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	24	$16.0K	9,996	6,475	+3,521	open	—	05-25 05:38
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	8	$15.0K	0	15,969	-15,969	open	—	07-14 10:48
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	38	$14.6K	15,590	15,590	+0	open	—	06-18 20:02
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	3	$6.3K	4,988	1,800	+3,188	open	—	04-23 01:53
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	15	$5.6K	3,807	3,569	+238	open	—	07-31 19:56
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	16	$5.4K	3,155	3,036	+119	open	—	08-02 14:18
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	15	$4.7K	5,104	0	+5,104	open	—	06-27 02:20
will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	14	$4.4K	3,182	2,865	+317	open	—	07-31 18:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	10	$4.3K	2,938	1,935	+1,003	open	—	05-22 07:42
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	1	$4.0K	0	4,233	-4,233	open	—	06-18 19:40
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	12	$4.0K	2,570	1,553	+1,017	open	—	05-27 18:39
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	1	$3.6K	0	3,634	-3,634	open	—	06-17 18:37
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	5	$2.5K	2,749	0	+2,749	open	—	05-22 07:54
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	4	$2.5K	2,628	0	+2,628	open	—	05-26 17:34
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	30	$2.5K	1,608	1,116	+492	open	—	05-29 21:26
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	5	$2.3K	2,323	281	+2,042	open	—	06-15 12:08
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?	1	$2.1K	0	2,148	-2,148	open	—	06-17 18:38
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?	5	$2.1K	1,176	1,176	+0	open	—	05-22 05:29
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	5	$2.1K	2,048	77	+1,970	open	—	05-28 17:42
Trump out as President by June 30?	3	$2.0K	0	2,056	-2,056	open	—	06-17 18:39
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	6	$2.0K	1,172	897	+275	open	—	05-22 23:58
will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	24	$1.9K	1,065	948	+117	open	—	04-19 17:38
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026?	9	$1.9K	1,965	0	+1,965	open	—	05-22 11:36
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 19	26	$1.9K	1,262	1,104	+158	open	—	04-19 17:49
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	5	$1.8K	2,093	0	+2,093	open	—	05-26 17:42
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	6	$1.8K	1,184	1,184	+0	open	—	04-23 00:50
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?	4	$1.8K	706	1,123	-418	open	—	06-26 08:12
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	3	$1.7K	1,810	0	+1,810	open	—	05-22 03:28
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	18	$1.6K	0	2,546	-2,546	open	—	06-18 14:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 16:50:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by september 30 20260730004207224	No	BUY	332	96¢	$320	0x2c5f71…
08-02 14:18:21	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	355	90¢	$320	0x03a185…
08-02 02:07:11	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	474	88¢	$417	0x3f8509…
08-01 06:58:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	948	87¢	$825	0x132909…
08-01 04:35:02	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	272	85¢	$231	0xa65a82…
08-01 04:10:42	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xe8d66d…
08-01 03:02:47	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0x74d8f2…
08-01 02:56:53	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	485	85¢	$412	0x60cdf8…
07-31 19:56:00	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	714	58¢	$416	0x6afa1e…
07-31 19:53:09	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	2,855	62¢	$1,773	0x6a4f11…
07-31 18:53:48	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	317	99¢	$314	0x0c5cd0…
07-31 18:15:42	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	120	90¢	$108	0x0e1d8d…
07-31 18:14:41	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	159	90¢	$143	0x0c22d1…
07-31 18:14:17	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	130	90¢	$117	0xba8a15…
07-31 18:14:14	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	28	90¢	$26	0x8744fa…
07-31 18:14:06	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	19	90¢	$17	0x27599b…
07-31 18:14:05	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	199	90¢	$179	0x87368a…
07-31 18:14:05	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0x844182…
07-31 18:14:05	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	99	90¢	$89	0x311bff…
07-31 18:14:03	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	485	90¢	$437	0x6a1734…
07-31 18:14:03	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0x49cd3b…
07-31 18:13:00	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	354	94¢	$333	0x9742f1…
07-31 18:12:21	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	810	98¢	$795	0xea8702…
07-31 18:00:26	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	759	90¢	$683	0xa09774…
07-31 17:10:11	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	211	99¢	$209	0xd6e3c1…
07-31 16:48:42	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	739	92¢	$680	0x272df1…
07-31 16:28:33	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	250	98¢	$245	0x74d82e…
07-31 07:35:59	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	1,069	87¢	$930	0x854080…
07-31 06:35:14	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	6	98¢	$5	0xcca83d…
07-31 06:35:14	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	10	98¢	$9	0x592365…
07-31 06:35:11	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	200	98¢	$195	0x8bfcb4…
07-31 05:16:08	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0x25f0a8…
07-30 23:52:44	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0xb104b6…
07-30 23:51:11	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	635	97¢	$615	0x4062b3…
07-30 23:50:42	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	SELL	110	97¢	$106	0xfd6158…
07-30 13:22:36	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	BUY	2,982	47¢	$1,397	0x8d1779…
07-30 13:22:14	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1,507	95¢	$1,437	0xfbb8c5…
07-30 11:43:14	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xcd51da…
07-29 18:10:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	671	76¢	$510	0xda5548…
07-29 18:09:47	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	142	70¢	$99	0x2d109e…
07-29 18:09:32	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	138	86¢	$119	0xf802b6…
07-29 18:09:14	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	318	95¢	$301	0x88949d…
07-28 17:16:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	141	79¢	$111	0xc7a0b9…
07-28 05:45:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x451ff9…
07-28 05:43:54	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	115	89¢	$102	0x021c7b…
07-28 05:43:09	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	142	74¢	$105	0x4ab7a2…
07-27 17:27:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	410	78¢	$320	0x7ff1cc…
07-27 15:55:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	847	84¢	$711	0x2b5d6c…
07-27 14:51:13	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0xacbe54…
07-27 14:20:37	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x443cbe…
07-27 12:16:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x2981c7…
07-27 04:37:10	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xe4ad0e…
07-26 14:51:45	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x149988…
07-26 14:29:01	Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	1,219	95¢	$1,158	0x658b10…
07-26 09:46:31	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x6bcc44…
07-23 18:46:57	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	245	95¢	$233	0x2b61a6…
07-23 18:23:30	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	60	95¢	$57	0x05a4a7…
07-23 16:31:42	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xef1b07…
07-23 14:25:51	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	259	95¢	$246	0x9a8606…
07-23 14:25:51	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	240	95¢	$228	0x2d0c0e…
07-22 13:06:16	japan declassifies new ufo files in 2026	No	SELL	33	88¢	$29	0x87823d…
07-21 16:14:28	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	284	71¢	$201	0x609b93…
07-14 10:50:26	Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	143	96¢	$137	0x5a559d…
07-14 10:50:10	Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	26	96¢	$25	0x105ac3…
07-14 10:50:02	Will Bill Clinton be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	206	97¢	$199	0x7a7902…
07-14 10:49:44	Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	653	97¢	$634	0x65000c…
07-14 10:49:37	Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,092	96¢	$1,045	0xc19563…
07-14 10:48:56	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	243	96¢	$234	0xf58b81…
07-14 10:48:56	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	383	96¢	$369	0x01cbd1…
07-14 10:48:55	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	368	96¢	$354	0x082f0a…
07-14 10:48:53	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	789	96¢	$759	0x6f1449…
07-12 08:59:29	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0x6058da…
07-12 08:59:28	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	88¢	$6	0x0c5724…
07-09 02:30:56	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	51	87¢	$45	0xf0c898…
07-08 18:32:20	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	86¢	$43	0xdef6ac…
07-08 01:10:23	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	91	85¢	$77	0xeec5b8…
07-03 10:11:28	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	84¢	$20	0x043c9d…
07-02 09:01:01	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	84¢	$29	0xe6aa2f…
07-01 22:42:55	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	84¢	$13	0xcf8ea8…
06-30 08:02:56	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x590966…
06-27 02:20:13	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	97¢	$75	0x45effe…
06-27 02:19:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	76	99¢	$75	0x4c5d26…
06-26 13:46:40	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	280	97¢	$270	0x133138…
06-26 13:46:18	Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$33	0xb0db21…
06-26 13:46:06	Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	SELL	232	100¢	$232	0x6e5e43…
06-26 08:26:10	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	303	93¢	$280	0x8af157…
06-26 08:25:28	Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	SELL	275	99¢	$272	0xbe6a71…
06-26 08:23:34	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	216	93¢	$200	0xe8a036…
06-26 08:23:25	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x51492b…
06-26 08:23:13	Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	SELL	208	99¢	$207	0x9c4525…
06-26 08:22:38	Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x1ab3cc…
06-26 08:22:25	Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0x508e3e…
06-26 08:21:55	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	770	91¢	$700	0xe68674…
06-26 08:21:38	Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	SELL	232	100¢	$232	0xe49ec3…
06-26 08:21:26	Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	SELL	208	100¢	$207	0x87dfe6…
06-26 08:21:14	Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	SELL	275	99¢	$274	0x20cd5e…
06-26 08:20:10	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	227	88¢	$200	0x28f8d3…
06-26 08:15:41	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,099	91¢	$1,000	0xda6759…
06-26 08:15:08	UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	No	SELL	1,166	97¢	$1,127	0x15a801…
06-26 08:14:20	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	325	92¢	$300	0x24edb3…