Realized P&L
-$24
Unrealized P&L
+$7
Hit rate
57.7%
Resolved
17
Trades
219
lifetime
Volume
$567
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$74
21 positions
First seen
2026-03-30
last 06-30 10:21
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Crypto
38% 55% $-7
Other
31% 33% $-2
Politics
26% 0% $-15
Sports
4%
Tech
2%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
30 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No +13 $9 100¢ $13 +$4 06-14 20:29
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +14 $11 86¢ $12 +$1 06-11 14:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +8 $7 100¢ $8 +$1 06-12 17:32
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? No -6 $-6 100¢ $-6 $-0 06-20 01:05
Megaquake by June 30? No +5 $5 98¢ $5 +$0 06-13 15:10
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +4 $3 100¢ $4 +$1 06-11 14:12
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +6 $3 52¢ $3 +$0 06-07 22:36
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No +5 $3 68¢ $3 +$0 06-29 15:05
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No +4 $3 72¢ $3 +$0 06-30 14:40
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No +2 $2 100¢ $2 +$0 06-12 11:12
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +3 $2 72¢ $2 +$0 06-26 20:10
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No +2 $2 82¢ $2 +$0 06-30 14:42
NATO article 5 before 2027? No +2 $2 92¢ $2 $-0 06-29 14:46
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No +3 $2 73¢ $2 $-0 06-30 14:39
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No +1 $1 82¢ $1 +$0 06-11 12:41
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +1 $1 94¢ $1 +$0 06-11 12:19
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 06-11 12:29
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No +1 $1 85¢ $1 $-0 06-28 11:10
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes +4 $1 19¢ $1 $-0 06-29 14:27
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No +2 $1 38¢ $1 $-0 06-30 14:41
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No +2 $1 $0 $-1 06-20 01:15