Realized P&L
-$653
Unrealized P&L
+$386
Hit rate
42.5%
Resolved
66
Trades
539
lifetime
Volume
$54.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$102
Open exposure
$9.09K
27 positions
First seen
2026-04-08
last 10-28 14:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 42 days
Categories
Sports
58%
35%
+$1,035
Other
29%
28%
-$1,707
Politics
13%
80%
+$19
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
29 active days in 12wk
• peak 12 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +2,717 | $2,101 | 82¢ | $2.2K | +$141 | 09-16 15:37 | |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | No | +765 | $715 | 98¢ | $748 | +$33 | 08-30 14:57 | |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | No | +752 | $695 | 96¢ | $721 | +$27 | 08-30 14:53 | |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | -714 | -$677 | 98¢ | $-703 | -$26 | 07-19 10:03 | |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | No | +657 | $601 | 96¢ | $632 | +$30 | 09-07 13:54 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | -488 | -$471 | 98¢ | $-478 | -$7 | 07-19 10:04 | |
| Yoon out of custody before 2027? | No | +400 | $371 | 97¢ | $389 | +$17 | 08-29 09:51 | |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | +300 | $282 | 97¢ | $292 | +$10 | 09-01 08:09 | |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | No | +300 | $279 | 96¢ | $290 | +$10 | 09-01 08:14 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +300 | $277 | 96¢ | $286 | +$10 | 09-16 15:37 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | +300 | $259 | 92¢ | $274 | +$16 | 09-06 15:39 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | +225 | $200 | 90¢ | $203 | +$3 | 10-07 15:00 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +200 | $186 | 98¢ | $196 | +$10 | 08-30 15:23 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | +200 | $192 | 97¢ | $194 | +$2 | 09-08 15:20 | |
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | No | +200 | $192 | 97¢ | $194 | +$2 | 09-07 13:54 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | +200 | $188 | 97¢ | $193 | +$5 | 08-30 15:02 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +195 | $188 | 98¢ | $191 | +$4 | 09-08 15:13 | |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | No | +200 | $188 | 96¢ | $191 | +$3 | 09-06 15:39 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +100 | $101 | 97¢ | $97 | -$4 | 08-30 15:07 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | +100 | $94 | 96¢ | $96 | +$2 | 09-06 15:39 | |
| Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? | No | +100 | $95 | 95¢ | $95 | +$0 | 09-08 15:24 | |
| Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? | No | +100 | $96 | 95¢ | $95 | $0 | 09-12 03:20 | |
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | No | +100 | $87 | 91¢ | $91 | +$4 | 09-12 22:59 | |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? | No | +80 | $54 | 97¢ | $78 | +$23 | 09-08 15:15 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | +100 | $59 | 70¢ | $70 | +$12 | 09-16 15:36 | |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | Yes | +280 | $29 | 12¢ | $32 | +$4 | 10-28 14:57 | |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | Yes | -581 | -$75 | 3¢ | $-18 | +$57 | 06-19 14:09 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 2 | $5.0K | 11,927 | 5,964 | +5,964 | Yes | +$7,991 | 07-18 16:51 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 2 | $4.2K | 11,304 | 11,304 | +0 | No | +$961 | 07-15 04:56 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 7 | $4.1K | 8,347 | 2,139 | +6,208 | No | -$3,485 | 06-03 22:43 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 7 | $3.3K | 3,417 | 700 | +2,717 | open | — | 09-16 15:37 |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | 2 | $2.7K | 3,990 | 0 | +3,990 | Spurs | +$1,317 | 05-29 00:39 |
| fifwc eng cdr 2026 07 01 team to advance | 4 | $2.7K | 2,221 | 2,221 | +0 | England | -$740 | 07-01 17:51 |
| nba gsw lac 2026 04 15 | 2 | $2.0K | 2,795 | 0 | +2,795 | Warriors | -$1,974 | 04-16 02:44 |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | 4 | $1.9K | 3,420 | 0 | +3,420 | No | -$1,907 | 05-03 02:41 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | 13 | $1.6K | 3,398 | 3,398 | +0 | Yes | -$10 | 05-27 02:51 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | 2 | $1.3K | 310 | 1,024 | -714 | open | — | 07-19 10:03 |
| nba hou lal 2026 04 18 | 1 | $1.2K | 1,700 | 0 | +1,700 | Lakers | -$1,156 | 04-16 15:12 |
| fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 team to advance | 1 | $1.1K | 1,158 | 0 | +1,158 | France | +$58 | 06-30 21:53 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 2 | $1.1K | 312 | 800 | -488 | open | — | 07-19 10:04 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | 4 | $1.1K | 619 | 519 | +100 | open | — | 08-30 15:07 |
| NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic | 10 | $986 | 3,567 | 0 | +3,567 | Pistons | -$986 | 04-26 06:35 |
| Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? | 3 | $909 | 311 | 1,226 | -915 | No | -$26 | 08-01 16:04 |
| dota2 ngx flc 2026 08 20 | 9 | $822 | 900 | 900 | +0 | Nigma Galaxy | -$252 | 08-20 17:05 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 3 | $779 | 11,989 | 0 | +11,989 | No | -$779 | 07-04 23:25 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | 3 | $744 | 400 | 400 | +0 | open | — | 10-28 14:51 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | 2 | $715 | 765 | 0 | +765 | open | — | 08-30 14:57 |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | 4 | $695 | 752 | 0 | +752 | open | — | 08-30 14:53 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? | 2 | $636 | 677 | 0 | +677 | open | — | 10-28 14:52 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 3 | $605 | 415 | 220 | +195 | open | — | 09-08 15:13 |
| nba gsw phx 2026 04 17 | 1 | $602 | 1,400 | 0 | +1,400 | Suns | -$602 | 04-16 15:09 |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | 3 | $601 | 657 | 0 | +657 | open | — | 09-07 13:54 |
| nba cha orl 2026 04 17 | 1 | $600 | 1,538 | 0 | +1,538 | Magic | +$938 | 04-16 15:08 |
| nba orl det 2026 04 22 | 4 | $593 | 1,364 | 1,332 | +32 | Pistons | -$7 | 04-22 07:51 |
| ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 rma1 | 1 | $400 | 2,000 | 0 | +2,000 | No | -$400 | 04-15 14:32 |
| NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets | 2 | $394 | 448 | 448 | +0 | Lakers | -$206 | 04-25 00:34 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Ding Xuexiang in 2026? | 5 | $383 | 400 | 0 | +400 | open | — | 10-28 14:53 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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