Realized P&L
-$653
Unrealized P&L
+$386
Hit rate
42.5%
Resolved
66
Trades
539
lifetime
Volume
$54.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$102
Open exposure
$9.09K
27 positions
First seen
2026-04-08
last 10-28 14:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 42 days
Categories
Sports
58% 35% +$1,035
Other
29% 28% -$1,707
Politics
13% 80% +$19
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
29 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2,717 $2,101 82¢ $2.2K +$141 09-16 15:37
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? No +765 $715 98¢ $748 +$33 08-30 14:57
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No +752 $695 96¢ $721 +$27 08-30 14:53
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -714 -$677 98¢ $-703 -$26 07-19 10:03
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No +657 $601 96¢ $632 +$30 09-07 13:54
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -488 -$471 98¢ $-478 -$7 07-19 10:04
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No +400 $371 97¢ $389 +$17 08-29 09:51
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No +300 $282 97¢ $292 +$10 09-01 08:09
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +300 $279 96¢ $290 +$10 09-01 08:14
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +300 $277 96¢ $286 +$10 09-16 15:37
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +300 $259 92¢ $274 +$16 09-06 15:39
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No +225 $200 90¢ $203 +$3 10-07 15:00
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +200 $186 98¢ $196 +$10 08-30 15:23
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +200 $192 97¢ $194 +$2 09-08 15:20
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No +200 $192 97¢ $194 +$2 09-07 13:54
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +200 $188 97¢ $193 +$5 08-30 15:02
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +195 $188 98¢ $191 +$4 09-08 15:13
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No +200 $188 96¢ $191 +$3 09-06 15:39
Trump out as President before 2027? No +100 $101 97¢ $97 -$4 08-30 15:07
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +100 $94 96¢ $96 +$2 09-06 15:39
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? No +100 $95 95¢ $95 +$0 09-08 15:24
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? No +100 $96 95¢ $95 $0 09-12 03:20
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? No +100 $87 91¢ $91 +$4 09-12 22:59
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? No +80 $54 97¢ $78 +$23 09-08 15:15
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +100 $59 70¢ $70 +$12 09-16 15:36
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes +280 $29 12¢ $32 +$4 10-28 14:57
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes -581 -$75 3¢ $-18 +$57 06-19 14:09