Realized P&L
-$297
Unrealized P&L
+$36
Hit rate
10.5%
Resolved
10
Trades
4,600
lifetime
Volume
$37.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$511
26 positions
First seen
2026-01-31
last 07-13 18:13
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Other
56% 67% +$4
Politics
27% 33% $-308
Sports
13%
Crypto
4% 100% +$7
Pop-Culture
0%
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
75 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes +118 $72 57¢ $67 $-5 07-13 03:26
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No +80 $62 80¢ $64 +$2 07-03 22:02
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? No +63 $56 92¢ $58 +$2 06-03 13:14
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +95 $48 44¢ $42 $-6 07-12 05:54
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No -43 $-39 92¢ $-40 $-0 07-12 16:59
Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? No +40 $36 97¢ $39 +$3 06-02 16:24
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +41 $36 90¢ $37 +$1 06-03 05:56
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $16 20¢ $20 +$3 07-12 17:58
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +22 $24 86¢ $19 $-5 06-29 23:13
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes +60 $5 26¢ $16 +$10 07-08 04:40
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +27 $-6 54¢ $14 +$21 07-12 07:27
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No -17 $-14 82¢ $-14 $-1 05-29 21:41
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +17 $1 74¢ $13 +$12 07-13 00:16
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? Yes +59 $15 18¢ $11 $-4 06-30 15:32
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No +10 $8 86¢ $9 +$1 05-29 11:30
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +30 $4 28¢ $8 +$4 07-05 03:58
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +11 $6 56¢ $6 +$0 07-12 07:27
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Yes +15 $9 39¢ $6 $-3 07-08 15:09
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No +20 $3 26¢ $5 +$2 07-06 15:12
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? No -7 $-5 76¢ $-5 $-0 07-12 04:19
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 97¢ $5 +$0 07-08 08:49
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? Yes +26 $5 18¢ $5 +$0 07-01 20:21
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes -17 $-5 26¢ $-4 +$1 07-12 17:58
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes -30 $-4 11¢ $-3 +$1 06-02 22:42
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $1 $1 $-0 06-26 05:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +49 $4 $1 $-3 07-11 07:52