Realized P&L
-$326
Unrealized P&L
-$5
Hit rate
60.1%
Resolved
858
Trades
6,299
lifetime
Volume
$48.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$164
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-31 12:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 167 days
Categories
Politics
42% 45% -$190
Other
34% 50% -$235
Sports
15% 49% +$68
Tech
6% 62% +$36
Crypto
2% 50% -$5
Pop-Culture
0% 33% $0
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-31).
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -30 -$18 86¢ $-26 -$8 04-28 15:58
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes -13 -$7 97¢ $-13 -$6 05-19 19:00
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No -12 -$4 96¢ $-11 -$7 05-03 01:48
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No -11 -$9 92¢ $-10 -$1 07-14 16:10
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes -12 -$6 82¢ $-9 -$3 06-07 13:55
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes -12 -$7 72¢ $-9 -$2 04-28 15:58
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No -8 -$6 97¢ $-8 -$2 05-11 07:03
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No -8 -$5 96¢ $-8 -$2 06-07 13:05
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -9 -$6 82¢ $-7 -$1 07-08 13:30
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes -10 -$5 66¢ $-7 -$2 05-15 16:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +6 $4 99¢ $6 +$2 06-15 15:00
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No +6 $4 96¢ $6 +$1 07-03 18:50
russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026 No +5 $4 99¢ $5 +$1 06-08 12:32
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes -8 -$6 62¢ $-5 +$1 05-19 19:01
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +5 $3 92¢ $5 +$1 05-09 18:31
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes -15 -$5 26¢ $-4 +$1 07-05 15:57
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No +4 $4 97¢ $4 +$0 06-08 07:46
Kash Patel out by December 31? No -5 -$2 82¢ $-4 -$2 05-19 19:03
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -30 -$5 12¢ $-4 +$1 05-19 19:00
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -2 -$2 96¢ $-2 $0 07-14 16:10
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No -2 -$2 97¢ $-2 $0 05-19 19:03
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes -13 -$9 15¢ $-2 +$8 05-06 20:50
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -85 -$1 2¢ $-2 -$1 05-19 19:00
trump meets with putin by december 31 No +8 $5 18¢ $2 -$3 07-02 14:03
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -9 -$2 17¢ $-1 +$1 05-19 19:00
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes -62 -$3 2¢ $-1 +$2 05-19 19:00
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes -20 -$7 5¢ $-1 +$6 05-19 19:01
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No -59 -$6 2¢ $-1 +$6 05-19 19:00
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No -42 -$2 1¢ $-1 +$2 06-07 13:04
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes -10 -$4 4¢ $-0 +$3 05-12 15:01