Past-Reverse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.2%

Resolved

Trades

423

lifetime

Volume

$4.90K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 08-03 21:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

39% 75% +$10

Other

38% 50% $-8

Tech

14% — —

Crypto

7% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	2	$91	82	82	+0	open	—	06-09 17:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$66	54	54	+0	open	—	04-27 06:50
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	3	$62	57	43	+13	open	—	06-09 11:00
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$56	37	36	+1	open	—	03-27 14:46
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	2	$54	31	31	+0	open	—	03-27 14:47
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$53	49	49	+0	open	—	06-15 12:07
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	3	$51	49	34	+14	open	—	06-30 18:49
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	2	$51	41	41	+0	open	—	07-02 04:23
Iran leadership change by April 30?	2	$47	30	30	+0	open	—	04-14 09:35
will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 30 2026 20260601225410821	2	$46	38	38	+0	open	—	06-25 09:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$44	26	26	+0	Yes	+$4	05-07 14:42
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	4	$41	64	64	+0	open	—	06-20 18:13
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$40	122	0	+122	open	—	03-17 12:37
gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	3	$40	41	20	+20	open	—	07-08 06:08
will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	2	$40	30	30	+0	open	—	07-01 07:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$35	46	46	+0	open	—	05-29 07:10
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	3	$33	52	13	+38	open	—	04-29 12:05
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	4	$32	95	95	+0	open	—	05-21 15:12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$32	71	71	+0	open	—	05-25 11:27
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	3	$32	45	13	+32	open	—	04-15 12:42
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	2	$31	23	23	+0	open	—	06-18 15:54
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?	2	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	06-13 03:11
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	3	$30	72	43	+28	open	—	03-24 11:05
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$30	54	0	+54	open	—	03-31 14:00
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	3	$30	40	18	+22	open	—	04-08 04:17
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	2	$29	22	22	+0	open	—	05-27 14:15
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	2	$28	18	18	+0	open	—	04-29 12:05
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	2	$28	28	28	+0	open	—	03-05 12:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$27	24	39	-15	open	—	06-13 17:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$27	18	18	+0	open	—	05-14 08:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-03 21:02:30	Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	87¢	$14	0x8d8292…
08-03 10:13:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xdbbf33…
08-03 10:11:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xfc9c70…
08-01 18:07:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xae00bc…
07-24 17:37:13	Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x36ddc5…
07-24 17:22:45	base fdv above 500m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x8f26a0…
07-24 17:18:36	will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x5b4395…
07-22 14:20:22	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	23	76¢	$17	0xf19331…
07-22 14:15:01	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x0c67ef…
07-22 14:14:24	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	13	79¢	$11	0x585ef6…
07-22 14:11:34	ostium fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	SELL	22	76¢	$16	0x737c1d…
07-21 07:28:30	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x64ffbc…
07-21 07:27:33	will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231	No	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xceff2d…
07-21 07:26:40	Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xc0c3c2…
07-21 07:25:31	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by august 31 20260718000915876 168	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xb8175c…
07-21 07:21:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x415385…
07-17 18:45:40	will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x4e204d…
07-17 18:18:42	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x597535…
07-17 18:16:24	Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x45d821…
07-15 07:07:01	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x28a1ff…
07-15 07:04:38	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x4d762a…
07-14 13:17:05	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	45	51¢	$23	0xe21cb0…
07-14 13:14:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xafdc9f…
07-14 13:04:13	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0x7165e4…
07-14 13:03:52	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	16	81¢	$13	0xeacc9a…
07-14 13:00:37	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x54bc39…
07-14 12:54:05	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	79¢	$11	0x9a836f…
07-14 12:48:59	over 40m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325654	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x584d4f…
07-14 12:26:32	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x3789f6…
07-11 10:26:11	ostium fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xf66fde…
07-10 18:30:59	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xb08967…
07-10 18:29:49	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0x8c7692…
07-10 18:29:23	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	16	84¢	$14	0x59f790…
07-08 18:43:29	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913 141	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xafa5eb…
07-08 18:27:20	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	13	87¢	$11	0xd48129…
07-08 06:46:52	Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xb1de1b…
07-08 06:40:46	ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xfe357c…
07-08 06:18:31	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	14	91¢	$13	0x16e2e7…
07-08 06:12:56	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	Yes	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x7224a2…
07-08 06:10:22	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xabf1b4…
07-08 06:08:02	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$20	0xc14f40…
07-06 13:47:38	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	United States	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x3e6c3b…
07-06 13:45:52	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x52d0e1…
07-06 13:45:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	15	88¢	$13	0xcf3f31…
07-06 13:40:49	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 17 2026	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x0f9ba3…
07-06 13:36:59	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	13	92¢	$12	0xdefeaa…
07-06 13:29:23	Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x91cda5…
07-06 04:36:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	28	2¢	$1	0x59ed5d…
07-06 04:35:26	will ansem flip pump by december 31 2026 20260702152126830	Yes	BUY	27	38¢	$10	0x88c341…
07-03 14:13:07	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xaa825c…
07-03 13:50:40	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xe82b0e…
07-03 13:46:14	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x87a739…
07-02 11:37:50	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x84a69b…
07-02 11:36:04	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xb48c1d…
07-02 11:32:35	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x4ff299…
07-02 04:23:49	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x1efada…
07-02 04:23:22	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0xaed405…
07-01 14:11:49	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xf278c5…
07-01 14:10:26	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x7aaab1…
07-01 08:00:58	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xc2346c…
07-01 07:49:43	will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	Yes	SELL	30	98¢	$30	0x280210…
06-30 18:49:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	34	91¢	$31	0xfad7e0…
06-30 18:47:46	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x495805…
06-30 16:39:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x81beed…
06-30 16:35:40	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x683117…
06-30 16:32:07	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 10 2026	Yes	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x083846…
06-29 15:38:04	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xcf0c1f…
06-29 15:36:50	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0xddb012…
06-29 15:07:40	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x91ec84…
06-29 15:04:16	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x4b22e3…
06-29 15:01:34	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 10 2026	Yes	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0x9f5535…
06-29 14:42:01	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x5865ea…
06-29 14:41:29	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	SELL	13	91¢	$12	0xac0b93…
06-29 14:16:13	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by july 31	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x2902cb…
06-29 14:14:02	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xcf2e92…
06-26 18:18:29	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x5d4d87…
06-26 18:15:10	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xfb24be…
06-26 17:42:35	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x92ca42…
06-26 17:32:40	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x69c7a1…
06-26 17:32:19	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	12	87¢	$10	0x37abf1…
06-25 11:00:50	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x363188…
06-25 10:59:55	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x98d27b…
06-25 10:57:40	over 10m committed to the laso finance public sale	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x97dc0b…
06-25 10:56:44	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0x58f518…
06-25 10:55:32	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026?	No	SELL	14	75¢	$11	0x28b65c…
06-25 10:53:43	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xd3f9ee…
06-25 09:55:07	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xef6e3e…
06-25 09:53:43	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	16	80¢	$13	0x856fb9…
06-25 09:43:05	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xfffac4…
06-25 09:38:53	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x7526f3…
06-25 09:37:07	will the next google gemini pro model be released by june 30 2026 20260601225410821	No	SELL	38	94¢	$36	0x72dc5a…
06-25 09:33:47	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xf5a6a9…
06-25 09:31:28	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x9f0d02…
06-25 09:28:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xa80e11…
06-25 09:24:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x16f94e…
06-25 09:21:11	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x61afde…
06-20 18:15:41	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x0cb425…
06-20 18:13:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	13	86¢	$11	0xadc34d…
06-20 18:13:05	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	19	95¢	$18	0x2f322c…
06-20 18:11:02	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x514c10…