Diligent-Scenario 0xdf273e…6ae6e4 Create alert
whale 16W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L (30d)
-$654
Unrealized P&L
+$1.58K
Hit rate
92.8%
Resolved (30d)
6
Trades (30d)
795
4,640 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$86.1K
$530.4K lifetime
Avg / trade
$114
Open exposure
$26.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-09
last 11-06 10:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 50 days
Categories
Other
85% 78% +$1,587
Politics
14% 85% +$471
Crypto
0% 50% -$175
Tech
0% — —
Sports
0% 100% +$8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 69 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +7,300 $6,572 95¢ $6.9K +$363 11-03 12:28
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +7,952 $5,797 70¢ $5.6K -$239 11-06 08:50
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? No +3,019 $2,679 94¢ $2.8K +$154 10-24 12:44
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No +1,666 $1,442 96¢ $1.6K +$161 11-01 10:14
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? No +1,558 $1,148 98¢ $1.5K +$374 10-23 23:30
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +1,326 $1,080 98¢ $1.3K +$222 11-04 12:14
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -1,272 -$1,136 97¢ $-1231 -$94 10-26 11:17
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No +1,070 $750 96¢ $1.0K +$278 11-06 10:56
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? No +800 $556 82¢ $660 +$104 10-26 11:15
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No -573 -$547 99¢ $-565 -$18 05-11 08:26
Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027? No +550 $444 81¢ $445 +$2 10-24 08:37
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +456 $381 94¢ $426 +$46 11-04 11:33
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No +411 -$174 97¢ $399 +$573 11-05 16:53
Trump out as President before 2027? No +400 $379 97¢ $387 +$8 11-04 19:59
New pandemic before 2028? No +345 $225 86¢ $295 +$70 11-05 07:26
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +312 $390 70¢ $220 -$170 11-06 07:09
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? No -204 -$219 98¢ $-199 +$20 10-24 23:26
NATO article 5 before 2027? No +150 $47 96¢ $144 +$98 11-02 17:08
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? Yes +800 $176 18¢ $140 -$36 09-11 02:19
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +142 $79 88¢ $124 +$45 09-28 17:48
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No +124 $40 96¢ $118 +$78 11-05 07:37
US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026? Yes +900 $502 12¢ $108 -$394 11-02 01:57
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +312 $84 30¢ $92 +$8 11-05 14:58
US x China Military clash before 2027? No +49 $46 98¢ $48 +$2 09-28 04:28
will china blockade taiwan by in 2026 Yes +1,920 $66 2¢ $44 -$22 07-04 12:35
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? No +50 $37 88¢ $44 +$7 09-18 13:34
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +100 $14 30¢ $30 +$16 09-23 10:00
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes +1,185 $47 2¢ $21 -$26 08-27 02:56
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +142 $51 12¢ $17 -$33 10-01 12:49
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? Yes +50 $22 12¢ $6 -$16 09-21 12:37