Diligent-Scenario 0xdf273e…6ae6e4 Create alert
whale hot 16W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$1.89K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.01K
Hit rate
97.2%
Resolved
133
Trades
4,786
lifetime
Volume
$542.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$113
Open exposure
$30.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-09
last 11-13 11:06
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 50 days
Categories
Other
84% 78% +$1,587
Politics
15% 85% +$471
Crypto
0% 50% -$175
Tech
0% — —
Sports
0% 100% +$8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 78 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418 No +6,500 $5,800 97¢ $6.3K +$476 11-12 20:47
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +8,152 $5,930 65¢ $5.3K -$667 11-07 16:26
Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? No +2,983 $2,911 98¢ $2.9K +$6 11-07 15:54
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? No +3,019 $2,679 95¢ $2.9K +$197 10-24 12:44
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No +1,666 $1,442 97¢ $1.6K +$181 11-01 10:14
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? No +1,558 $1,148 98¢ $1.5K +$381 10-23 23:30
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -1,272 -$1,136 98¢ $-1243 -$106 10-26 11:17
Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes +1,194 $1,159 98¢ $1.2K +$5 11-08 04:47
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No +1,066 $746 97¢ $1.0K +$288 11-07 10:07
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +785 $549 98¢ $772 +$223 11-07 10:49
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? No +800 $556 90¢ $716 +$160 10-26 11:15
Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027? No +765 $581 90¢ $693 +$112 11-12 17:28
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes +644 $624 99¢ $638 +$14 11-12 02:11
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No -573 -$547 99¢ $-566 -$19 05-11 08:26
Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027? No +550 $444 82¢ $451 +$7 10-24 08:37
New pandemic before 2028? No +446 $305 86¢ $386 +$80 11-13 09:40
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +355 $283 96¢ $341 +$58 11-13 11:06
Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes +290 $284 99¢ $287 +$3 11-08 13:40
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +312 $385 66¢ $204 -$181 11-10 06:01
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? No -204 -$219 98¢ $-200 +$20 10-24 23:26
Trump out as President before 2027? No +200 $185 98¢ $195 +$11 11-12 12:43
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +142 $79 92¢ $130 +$51 09-28 17:48
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +312 $84 34¢ $108 +$23 11-05 14:58
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No +100 $15 98¢ $98 +$83 11-11 20:06
NATO article 5 before 2027? No -100 -$196 98¢ $-98 +$98 11-10 12:24
Will the Opportunity Party win 7-9 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes +100 $94 98¢ $98 +$3 11-07 15:13
US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026? Yes +900 $502 10¢ $85 -$416 11-02 01:57
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? Yes +800 $176 10¢ $84 -$92 09-11 02:19
US x China Military clash before 2027? No +49 $46 98¢ $48 +$2 09-28 04:28
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? No +50 $37 93¢ $46 +$9 09-18 13:34