Diligent-Scenario 0xdf273e…6ae6e4 Create alert
whale 16W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L (90d)
+$315
Unrealized P&L
+$930
Hit rate
98.8%
Resolved (90d)
48
Trades (90d)
1,761
4,190 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$202.8K
$468.0K lifetime
Avg / trade
$112
Open exposure
$31.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-09
last 11-08 01:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 50 days
Categories
Other
84% 78% +$1,587
Politics
15% 85% +$471
Crypto
0% 50% -$175
Tech
0% — —
Sports
0% 100% +$8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 78 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418 No +7,300 $6,572 96¢ $7.0K +$399 11-03 12:28
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +8,152 $5,930 66¢ $5.4K -$508 11-07 16:26
Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? No +2,983 $2,911 99¢ $3.0K +$54 11-07 15:54
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? No +3,019 $2,679 94¢ $2.8K +$162 10-24 12:44
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No +1,666 $1,442 96¢ $1.6K +$162 11-01 10:14
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? No +1,558 $1,148 98¢ $1.5K +$371 10-23 23:30
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes +1,415 $1,391 98¢ $1.4K -$2 11-07 22:08
Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes +1,268 $1,233 100¢ $1.3K +$31 11-08 01:16
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -1,272 -$1,136 98¢ $-1240 -$104 10-26 11:17
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No +1,066 $746 97¢ $1.0K +$286 11-07 10:07
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +785 $549 98¢ $771 +$222 11-07 10:49
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? No +800 $556 88¢ $700 +$144 10-26 11:15
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No -573 -$547 98¢ $-564 -$17 05-11 08:26
Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027? No +550 $444 82¢ $451 +$7 10-24 08:37
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +456 $381 94¢ $426 +$46 11-04 11:33
New pandemic before 2028? No +345 $225 85¢ $293 +$68 11-05 07:26
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? No +291 $285 98¢ $285 +$0 11-07 22:28
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +412 $457 68¢ $278 -$179 11-07 10:24
Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes +240 $235 98¢ $236 +$2 11-07 11:50
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027? No -204 -$219 98¢ $-199 +$20 10-24 23:26
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No +164 $78 96¢ $156 +$78 11-07 17:11
NATO article 5 before 2027? No +150 $47 96¢ $144 +$97 11-02 17:08
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +142 $79 90¢ $128 +$48 09-28 17:48
US imposes new sanctions on China by November 30, 2026? Yes +900 $502 12¢ $108 -$394 11-02 01:57
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +312 $84 32¢ $101 +$17 11-05 14:58
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? Yes +800 $176 12¢ $100 -$76 09-11 02:19
Will the Opportunity Party win 7-9 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes +100 $94 95¢ $95 +$1 11-07 15:13
US x China Military clash before 2027? No +49 $46 98¢ $48 +$2 09-28 04:28
will china blockade taiwan by in 2026 Yes +1,920 $66 2¢ $48 -$18 07-04 12:35
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? No +50 $37 90¢ $45 +$8 09-18 13:34