Realized P&L
-$1.75K
Unrealized P&L
-$401
Hit rate
93.2%
Resolved
90
Trades
2,081
lifetime
Volume
$245.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$118
Open exposure
$10.7K
18 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 11-02 08:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 52 days
Categories
Other
46% 81% -$2,616
Politics
43% 97% +$1,114
Sports
8% 80% -$477
Crypto
3% 90% +$231
Tech
0% 100% +$0
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
34 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +2,105 $1,725 86¢ $1.8K +$75 07-20 16:17
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes +2,900 $1,993 56¢ $1.6K -$355 10-20 22:21
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,650 $1,284 82¢ $1.4K +$78 10-12 15:13
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,800 $1,864 41¢ $1.1K -$715 10-16 22:48
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes +1,000 $910 86¢ $855 -$55 09-25 01:25
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +600 $558 97¢ $581 +$23 10-29 17:16
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +600 $552 96¢ $579 +$27 10-16 05:33
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +601 $309 96¢ $574 +$264 08-15 05:04
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +600 $487 84¢ $505 +$17 08-14 01:40
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +419 $409 98¢ $411 +$1 09-24 15:54
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? No +402 $263 91¢ $366 +$103 11-02 08:36
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,105 $491 15¢ $305 -$186 07-24 11:46
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No -200 -$210 99¢ $-198 +$12 07-09 16:22
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +1,200 $169 15¢ $184 +$15 09-11 17:04
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No +167 $27 98¢ $163 +$136 10-30 07:30
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No +0 -$17 93¢ $0 +$18 08-06 00:53
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No +0 -$107 98¢ $0 +$107 08-17 12:39
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +0 -$33 98¢ $0 +$33 05-20 05:56