Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
open
Total volume
$1,403
$210 in 24h
Trades
42
Unique wallets
27
Liquidity
$1,234
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2026-05-17
First seen
2026-05-10
last 05-17 10:10
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 1 | — | $10 | $10 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 1 | $0 | $6 | $6 |
| 🐟 Fish | 6 | $16 | $127 | $111 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 19 | $367 | $810 | $443 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | $378 | $36 | +$342 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | — | $15 | $15 |
| Median | 8 | — | $317 | $317 |
| Below median | 4 | — | $401 | $401 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | $50 | $50 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | $18 | $18 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $10 | $10 |
| unranked | 6 | $5 | $106 | $101 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accomplished-Context 0x9060…790b | Yes | +1,256 | $360 | $365 | 5 | 05-17 10:10 |
| Different-Windshield 0xb220…5f71 | No | +393 | $391 | $391 | 6 | 05-16 16:49 |
| Mixed-Cane 0xabfe…54f9 | No | +246 | $234 | $234 | 1 | 05-16 14:54 |
| Great-Back 0x50f8…de0d | Yes | +226 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-16 16:57 |
| Even-Porpoise 0x8611…8911 | Yes | +155 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-16 19:31 |
| Opulent-Communicant 0x7f15…52f1 | No | +106 | $105 | $105 | 2 | 05-16 15:01 |
| Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | +53 | $50 | $50 | 2 | 05-14 20:46 |
| Any-Polenta 0x7c59…0c2c | Yes | +36 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 05-14 20:46 |
| Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | +30 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 05-17 07:35 |
| Lumpy-Fur 0x08b9…14d3 | No | +27 | $27 | $27 | 1 | 05-16 19:32 |
| Prime-Basis 0xb8fe…ce76 | No | +20 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 05-16 11:15 |
| Pink-Outfit 0x8575…87fe | No | +19 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 05-14 20:46 |
| Miserly-Hub 0xd16c…9100 | No | +15 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 05-13 21:57 |
| Pristine-Soul 0x5edc…bbad | No | +15 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 05-14 20:46 |
| (anonymous) 0xe907…cff6 | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-15 14:54 |
| Tame-Basement 0x0240…24b4 | Yes | +11 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-11 10:32 |
| Variable-Verification 0x3d5a…4c29 | No | +7 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 05-10 18:00 |
| Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | No | +7 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 05-13 02:42 |
| Alarming-Leg 0xcaf5…41ab | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-16 11:15 |
| Lavish-Truck 0xe7a0…69ae | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-12 21:56 |
| Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | Yes | +2 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 05-16 15:39 |
| Warped-Follower 0x7803…16ad | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-15 11:40 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-17 10:10:28 | Accomplished-Context 0x9060…790b | Yes | SELL | 19 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xa4931a… |
| 05-17 07:35:06 | Joint-Lard 0x942e…be27 | No | BUY | 30 | 100¢ | $30 | 0x355981… |
| 05-16 19:32:14 | Lumpy-Fur 0x08b9…14d3 | No | BUY | 27 | 100¢ | $27 | 0xf17609… |
| 05-16 19:31:55 | Even-Porpoise 0x8611…8911 | Yes | BUY | 155 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x5dd619… |
| 05-16 16:57:56 | Great-Back 0x50f8…de0d | Yes | BUY | 226 | 1¢ | $2 | 0xe9a4ea… |
| 05-16 16:49:24 | Different-Windshield 0xb220…5f71 | No | BUY | 100 | 100¢ | $100 | 0x208923… |
| 05-16 16:49:15 | Different-Windshield 0xb220…5f71 | No | BUY | 91 | 100¢ | $90 | 0xcdccc4… |
| 05-16 16:16:56 | Different-Windshield 0xb220…5f71 | No | BUY | 23 | 100¢ | $23 | 0x54f8f0… |
| 05-16 16:01:07 | Nocturnal-Period 0x73ab…5468 | Yes | SELL | 751 | 1¢ | $5 | 0x6c54d6… |
| 05-16 15:59:56 | Different-Windshield 0xb220…5f71 | No | BUY | 91 | 99¢ | $90 | 0xc8a0eb… |
| 05-16 15:57:37 | Different-Windshield 0xb220…5f71 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x5e8c39… |
| 05-16 15:56:48 | Different-Windshield 0xb220…5f71 | No | BUY | 84 | 99¢ | $83 | 0x439fdc… |
| 05-16 15:39:50 | Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x00fb8a… |
| 05-16 15:32:43 | Tame-Basement 0x0240…24b4 | No | SELL | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x051f1b… |
| 05-16 15:32:34 | Spectacular-Ligula 0x5754…cefb | No | SELL | 43 | 100¢ | $43 | 0x951af3… |
| 05-16 15:32:32 | Accomplished-Context 0x9060…790b | Yes | SELL | 451 | 0¢ | $2 | 0xd78c4b… |
| 05-16 15:01:39 | Opulent-Communicant 0x7f15…52f1 | No | BUY | 85 | 99¢ | $84 | 0x9f5b3f… |
| 05-16 15:01:16 | Opulent-Communicant 0x7f15…52f1 | No | BUY | 21 | 98¢ | $21 | 0x594c21… |
| 05-16 14:54:53 | Mixed-Cane 0xabfe…54f9 | No | BUY | 246 | 95¢ | $234 | 0x8e7ce5… |
| 05-16 14:54:53 | Spectacular-Ligula 0x5754…cefb | No | BUY | 24 | 97¢ | $23 | 0x9c5ec0… |
| 05-16 11:35:58 | Accomplished-Context 0x9060…790b | Yes | BUY | 15 | 13¢ | $2 | 0xf4df30… |
| 05-16 11:15:45 | Alarming-Leg 0xcaf5…41ab | No | BUY | 6 | 78¢ | $5 | 0xc5813b… |
| 05-16 11:15:44 | Prime-Basis 0xb8fe…ce76 | No | BUY | 20 | 77¢ | $15 | 0xe90c54… |
| 05-16 10:16:21 | Accomplished-Context 0x9060…790b | Yes | BUY | 273 | 27¢ | $73 | 0xa61917… |
| 05-15 17:29:46 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | No | SELL | 8 | 88¢ | $7 | 0xbd9822… |
| 05-15 15:39:52 | Accomplished-Context 0x9060…790b | Yes | BUY | 1,438 | 20¢ | $287 | 0x084448… |
| 05-15 14:54:38 | (anonymous) 0xe907…cff6 | No | BUY | 11 | 88¢ | $10 | 0x38a66d… |
| 05-15 11:40:55 | Warped-Follower 0x7803…16ad | No | BUY | 1 | 86¢ | $1 | 0x2089e1… |
| 05-14 20:46:57 | Pink-Outfit 0x8575…87fe | No | BUY | 19 | 94¢ | $18 | 0xa27cbc… |
| 05-14 20:46:57 | Pristine-Soul 0x5edc…bbad | No | BUY | 15 | 94¢ | $14 | 0xb45c68… |
| 05-14 20:46:55 | Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | BUY | 27 | 94¢ | $25 | 0x86cf61… |
| 05-14 20:46:55 | Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | BUY | 26 | 94¢ | $24 | 0x96105c… |
| 05-14 20:46:55 | Any-Polenta 0x7c59…0c2c | Yes | BUY | 36 | 44¢ | $16 | 0x5c3d1b… |
| 05-14 19:52:09 | Suburban-Turnip 0x5e07…7598 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x729c72… |
| 05-14 19:11:52 | Acrobatic-Western 0x21b3…5943 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 11¢ | $0 | 0x36b694… |
| 05-13 21:57:24 | Miserly-Hub 0xd16c…9100 | No | BUY | 15 | 85¢ | $13 | 0x1e0749… |
| 05-13 16:37:46 | Nocturnal-Period 0x73ab…5468 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 21¢ | $1 | 0xcbb2ea… |
| 05-13 02:42:01 | Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6 | No | BUY | 7 | 89¢ | $6 | 0xb7f8fb… |
| 05-12 22:46:02 | Grizzled-Filth 0xd9c9…7e10 | No | SELL | 9 | 91¢ | $9 | 0x1ab4ec… |
| 05-12 21:56:03 | Lavish-Truck 0xe7a0…69ae | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x904eea… |
| 05-11 10:32:06 | Tame-Basement 0x0240…24b4 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x0a65bd… |
| 05-10 18:00:31 | Variable-Verification 0x3d5a…4c29 | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xf4b1f0… |