Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-24 House election by 0%-3%?
open
Total volume
$323
$136 in 24h
Trades
54
Unique wallets
23
Liquidity
$1,242
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-20
last 10-29 09:54
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-14.1¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $140
vs crowd: 14% YES on $297)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 12 | $19 | $184 | $166 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 6 | $22 | $45 | $23 |
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | $1 | $13 | $12 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 3 | $1 | $13 | $12 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 6 | — | $140 | $140 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 6 | $2 | $71 | $69 |
| Median | 1 | — | $13 | $13 |
| Below median | 1 | — | $13 | $13 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 8 | $36 | $19 | +$17 |
| unranked | 1 | $5 | — | +$5 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +241 | $14 | $14 | 5 | 10-29 09:54 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +55 | $50 | $50 | 3 | 10-29 00:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x08b0…3f7c | Yes | +52 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 10-29 00:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xae2a…384d | No | +40 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 09-25 06:36 |
| Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | No | +30 | $28 | $28 | 1 | 10-29 00:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +26 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 09-25 06:36 |
| Gaseous-Tennis 0x66f9…adb9 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 09-25 00:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 08-31 13:00 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 09-25 00:33 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +20 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 09-25 06:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | +16 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 08-30 18:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x248c…a56b | No | +16 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 08-30 18:59 |
| Velvety-Burn 0x0380…073d | No | +15 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 09-24 19:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x8b92…6866 | No | +14 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 10-29 00:47 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +10 | $1 | $5 | 4 | 10-29 08:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 10-29 08:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x17dd…944c | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 09-24 14:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | +4 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 09-06 20:50 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 09:54:11 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 74 | 8¢ | $6 | 0xaba69a… |
| 10-29 09:54:11 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 74 | 8¢ | $6 | 0xaba69a… |
| 10-29 08:03:31 | (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | BUY | 10 | 92¢ | $9 | 0x7cdffb… |
| 10-29 08:03:31 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 10 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x7cdffb… |
| 10-29 00:48:31 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 21 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x8817b5… |
| 10-29 00:48:31 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 9¢ | $3 | 0x8817b5… |
| 10-29 00:48:31 | (anonymous) 0x08b0…3f7c | Yes | BUY | 52 | 9¢ | $5 | 0x8817b5… |
| 10-29 00:47:32 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x4a39d0… |
| 10-29 00:47:32 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0xdfc12e… |
| 10-29 00:47:32 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0xbf8569… |
| 10-29 00:47:32 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 30 | 93¢ | $28 | 0xbf8569… |
| 10-29 00:47:32 | (anonymous) 0x8b92…6866 | No | BUY | 14 | 93¢ | $13 | 0x4a39d0… |
| 10-29 00:47:32 | Glossy-Believer 0x764b…6bad | No | BUY | 30 | 93¢ | $28 | 0xdfc12e… |
| 10-11 10:28:33 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 66 | 4¢ | $3 | 0xc0d27e… |
| 10-11 10:28:33 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 66 | 4¢ | $3 | 0xc0d27e… |
| 10-07 10:12:00 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x8d6a2e… |
| 10-07 10:12:00 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 41 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x8d6a2e… |
| 10-07 10:12:00 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x8d6a2e… |
| 10-07 10:08:24 | Wretched-Myth-Downfall 0xe550…6f6e | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x397455… |
| 10-07 10:08:24 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x397455… |
| 10-07 10:07:51 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 76 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x8975f1… |
| 10-07 10:07:51 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 76 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x8975f1… |
| 10-07 10:07:48 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x0998f8… |
| 10-07 10:07:48 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x0998f8… |
| 10-07 10:07:48 | Wretched-Myth-Downfall 0xe550…6f6e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x0998f8… |
| 09-25 14:36:14 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x98224e… |
| 09-25 14:36:14 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x98224e… |
| 09-25 14:36:14 | (anonymous) 0x843c…0734 | Yes | SELL | 93 | 5¢ | $5 | 0xe3fe03… |
| 09-25 14:36:14 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 93 | 5¢ | $5 | 0xe3fe03… |
| 09-25 14:36:14 | (anonymous) 0x3ded…aa2d | Yes | SELL | 8 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x98224e… |
| 09-25 06:36:12 | (anonymous) 0x843c…0734 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x6ad1b1… |
| 09-25 06:36:12 | Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | BUY | 20 | 100¢ | $20 | 0x382529… |
| 09-25 06:36:12 | (anonymous) 0x3ded…aa2d | Yes | BUY | 8 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x80a2c2… |
| 09-25 06:36:12 | (anonymous) 0x843c…0734 | Yes | BUY | 32 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x80a2c2… |
| 09-25 06:36:12 | (anonymous) 0x843c…0734 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x382529… |
| 09-25 06:36:12 | (anonymous) 0xae2a…384d | No | BUY | 40 | 99¢ | $40 | 0x80a2c2… |
| 09-25 06:36:12 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 26 | 100¢ | $26 | 0x6ad1b1… |
| 09-25 00:33:17 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x4a597a… |
| 09-25 00:33:17 | Gaseous-Tennis 0x66f9…adb9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x4a597a… |
| 09-24 19:34:39 | (anonymous) 0x843c…0734 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x1ed880… |
| 09-24 19:34:39 | Velvety-Burn 0x0380…073d | No | BUY | 15 | 99¢ | $15 | 0x1ed880… |
| 09-24 14:20:50 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xc908f5… |
| 09-24 14:20:50 | (anonymous) 0x17dd…944c | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xc908f5… |
| 09-06 20:50:51 | (anonymous) 0x758d…5d9e | Yes | BUY | 4 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x84feff… |
| 09-06 20:50:51 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | SELL | 4 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x84feff… |
| 08-31 13:00:30 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 16 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x338783… |
| 08-31 13:00:30 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 4 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x338783… |
| 08-31 13:00:30 | (anonymous) 0xe40a…e4a2 | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0x338783… |
| 08-31 12:52:46 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 5 | 10¢ | $0 | 0xcf48bb… |
| 08-31 12:52:46 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 5 | 90¢ | $4 | 0xcf48bb… |
| 08-30 18:59:58 | (anonymous) 0x248c…a56b | No | BUY | 16 | 84¢ | $13 | 0xfc01e0… |
| 08-30 18:59:58 | (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 16¢ | $3 | 0xfc01e0… |
| 08-20 05:06:28 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0x2cb260… |
| 08-20 05:06:28 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 20 | 87¢ | $17 | 0x2cb260… |