Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.30K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.65K

Hit rate

72.0%

Resolved

Trades

938

lifetime

Volume

$66.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$71

Open exposure

$12.2K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-07 19:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Politics

55% 88% +$5,890

Other

31% 88% -$361

Sports

10% 43% -$1,291

Tech

5% 100% +$65

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No		+2,205	$1,592	90¢	$2.0K	+$403	10-30 23:00
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No		+1,500	$985	82¢	$1.2K	+$245	10-22 00:10
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No		+1,200	$1,000	100¢	$1.2K	+$198	09-11 10:51
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?	No		+1,071	$914	98¢	$1.0K	+$133	09-29 11:02
Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	Yes	—	+820	$491	70¢	$570	+$79	11-07 17:32
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	No		+518	$429	98¢	$505	+$76	08-15 21:24
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No		+500	$412	98¢	$491	+$78	10-19 19:52
Will Alberta join the US?	No		-485	-$472	98¢	$-477	-$5	07-08 23:04
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?	No		+500	$373	94¢	$470	+$97	09-06 08:11
Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	No		+996	$299	45¢	$448	+$149	11-04 23:44
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No		-400	-$411	99¢	$-395	+$16	10-08 18:48
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes		+408	$180	74¢	$300	+$120	11-07 19:22
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	No		+300	$264	97¢	$290	+$26	10-24 01:25
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?	No		+285	$253	99¢	$282	+$29	09-17 15:09
Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No		+300	$195	82¢	$246	+$51	10-15 13:57
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?	Yes		+500	$338	44¢	$220	-$118	10-12 20:41
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No		+200	$170	98¢	$196	+$26	07-01 07:14
macron out by december 31 2026 20260728190614227	No		+200	$170	98¢	$196	+$26	08-19 01:06
US x China Military clash before 2027?	No		-200	-$196	98¢	$-195	+$1	10-21 04:05
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?	No		+200	$170	97¢	$195	+$25	10-23 19:50
Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?	No		+200	$178	97¢	$194	+$16	10-23 09:53
Will an F1 race be held in Qatar in 2026?	Yes		+200	$98	73¢	$145	+$48	11-04 11:34
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No		+145	$119	98¢	$142	+$23	08-16 11:26
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	No		-136	-$132	98¢	$-133	-$1	08-15 18:41
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	Yes		+3,000	$303	4¢	$126	-$177	11-03 11:08
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No		+128	$87	96¢	$123	+$36	07-22 17:17
France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?	No		+117	$88	92¢	$108	+$20	10-27 06:00
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	No		+100	$90	98¢	$98	+$8	09-02 15:24
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No		+112	$80	78¢	$88	+$8	08-16 11:28
Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No		+100	$69	77¢	$77	+$9	11-07 15:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	5	$4.5K	500	4,100	-3,600	No	-$44	09-14 04:52
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?	25	$3.6K	3,852	0	+3,852	Yes	+$232	07-08 23:04
Paris curfew by October 21?	17	$2.9K	3,023	1,900	+1,123	Yes	-$1,310	10-19 16:35
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	13	$2.4K	1,400	1,400	+0	No	+$355	08-28 11:02
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	65	$2.4K	4,070	4,770	-700	Yes	-$853	10-04 12:36
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?	34	$2.1K	1,122	1,122	+0	No	+$82	07-07 12:07
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	11	$2.1K	1,100	1,200	-100	No	+$175	09-11 03:47
Will Les Républicains have the second-most seats after the French Senate Election?	2	$1.9K	1,346	755	+591	No	+$164	09-06 08:25
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	34	$1.9K	5,448	0	+5,448	Yes	+$3,596	03-02 22:05
Will Les Républicains hold 129-132 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	13	$1.8K	967	967	+0	No	+$137	10-12 14:03
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	11	$1.7K	900	900	+0	No	+$103	09-28 00:49
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	7	$1.6K	3,128	0	+3,128	open	—	09-28 01:28
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	12	$1.6K	2,205	0	+2,205	open	—	10-30 23:00
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	17	$1.5K	900	900	+0	open	—	10-25 16:08
Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	11	$1.2K	1,384	0	+1,384	open	—	07-25 16:20
NATO article 5 before 2027?	17	$1.2K	650	650	+0	open	—	09-09 23:46
Will the National Rally group hold fewer than 10 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?	14	$1.1K	1,164	179	+985	No	+$233	10-06 18:33
Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	5	$1.0K	520	520	+0	open	—	10-12 20:43
us forcibly removes khamenei from power by march 31	35	$1.0K	1,403	862	+541	No	-$157	03-01 04:06
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	10	$1.0K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	09-11 10:51
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	3	$985	1,500	0	+1,500	open	—	10-22 00:10
Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	4	$925	500	500	+0	open	—	10-25 16:53
Will Francois Hollande win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	29	$925	610	429	+181	No	+$106	09-01 22:05
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?	8	$914	1,071	0	+1,071	open	—	09-29 11:02
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$857	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$143	04-21 03:52
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	6	$840	828	420	+408	open	—	11-07 19:22
Will Ségolène Royal finish second in the first round of the French Socialist primary?	11	$812	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$188	10-09 17:49
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	2	$751	200	600	-400	open	—	10-08 18:48
National Rally forms a French Senate Group in 2026?	7	$745	714	346	+367	Yes	+$207	09-07 08:45
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	3	$736	400	400	+0	No	+$56	08-15 19:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 19:22:34	Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	408	70¢	$285	0xe1f9c7…
11-07 17:32:43	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	60¢	$12	0x896f91…
11-07 15:06:04	Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	57	70¢	$40	0x063ee4…
11-07 13:14:10	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	No	BUY	41	14¢	$6	0x8ddecb…
11-07 12:50:36	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	No	BUY	9	12¢	$1	0x3b04f5…
11-07 11:05:13	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	No	BUY	49	24¢	$12	0x680c68…
11-07 07:37:30	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	No	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0x6b8b4c…
11-07 01:47:37	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	No	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0xf78e5f…
11-07 01:23:43	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	No	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0x4ef375…
11-06 13:15:15	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$9	0xf44b14…
11-06 12:10:19	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	38	80¢	$31	0x53fb2a…
11-05 20:09:00	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	No	BUY	25	32¢	$8	0x9937a3…
11-05 14:43:36	Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	419	78¢	$328	0x668e1f…
11-04 23:44:40	Will France pass a national budget by December 31?	No	BUY	996	30¢	$299	0x5dac0e…
11-04 22:05:24	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xd12499…
11-04 17:59:49	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	No	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa1097e…
11-04 13:08:10	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	No	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0xd2ffba…
11-04 11:35:22	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x06382e…
11-04 11:34:07	Will an F1 race be held in Qatar in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0xf465f5…
11-03 17:23:28	Will Jason or Lucia die in GTA VI?	No	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x20be8d…
11-03 11:08:09	France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	Yes	BUY	500	6¢	$28	0x4a014b…
11-02 19:49:21	Will an F1 race be held in Qatar in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc9af1a…
11-02 18:02:31	Will an F1 race be held in Qatar in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x8b4dc8…
11-01 23:57:33	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x30a973…
11-01 22:54:58	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x8be56e…
11-01 21:28:12	Will an F1 race be held in Qatar in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x04c7eb…
11-01 16:59:19	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	70	50¢	$35	0x487200…
11-01 15:59:46	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xb6082d…
11-01 15:51:19	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x4ad798…
11-01 15:40:48	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	88	40¢	$35	0x5db97f…
10-31 20:04:25	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x04b1e0…
10-31 20:00:54	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x5d7b5e…
10-31 19:59:24	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xbfc18c…
10-31 19:55:06	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x87a900…
10-31 18:50:43	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x4088e6…
10-30 23:00:10	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x0eb963…
10-30 19:37:45	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	65¢	$26	0x2a4c38…
10-30 11:08:34	Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	166	80¢	$133	0x8a13e4…
10-30 06:44:43	Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xd6bac4…
10-29 20:33:07	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xa280e7…
10-29 17:48:02	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xae01b5…
10-29 15:20:43	Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xf623b8…
10-28 21:18:38	Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	23	80¢	$18	0xc3ec38…
10-28 09:22:58	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0xd8ccb7…
10-27 21:17:09	Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$4	0xb250be…
10-27 13:16:56	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x821bd2…
10-27 13:15:23	Will an F1 race be held in Qatar in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xc2494d…
10-27 13:15:08	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0x663c15…
10-27 06:00:00	France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	117	75¢	$88	0xaa9bf0…
10-26 17:33:02	Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	90	54¢	$49	0x3b2a04…
10-25 22:57:23	Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x5a541d…
10-25 21:09:20	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	500	59¢	$293	0x1f797e…
10-25 16:55:56	Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0x784af6…
10-25 16:54:38	Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0x615c16…
10-25 16:54:17	Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xf907de…
10-25 16:53:08	Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	500	95¢	$475	0x010a2d…
10-25 16:21:32	Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	44	70¢	$30	0x6de264…
10-25 16:08:53	Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	680	94¢	$642	0x6a07bb…
10-25 16:07:44	Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	51	95¢	$49	0x6b9d5b…
10-25 15:36:35	Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	169	97¢	$163	0xa995f4…
10-24 05:37:32	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xb52795…
10-24 01:25:05	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x55aafd…
10-23 20:52:06	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	60¢	$11	0xc82b2c…
10-23 20:52:06	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	56	55¢	$31	0x57088e…
10-23 20:51:15	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	56¢	$17	0xe9e8ad…
10-23 20:51:15	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x9299d1…
10-23 20:51:15	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x5d0ca4…
10-23 20:50:51	Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x64517c…
10-23 19:50:12	Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	85¢	$128	0x0aa37d…
10-23 19:50:05	Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xf41c24…
10-23 19:33:41	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x5bef34…
10-23 10:01:21	France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	Yes	BUY	2,500	11¢	$275	0xf6c52c…
10-23 09:53:38	Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0xc16d09…
10-23 09:53:30	Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	83	88¢	$73	0xd65b09…
10-22 18:45:24	Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	90	42¢	$38	0x71ee7e…
10-22 00:10:20	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	500	60¢	$300	0xb2736c…
10-22 00:10:20	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	No	BUY	500	67¢	$335	0x87671b…
10-21 14:01:42	Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	115	58¢	$67	0xbbd370…
10-21 10:27:00	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	50¢	$7	0x75fc2d…
10-21 04:05:24	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x6bae64…
10-21 03:52:59	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x0eb802…
10-20 23:15:50	Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	32	60¢	$19	0xe4bdf5…
10-20 22:44:59	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0xffc95e…
10-19 22:16:17	US x China Military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xbb4e73…
10-19 21:34:03	Will an F1 race be held in the United Arab Emirates in 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	67¢	$267	0x04599e…
10-19 19:52:32	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0xdf9e02…
10-19 16:35:39	Paris curfew by October 21?	No	BUY	291	69¢	$200	0x4ded3e…
10-19 16:34:54	Paris curfew by October 21?	Yes	SELL	1,000	35¢	$347	0x8f75f2…
10-19 16:33:54	Paris curfew by October 21?	No	BUY	832	60¢	$500	0x8c9a20…
10-19 16:04:26	Paris curfew by October 21?	No	SELL	900	50¢	$452	0xd3e0ff…
10-19 16:04:20	Paris curfew by October 21?	Yes	BUY	12	46¢	$6	0x98e1c6…
10-19 16:04:20	Paris curfew by October 21?	Yes	BUY	250	46¢	$115	0x65302a…
10-19 16:04:20	Paris curfew by October 21?	Yes	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0x545456…
10-19 13:46:35	Paris curfew by October 21?	Yes	BUY	738	68¢	$500	0x1b33cc…
10-19 13:45:12	2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?	Zemmour	BUY	73	60¢	$44	0xc89d4c…
10-19 11:38:14	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	250	85¢	$212	0x9cc3c8…
10-19 11:14:24	Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	151	82¢	$124	0xb6d715…
10-19 10:39:11	Paris curfew by October 21?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x406129…
10-19 10:37:11	Paris curfew by October 21?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x7ea95d…
10-19 10:37:09	Paris curfew by October 21?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x30c609…