Fickle-Feather — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$34

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.7%

Resolved

Trades

1,406

lifetime

Volume

$3.24K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 07-01 03:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Politics

46% — —

Other

40% 47% $-8

Sports

10% 20% $-26

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	80	$211	570	545	+25	open	—	05-30 10:32
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	22	$68	92	97	-5	open	—	06-11 20:11
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	22	$50	57	47	+9	open	—	04-19 19:50
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Mattia Bellucci	14	$47	60	60	+0	Mattia Bellucci	+$6	05-07 12:58
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	18	$45	52	52	+0	open	—	05-28 15:58
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	19	$43	62	62	+0	open	—	04-22 13:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	16	$41	52	52	+0	open	—	04-22 12:57
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	13	$36	55	60	-5	open	—	06-14 18:22
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	10	$34	24	24	+0	open	—	05-25 23:06
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	14	$34	65	65	+0	open	—	04-28 15:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	15	$34	40	40	+0	open	—	04-22 12:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	13	$33	78	81	-3	open	—	06-26 11:55
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?	7	$31	35	35	+0	Yes	+$4	05-06 05:30
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	11	$30	61	61	+0	open	—	04-18 12:13
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	10	$30	71	71	+0	open	—	04-15 21:27
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	8	$29	25	25	+0	open	—	04-17 17:47
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	11	$29	30	30	+0	open	—	04-12 13:31
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	19	$28	127	127	+0	open	—	05-27 16:02
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	8	$28	27	25	+2	open	—	06-22 10:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	12	$27	82	81	+1	open	—	05-26 03:33
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanxi Loongs	7	$26	35	0	+35	Shanxi Loongs	$-26	05-07 12:28
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	4	$26	20	20	+0	open	—	06-30 12:03
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	10	$25	36	36	+0	open	—	05-23 20:54
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	7	$24	50	50	+0	open	—	06-20 12:01
76ers vs. Celtics	3	$24	25	25	+0	open	—	04-29 01:17
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	9	$23	25	25	+0	open	—	04-23 04:03
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	10	$23	30	30	+0	open	—	04-18 12:13
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	6	$23	20	20	+0	open	—	04-23 04:02
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	3	$23	20	20	+0	open	—	05-25 01:55
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	5	$22	40	55	-15	open	—	06-30 12:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 03:11:34	Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0x3844d2…
06-30 12:37:31	Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	30¢	$5	0x90bcd7…
06-30 12:05:41	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x694e02…
06-30 12:05:40	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x178ab0…
06-30 12:05:37	Solana all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1488f8…
06-30 12:05:32	Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2d987e…
06-30 12:05:22	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf1e9a2…
06-30 12:05:10	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x6f3981…
06-30 12:05:04	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xa31c73…
06-30 12:05:02	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x9e064b…
06-30 12:05:01	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xaa0ca7…
06-30 12:04:59	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x65df47…
06-30 12:04:53	Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x7de7da…
06-30 12:04:52	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x6916c5…
06-30 12:04:49	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0xe18113…
06-30 12:04:44	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913	No	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x641404…
06-30 12:04:40	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x566cc0…
06-30 12:04:37	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x91ad12…
06-30 12:04:32	spacex vs tesla higher valuation on june 30	SpaceX	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x69ade1…
06-30 12:04:26	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$3	0x11e7e5…
06-30 12:04:23	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0xd5494a…
06-30 12:04:22	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x7fd7a2…
06-30 12:04:19	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0x88cbef…
06-30 12:04:17	nick fuentes arrested by june 30	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xcd746a…
06-30 12:04:13	Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x000e87…
06-30 12:04:07	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x036e81…
06-30 12:04:05	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0xd0e2e2…
06-30 12:03:53	another pandemic before gta vi	Yes	SELL	9	50¢	$5	0xc55269…
06-30 12:03:49	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0x7ccff3…
06-30 12:03:46	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x9020dc…
06-30 12:03:43	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0xbade0a…
06-30 12:03:35	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0xde35f3…
06-30 12:03:32	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x3ff15c…
06-30 12:03:19	will russia capture stavky by july 31	Yes	SELL	15	9¢	$1	0x3071bc…
06-30 12:03:17	Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Yes	SELL	15	21¢	$3	0x30e31a…
06-30 12:03:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x9777d6…
06-30 12:02:53	will the next uk election be called by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	15	12¢	$2	0xe30f6c…
06-30 12:02:44	Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	39	30¢	$12	0x0801ed…
06-29 17:59:16	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	SELL	7	42¢	$3	0x406858…
06-29 01:33:25	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0xcb219f…
06-29 01:33:25	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	12	62¢	$8	0x496e55…
06-28 19:03:23	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0xd84665…
06-28 18:34:29	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x2c493d…
06-28 17:23:46	iran successfully targets shipping on june 29 20260625225210240	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x31d512…
06-28 07:57:25	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xce9719…
06-28 01:50:49	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	79¢	$1	0x8dec69…
06-27 21:05:02	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xf94add…
06-27 14:01:32	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x1a332f…
06-27 13:19:16	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x45804d…
06-27 13:05:31	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x021a86…
06-27 12:51:14	gpt 5pt6 released by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x263cb0…
06-27 12:07:32	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0xe751b9…
06-27 11:54:04	will russia capture stavky by july 31	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xf395e1…
06-27 11:53:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x5dd563…
06-26 11:55:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	4	10¢	$0	0xae7725…
06-26 11:42:40	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x97fbb5…
06-26 11:42:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x3343ea…
06-26 08:05:34	Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x6a9280…
06-26 05:37:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x420eec…
06-26 04:58:07	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0x925ffa…
06-25 22:43:08	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xc06ba1…
06-25 22:29:23	Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x74a0d9…
06-25 22:15:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xf981fa…
06-25 22:15:10	Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xc8b773…
06-24 15:36:35	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x4e6937…
06-24 15:22:41	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x2dabd3…
06-23 16:17:19	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x920825…
06-23 16:03:34	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	30	5¢	$2	0x19350c…
06-23 09:39:52	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x2508c2…
06-23 07:33:49	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xd9e6f9…
06-23 00:00:59	will the next uk election be called by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf0688b…
06-22 16:57:32	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	Yes	SELL	15	21¢	$3	0x3e78cc…
06-22 15:57:04	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x36c699…
06-22 14:18:56	another critical cloudflare incident by june 30 2026 12	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xa93c35…
06-22 10:41:19	Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0x307de7…
06-22 10:41:17	Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xf44d6b…
06-22 10:28:08	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x820431…
06-22 00:24:41	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x3dfa9f…
06-21 20:50:41	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xb703b1…
06-21 19:59:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xee9d64…
06-21 18:27:50	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x019212…
06-21 17:49:13	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x68b909…
06-21 02:38:10	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x65b232…
06-20 14:06:26	will the next uk election be called by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xa7bc1d…
06-20 13:40:05	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xab7d12…
06-20 13:26:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x9b7dc9…
06-20 13:13:32	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x9c7758…
06-20 12:47:52	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x5253f8…
06-20 12:01:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	15	23¢	$3	0x859821…
06-20 11:41:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x0fe6eb…
06-20 11:17:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x0cd564…
06-20 11:00:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x8e969d…
06-20 10:14:52	starmer out by august 31 2026 593 871	No	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0xceb09b…
06-20 05:18:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0xcf6d0c…
06-20 02:47:07	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	51¢	$6	0x8fc775…
06-20 02:47:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	11	8¢	$1	0x8f462a…
06-20 02:47:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	25	36¢	$9	0xa4b41d…
06-19 22:05:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x292f52…
06-19 17:01:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xd05d3e…
06-19 16:30:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x0e522c…