Negligible-Curtain — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$38

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

46.4%

Resolved

565

Trades

2,402

lifetime

Volume

$5.46K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-14

last 09-17 06:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 96 days

Categories

Politics

51% 42% +$119

Other

37% 42% -$105

Sports

10% 33% -$66

Tech

1% 64% +$20

Crypto

1% 0% -$2

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+10	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	05-29 12:37
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+67	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	06-01 21:17
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+12	$0	1¢	$0	$0	06-25 22:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	74	$195	501	501	+0	No	-$8	05-30 10:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	18	$110	146	146	+0	No	+$82	05-24 15:27
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	35	$103	81	81	+0	Yes	-$2	06-09 01:23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	31	$100	98	98	+0	No	+$8	05-29 10:57
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	20	$94	135	135	+0	Yes	+$67	05-26 04:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	25	$78	145	145	+0	Yes	+$1	06-09 01:23
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	29	$77	161	161	+0	Yes	-$1	06-14 17:45
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	21	$65	51	51	+0	Yes	+$2	06-18 20:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	24	$61	102	102	+0	No	-$1	05-24 19:46
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Mattia Bellucci	16	$58	60	60	+0	Mattia Bellucci	+$12	05-07 14:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	29	$55	168	168	+0	Yes	-$5	06-13 05:59
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	16	$54	75	30	+45	No	-$5	06-03 12:05
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	18	$54	37	37	+0	No	+$3	05-25 21:53
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	17	$50	72	66	+7	No	+$7	05-25 22:59
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	19	$44	70	40	+30	No	-$7	06-03 21:35
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	19	$39	171	171	+0	No	-$2	06-25 21:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	15	$36	67	67	+0	No	-$1	04-21 12:06
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	17	$33	115	72	+43	No	-$1	06-25 07:40
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	13	$33	42	32	+11	No	-$2	06-11 13:27
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	11	$33	27	27	+0	Yes	$0	06-12 10:59
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	15	$32	80	43	+37	No	-$8	06-17 17:44
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	8	$32	20	20	+0	No	+$1	05-31 23:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	10	$31	21	21	+0	No	$0	05-23 18:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	12	$30	37	37	+0	No	+$3	04-22 12:57
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	9	$28	46	45	+1	Yes	-$2	06-04 02:21
starmer out by june 22 2026	7	$28	20	20	+0	Yes	+$2	06-21 12:30
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	13	$27	39	39	+0	Yes	-$3	05-28 15:56
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	20	$27	151	151	+0	No	-$5	05-29 11:10
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	8	$27	24	24	+0	open	—	06-29 01:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	11	$25	27	27	+0	No	-$2	06-30 12:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-17 06:37:04	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0xe02610…
09-17 06:25:39	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x2c3957…
09-17 06:25:37	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x3fc203…
09-17 06:25:13	Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	Yes	SELL	17	9¢	$1	0x144674…
09-17 06:25:12	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x7f36cb…
09-17 06:25:06	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	23	5¢	$1	0x52b713…
09-17 06:24:57	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	42	3¢	$1	0x8b110c…
07-01 03:17:02	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2a9b00…
07-01 03:16:56	will russia capture all of rodynske again by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x84e927…
06-30 12:45:07	Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xe9b21c…
06-30 12:45:02	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0xb67d31…
06-30 12:23:59	Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa7c706…
06-30 12:23:56	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x96d077…
06-30 12:23:53	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x14c8e3…
06-30 12:23:50	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2ba0b6…
06-30 12:23:49	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x13c62f…
06-30 12:23:46	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0f6ba0…
06-30 12:23:43	US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	No	SELL	2	84¢	$1	0xa56139…
06-30 12:23:41	Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	79¢	$1	0x911043…
06-30 12:23:38	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x7969b6…
06-30 12:23:32	Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0x6cf267…
06-30 12:23:31	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xd2217a…
06-30 12:23:29	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0xcb7995…
06-30 12:23:26	spacex vs tesla higher valuation on june 30	SpaceX	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x3e1d85…
06-30 12:23:25	will neymar score 3 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108555	No	SELL	4	94¢	$4	0x20ae6e…
06-30 12:23:22	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0x067840…
06-30 12:23:19	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$3	0x88bed6…
06-30 12:23:16	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xa79e14…
06-30 12:23:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x195a77…
06-30 12:23:13	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x1822d1…
06-30 12:23:11	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x1923b9…
06-30 12:23:08	Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	No	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0x511423…
06-30 12:23:05	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x916682…
06-30 12:23:01	Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	No	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xfccd21…
06-30 12:22:59	confirmed us screwworm case beyond texas by august 30 20260609151517551	No	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x9ef593…
06-30 12:22:58	Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0xfde1cb…
06-30 12:22:55	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0xfb9643…
06-30 12:22:53	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xc172de…
06-30 12:22:52	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xaa6a6d…
06-30 12:22:49	will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x1b2eeb…
06-30 12:22:47	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x21d034…
06-30 12:22:44	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x54c683…
06-30 12:22:43	Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0x552ec3…
06-30 12:22:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xef3bad…
06-30 12:22:38	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x0350a6…
06-30 12:22:35	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xb9afc6…
06-30 12:22:02	nick fuentes arrested by june 30	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x5abe1a…
06-30 12:21:58	Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0x44ba00…
06-30 12:21:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe943dd…
06-30 12:21:53	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x961b99…
06-30 12:21:50	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$6	0xb90357…
06-30 12:21:47	Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0x06e67b…
06-30 12:21:46	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	7	57¢	$4	0xde980f…
06-30 12:21:38	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0xa664ce…
06-30 12:21:35	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	Yes	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0xa5770c…
06-30 12:21:32	Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	7	81¢	$6	0x9c5e76…
06-30 12:21:31	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0x9b1151…
06-30 12:21:29	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x60cfb7…
06-30 12:21:26	pedro castillo pardoned in 2026	No	SELL	8	85¢	$6	0x258c1b…
06-30 12:21:23	Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?	No	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0x265457…
06-30 12:21:23	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0x1f0c81…
06-30 12:21:20	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	9	74¢	$7	0xd19194…
06-30 12:21:17	another pandemic before gta vi	Yes	SELL	9	50¢	$5	0x17bad1…
06-30 12:21:16	Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	67¢	$6	0x8e8fd6…
06-30 12:21:13	will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x58289a…
06-30 12:21:08	Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?	No	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x26c44e…
06-30 12:21:07	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x1ef72d…
06-30 12:21:02	us agrees to give ukraine security guarantee by december 31	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x097e0d…
06-30 12:21:01	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x73cc03…
06-30 12:20:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0xda05a5…
06-30 12:20:53	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	10	56¢	$6	0x4825f1…
06-30 12:20:50	Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0xdd37b2…
06-30 12:20:46	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	SELL	12	19¢	$2	0x0f3bec…
06-30 12:20:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	12	56¢	$7	0xbe91f1…
06-30 12:20:43	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	12	54¢	$7	0x808357…
06-30 12:20:40	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	23¢	$3	0x57ec41…
06-30 12:20:37	Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?	Yes	SELL	13	42¢	$5	0x2b6941…
06-30 12:20:32	will trump speak to elon musk in june	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xcb7abb…
06-30 12:20:28	Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	SELL	18	30¢	$5	0x9aa36a…
06-30 12:20:26	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$8	0xd81f32…
06-30 12:20:22	Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xfed1ac…
06-30 12:20:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x37f317…
06-30 12:20:16	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xb45040…
06-30 12:20:14	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x8df14a…
06-30 12:20:11	Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	No	SELL	22	22¢	$5	0xd2ac93…
06-30 12:20:08	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	23	14¢	$3	0x3c7bee…
06-30 12:20:07	will the next uk election be called by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	15	10¢	$2	0x6e2803…
06-30 12:19:58	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	35	12¢	$4	0xd15afc…
06-30 12:19:56	Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	5¢	$2	0x05e6e8…
06-30 12:19:53	Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	7¢	$3	0x1e7c51…
06-30 12:19:50	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	No	SELL	41	4¢	$2	0xe983ba…
06-30 12:19:43	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	52	9¢	$5	0xe5d448…
06-29 18:05:22	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	SELL	1	38¢	$0	0xf6c7b7…
06-29 18:05:11	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	SELL	7	38¢	$3	0x8db8ed…
06-29 15:52:02	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x07164c…
06-29 13:03:49	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x9abe2f…
06-29 01:34:19	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	12	62¢	$8	0xad8ce5…
06-29 01:34:17	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xd08bfb…
06-29 01:34:16	Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	8¢	$4	0x882347…
06-28 22:40:20	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xd50c2b…