Linear-Leaver — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$26

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.7%

Resolved

Trades

337

lifetime

Volume

$8.17K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-10 09:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

48% — —

Politics

41% 60% $-28

Crypto

7% 100% +$1

Tech

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

53 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
nato x russia military clash by march 31 2026	3	$331	171	171	+0	open	—	03-29 21:03
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	2	$207	110	110	+0	open	—	03-14 22:04
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by March 31, 2026?	2	$202	103	103	+0	open	—	02-19 19:22
us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31	2	$147	74	74	+0	open	—	01-29 21:47
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	4	$144	167	167	+0	open	—	01-13 17:13
US strike on Cuba by January 31?	3	$131	134	0	+134	open	—	01-16 12:05
another us strike on venezuela by january 10	2	$122	63	63	+0	open	—	01-08 21:19
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?	1	$102	0	105	-105	open	—	07-29 21:45
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	3	$68	339	308	+31	open	—	07-08 06:46
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$65	35	35	+0	open	—	04-03 10:52
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	2	$64	34	34	+0	open	—	06-08 06:47
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	07-15 09:42
will wti reach 130 in june 2026 362	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	06-18 07:28
will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	07-27 07:11
will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	2	$61	32	32	+0	open	—	07-24 07:48
will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	2	$61	31	31	+0	open	—	07-23 07:55
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 7 2026	2	$61	31	31	+0	open	—	06-06 08:27
will wti reach 150 in june 2026 555	2	$61	31	31	+0	open	—	06-23 06:45
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	2	$60	31	31	+0	open	—	06-05 18:35
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	1	$53	0	55	-55	open	—	07-29 21:58
Megaquake by June 30?	3	$53	239	218	+21	open	—	06-08 22:08
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	1	$51	59	0	+59	open	—	03-30 06:22
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	2	$51	35	35	+0	open	—	06-19 08:36
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	2	$48	35	35	+0	open	—	07-26 21:45
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$46	36	36	+0	open	—	04-07 21:01
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	2	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	05-22 08:53
israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	3	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	07-27 07:44
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	2	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	07-24 07:47
will ethereum dip to 1000 in june 2026	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	06-18 07:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	05-15 07:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 09:55:43	will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xcc522d…
08-10 09:55:06	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	No	BUY	17	87¢	$15	0x7eb72d…
08-10 09:43:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x654e76…
08-10 07:57:37	will germany send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742055	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x7c2c6f…
08-10 07:57:18	gemini 4pt0 released by august 31 2026	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xa04b74…
08-09 14:46:18	uptspt x russia nuclear deal by september 30 20260728192655450	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xafa2b0…
08-09 14:31:40	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x3e7baa…
08-09 14:31:10	will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x6ff521…
08-03 21:52:15	nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x0bd55d…
08-03 21:39:00	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	43	93¢	$40	0xf55a6b…
08-03 21:38:00	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0x90b0b6…
08-03 21:36:30	israel agrees to board of peace gaza plan by august 7 20260731224133050	No	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0x90b275…
08-02 05:37:33	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x81a23d…
07-31 19:33:39	will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	No	SELL	22	83¢	$19	0xf1c9bd…
07-29 22:03:53	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xefde7d…
07-29 22:01:51	US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xbd039b…
07-29 22:01:26	Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xd9b7aa…
07-29 22:00:57	israel military action against greater beirut by july 31 20260708204650550	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x487f01…
07-29 21:58:51	Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	55	97¢	$53	0x8595e6…
07-29 21:57:23	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	31	95¢	$30	0x9091dd…
07-29 21:45:08	Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?	No	SELL	105	97¢	$102	0xf22d1f…
07-27 07:44:48	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	No	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x3fb519…
07-27 07:44:21	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xcb2cae…
07-27 07:14:34	Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xd1dd0f…
07-27 07:14:19	will congress override any veto in 2026 20260624150337322	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xf48566…
07-27 07:14:01	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x1bed2b…
07-27 07:13:19	KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x87d3a4…
07-27 07:13:04	will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x449236…
07-27 07:12:49	farsi island no longer under iranian control by august 31 20260720015111490	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xe47ea1…
07-27 07:12:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x39d194…
07-27 07:11:54	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xcfca0f…
07-27 07:11:40	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x7b3e18…
07-26 21:45:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	35	52¢	$18	0x56c289…
07-24 07:50:12	hengam island no longer under iranian control by july 31 20260720013456856	No	BUY	19	97¢	$18	0xb20c54…
07-24 07:49:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x9b393d…
07-24 07:48:54	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	SELL	32	99¢	$31	0x82f040…
07-24 07:47:28	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x905617…
07-23 07:55:34	total internet blackout in iran by july 31 2026 20260720155238427	No	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0xa9df5d…
07-23 07:55:07	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x256b07…
07-22 23:32:58	will benjamin netanyahu be arrested by september 30 20260720194516250	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x8e8878…
07-22 23:32:28	andrew tate extradited to uk by sep 30 20260719022813213	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0xb4c34e…
07-22 23:31:54	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xe98242…
07-20 20:17:39	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by september 30	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0xccf344…
07-20 20:17:12	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	No	SELL	22	63¢	$14	0x5fb7cd…
07-20 20:17:06	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	SELL	23	60¢	$14	0xb22bd6…
07-16 07:37:25	pedro castillo pardoned in 2026	No	SELL	12	64¢	$7	0x2bb8e3…
07-16 07:37:05	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0x877766…
07-16 07:36:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x4e28d1…
07-15 09:43:19	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xb993e2…
07-15 09:42:04	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x515e6e…
07-15 09:41:49	will the next claude opus model be released by july 17 2026	No	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0xcafdbc…
07-14 09:14:52	will trump accuse mexico of election interference by july 16 20260714013930800	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0xa0dfec…
07-12 11:30:31	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by september 30 20260709004922353	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x2953de…
07-12 11:30:10	will gpt 6 be released by august 7 2026	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x01e5f4…
07-12 11:29:38	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x8d0d16…
07-12 11:27:26	will xagusd reach 68 in july 2026	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xc56961…
07-12 11:26:29	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x987d82…
07-12 11:25:46	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xc13ec5…
07-11 23:03:04	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	23	61¢	$14	0xe54a64…
07-11 09:54:07	Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x912029…
07-11 09:53:47	will andurils valuation hit high 200b by december 31	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xd26411…
07-11 09:53:28	congress approves iran deal in 2026 20260616005217959	No	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0xbb08e5…
07-11 09:53:08	will neuralinks valuation hit high 100b by december 31	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0xfd978a…
07-11 09:52:41	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x36e89b…
07-11 09:52:02	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x1e860e…
07-11 09:31:37	megaquake by july 31 20260617190926646	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x0ac41a…
07-10 07:37:31	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x99b421…
07-09 10:11:37	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x264620…
07-09 10:11:14	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	37	81¢	$30	0x8c12c7…
07-09 10:10:41	israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260706181027671	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x58c244…
07-09 10:10:14	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x3ee9a6…
07-08 06:46:10	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x02cf09…
07-08 06:45:52	will anthropics valuation hit high 4pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x72ddaf…
07-08 06:45:04	Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	96¢	$40	0xc3d59c…
07-08 06:42:16	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x51ca13…
07-08 06:41:55	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x2cf161…
07-08 06:41:29	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	No	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0xa79701…
07-08 06:41:07	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x8529b5…
07-08 06:38:50	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x10e96f…
07-07 09:27:49	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xf84c75…
07-07 09:27:34	will qatar recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x209aa2…
07-07 09:27:14	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x983527…
07-07 09:00:53	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0xab4ae8…
07-07 08:02:26	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	No	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0x0e2514…
07-06 08:59:22	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x862982…
07-06 07:33:43	New pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x06f751…
07-06 07:33:20	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0xa7a086…
07-06 07:32:58	ukraine coup attempt by december 31	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x057531…
07-06 07:32:38	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0x7e5db6…
07-05 23:05:19	israel closes its airspace by august 31	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x3cc201…
07-05 23:04:43	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x88eaaf…
07-05 11:41:41	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x76032b…
07-05 11:41:16	iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0xc8386d…
07-04 07:46:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0xd7bd48…
07-03 07:10:14	Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xdfc247…
07-03 07:09:50	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x1cd760…
07-03 07:09:23	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0x627ceb…
07-03 07:08:50	michael saylor federally charged by december 31 2026 20260625210239195	No	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0x3329f7…
07-03 06:43:52	us x cuba economic deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0xaf7b0a…
06-26 09:45:22	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0xb1227d…