Realized P&L (7d)
-$1
Unrealized P&L
+$12
Hit rate
1.7%
Resolved (7d)
3
Trades (7d)
82
70,069 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$86
$58.6K lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$36
29 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-01 22:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 157 days
Categories
Other
53% 43% +$750
Politics
20% 41% -$224
Sports
15% 42% +$190
Tech
7% 38% +$311
Crypto
4% 67% +$84
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$2
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
75 active days in 12wk • peak 178 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +17 $4 80¢ $13 +$10 08-13 04:45
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +78 $2 6¢ $5 +$2 11-01 16:00
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes +3 $3 100¢ $3 +$1 05-24 20:17
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? Yes +57 $3 5¢ $3 $0 11-01 09:52
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No +33 $10 8¢ $2 -$8 08-11 08:47
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +2 $1 99¢ $2 +$1 08-26 16:20
Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes -119 -$1 2¢ $-2 -$1 05-04 07:13
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes +31 -$1 4¢ $1 +$2 10-31 15:28
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? Yes +17 -$6 6¢ $1 +$7 09-17 07:10
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -4 -$4 18¢ $-1 +$3 09-29 01:31
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes +12 $0 4¢ $0 +$0 11-01 11:53
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +4 $2 12¢ $0 -$1 08-10 10:00
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes -8 $0 5¢ $-0 -$1 06-30 08:20
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? Yes +6 $1 5¢ $0 -$1 10-04 10:14
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes -4 $0 7¢ $-0 $0 08-30 19:18
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes -1 $0 20¢ $-0 $0 09-04 20:02
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes +0 $0 94¢ $0 +$0 08-19 01:01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +0 -$1 65¢ $0 +$1 08-20 14:12
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Yes +4 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 05-20 00:20
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +1 $0 4¢ $0 $0 05-24 05:13
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -0 -$2 16¢ $-0 +$2 09-05 21:47
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes -1 $0 5¢ $-0 $0 05-25 17:06
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +5 $0 0¢ $0 $0 11-01 21:56
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes -5 -$1 0¢ $-0 +$0 08-22 22:36
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $0 12¢ $0 $0 05-04 01:02
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +4 $2 0¢ $0 -$2 11-02 00:26
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? Yes +0 $0 2¢ $0 $0 05-14 21:24
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +0 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 09-24 23:27
New pandemic in 2026? Yes +0 $0 2¢ $0 $0 10-31 17:08