Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$296
Trades
43
Unique wallets
24
Liquidity
$2,025
Latest YES mid
14¢
Latest NO mid
86¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-30
last 07-04 22:05
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | $16 | $33 | $17 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 8 | $9 | $6 | +$3 |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | $12 | $117 | $105 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 7 | $8 | — | +$8 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $16 | $13 | +$3 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $11 | $26 | $15 |
| Median | 1 | $1 | $6 | $5 |
| Below median | 3 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | — | $103 | $103 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| unranked | 7 | $13 | $8 | +$5 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | +141 | $103 | $103 | 2 | 06-18 18:51 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +70 | $16 | $16 | 2 | 06-17 19:24 |
| Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | Yes | +30 | $7 | $7 | 2 | 06-19 11:44 |
| Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | +30 | $26 | $26 | 3 | 07-04 17:16 |
| Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | +25 | $4 | $4 | 6 | 06-22 22:11 |
| Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | +22 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-24 13:54 |
| Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | +11 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-17 19:24 |
| Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-22 22:11 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +9 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 05-31 01:37 |
| Rotating-Fault 0x405b…755c | No | +7 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-19 11:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | +7 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-25 22:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | +7 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 06-24 13:54 |
| Unruly-Real 0xdeb3…60cc | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-18 18:51 |
| Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | +3 | $1 | $5 | 2 | 06-17 14:42 |
| Willing-Eaves 0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | +2 | $1 | $4 | 2 | 06-24 13:54 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 22:05:52 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x5f5834… |
| 07-04 22:05:52 | (anonymous) 0xbecc…f560 | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0x5f5834… |
| 07-04 17:16:52 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | BUY | 4 | 86¢ | $3 | 0x2821da… |
| 07-04 17:16:52 | Double-Podcast 0x92a3…4a7d | No | SELL | 5 | 86¢ | $4 | 0x2821da… |
| 07-04 17:16:52 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 14¢ | $0 | 0x2821da… |
| 06-30 17:10:37 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0xb92117… |
| 06-30 17:10:37 | (anonymous) 0xbd84…1292 | No | SELL | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0xb92117… |
| 06-25 22:13:16 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | BUY | 7 | 86¢ | $6 | 0x9473c5… |
| 06-25 22:13:16 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x9473c5… |
| 06-24 13:54:08 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x9c1de8… |
| 06-24 13:54:08 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | BUY | 2 | 86¢ | $2 | 0x9c1de8… |
| 06-24 13:54:08 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | BUY | 8 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x9c1de8… |
| 06-24 13:54:01 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | BUY | 14 | 13¢ | $2 | 0x9bb536… |
| 06-24 13:54:01 | Willing-Eaves 0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x9bb536… |
| 06-24 13:54:01 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | BUY | 4 | 86¢ | $4 | 0x9bb536… |
| 06-22 22:11:56 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | BUY | 10 | 82¢ | $8 | 0x942930… |
| 06-22 22:11:56 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x942930… |
| 06-22 18:53:26 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 18¢ | $1 | 0xb7b94c… |
| 06-22 18:53:26 | Swift-Divan 0x998a…d949 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 18¢ | $3 | 0xb7b94c… |
| 06-19 11:44:28 | Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 22¢ | $2 | 0x3feb25… |
| 06-19 11:44:28 | Rotating-Fault 0x405b…755c | No | BUY | 7 | 78¢ | $6 | 0x3feb25… |
| 06-18 18:51:37 | Black-And-White-Insert 0x7fa5…7621 | Yes | BUY | 23 | 22¢ | $5 | 0x435eb8… |
| 06-18 18:51:37 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | BUY | 39 | 77¢ | $30 | 0x435eb8… |
| 06-18 18:51:37 | Willing-Eaves 0x38a4…4ef2 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 23¢ | $3 | 0x435eb8… |
| 06-18 18:51:37 | Unruly-Real 0xdeb3…60cc | Yes | BUY | 5 | 24¢ | $1 | 0x435eb8… |
| 06-17 19:24:28 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | BUY | 102 | 72¢ | $73 | 0xcef185… |
| 06-17 19:24:28 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | SELL | 44 | 72¢ | $32 | 0xcef185… |
| 06-17 19:24:28 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | BUY | 11 | 29¢ | $3 | 0xcef185… |
| 06-17 19:24:28 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 47 | 28¢ | $13 | 0xcef185… |
| 06-17 14:42:46 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 34¢ | $2 | 0xf6f35e… |
| 06-17 14:42:46 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 34¢ | $2 | 0xf6f35e… |
| 06-17 14:37:26 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 32¢ | $3 | 0x5a5b76… |
| 06-17 14:37:26 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | Yes | SELL | 9 | 32¢ | $3 | 0x5a5b76… |
| 05-31 01:37:39 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | Yes | BUY | 9 | 23¢ | $2 | 0x894319… |
| 05-31 01:37:39 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 9 | 77¢ | $7 | 0x894319… |
| 05-30 23:41:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 23 | 13¢ | $3 | 0xade59f… |
| 05-30 23:41:20 | Energetic-Influx 0xd66d…af66 | Yes | SELL | 23 | 13¢ | $3 | 0xade59f… |
| 05-30 23:40:41 | Energetic-Influx 0xd66d…af66 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xefcb14… |
| 05-30 23:40:41 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | SELL | 7 | 88¢ | $6 | 0xefcb14… |
| 05-30 23:40:41 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 7 | 81¢ | $6 | 0xefcb14… |
| 05-30 23:40:34 | Energetic-Influx 0xd66d…af66 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 21¢ | $3 | 0xe4a9cb… |
| 05-30 23:40:34 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 7 | 79¢ | $6 | 0xe4a9cb… |
| 05-30 23:40:34 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 5 | 79¢ | $4 | 0xe4a9cb… |