Realized P&L (30d)
+$19
Unrealized P&L
+$7
Hit rate
40.7%
Resolved (30d)
9
Trades (30d)
275
70,231 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$226
$58.7K lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$41
28 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-05 06:27
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 159 days
Categories
Other
53% 43% +$757
Politics
20% 41% -$224
Sports
15% 42% +$189
Tech
7% 38% +$311
Crypto
4% 67% +$84
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$2
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
75 active days in 12wk • peak 178 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +17 $4 81¢ $14 +$10 08-13 04:45
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes +117 $3 3¢ $4 +$1 11-03 14:02
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes +3 $3 100¢ $3 +$1 05-24 20:17
Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes -119 -$1 3¢ $-3 -$3 05-04 07:13
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No +33 $10 10¢ $3 -$7 08-11 08:47
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? Yes +57 $3 5¢ $3 -$1 11-04 08:13
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +54 $1 5¢ $3 +$2 11-05 03:32
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +2 $1 100¢ $2 +$1 08-26 16:20
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Yes +72 $2 3¢ $2 $0 11-05 03:32
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? Yes +52 $2 4¢ $2 -$1 11-04 05:19
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +4 -$2 20¢ $1 +$3 11-03 05:41
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -4 -$5 17¢ $-1 +$4 11-04 04:50
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes -8 $0 4¢ $-0 -$1 06-30 08:20
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes -4 $0 6¢ $-0 $0 08-30 19:18
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +4 $2 6¢ $0 -$2 08-10 10:00
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? Yes -2 -$1 11¢ $-0 +$0 05-27 17:53
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes -1 $0 15¢ $-0 $0 09-04 20:02
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +0 -$1 72¢ $0 +$1 08-20 14:12
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Yes +4 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 05-20 00:20
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes -1 $0 4¢ $-0 $0 05-25 17:06
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +1 $0 2¢ $0 $0 05-24 05:13
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $0 9¢ $0 $0 05-04 01:02
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes -5 -$1 0¢ $-0 +$0 08-22 22:36
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? Yes +0 $0 2¢ $0 $0 05-14 21:24
New pandemic in 2026? Yes +0 $0 2¢ $0 $0 10-31 17:08
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +1 -$2 0¢ $0 +$2 11-03 23:16
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +0 $1 1¢ $0 -$1 09-24 23:27
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +0 $2 0¢ $0 -$2 11-04 13:59