Incompatible-Edition — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.65K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.22K

Hit rate

87.3%

Resolved

317

Trades

1,691

lifetime

Volume

$234.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$139

Open exposure

$26.2K

27 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-31 10:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 94 days

Categories

Other

47% 79% -$4,847

Crypto

35% 95% +$3,981

Politics

14% 78% -$2,258

Tech

4% 100% +$420

Sports

0% 100% +$54

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 48 trades/day

Open positions (27) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+5,332	$4,514	94¢	$5.0K	+$525	09-25 14:01
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+2,308	$2,118	94¢	$2.2K	+$64	10-01 09:00
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	-3,011	-$1,411	72¢	$-2153	-$742	09-25 12:11
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,697	$1,516	96¢	$1.6K	+$113	09-26 04:08
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,610	$1,174	88¢	$1.4K	+$248	10-08 19:46
will ethereum dip to 1250 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	+1,412	$613	94¢	$1.3K	+$707	06-30 21:20
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,232	$1,128	90¢	$1.1K	-$13	10-02 22:51
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,094	$995	97¢	$1.1K	+$62	10-13 11:27
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+982	$723	96¢	$944	+$221	06-18 16:12
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+956	$895	92¢	$875	-$20	09-28 04:15
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+932	$852	94¢	$871	+$20	09-30 04:46
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+768	$726	97¢	$745	+$19	09-26 04:11
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+752	$703	96¢	$718	+$15	10-05 17:35
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+788	$706	83¢	$654	-$52	09-26 00:36
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	No	+672	$561	97¢	$652	+$91	06-27 00:30
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	No	+649	$587	99¢	$644	+$57	10-25 11:40
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	+688	$570	92¢	$630	+$59	10-25 15:14
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+566	$487	94¢	$535	+$48	08-31 19:34
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	+566	$515	90¢	$512	-$3	09-28 07:15
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+396	$352	94¢	$374	+$22	09-17 06:46
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	+396	$360	92¢	$364	+$4	10-19 13:28
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	+355	$326	97¢	$344	+$18	09-27 03:54
another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	+454	$493	72¢	$329	-$164	10-25 11:43
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No	+366	$296	86¢	$313	+$16	09-18 14:37
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-300	-$271	96¢	$-286	-$16	10-25 12:16
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+355	$337	70¢	$250	-$87	09-17 07:07
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	+255	$204	84¢	$213	+$9	10-14 12:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?	5	$6.9K	7,142	0	+7,142	No	+$199	06-15 05:04
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	12	$6.3K	6,336	286	+6,050	Yes	+$299	01-27 20:55
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	11	$5.1K	5,274	0	+5,274	No	+$198	04-06 08:51
US recession by end of 2026?	21	$4.5K	5,332	0	+5,332	open	—	09-25 14:01
Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?	1	$4.0K	3,999	0	+3,999	Yes	+$22	08-26 12:16
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?	3	$3.9K	3,986	0	+3,986	No	+$64	06-15 02:51
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$3.4K	2,060	2,060	+0	No	+$144	03-24 12:32
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?	12	$2.8K	3,073	586	+2,487	No	+$799	07-01 02:26
will bitcoin dip to 45k in february 2026 429 933 793	14	$2.7K	2,626	268	+2,358	No	+$163	02-19 19:54
negative gdp growth in 2025	41	$2.7K	0	2,673	-2,673	No	-$5	02-19 01:17
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	12	$2.5K	1,147	4,158	-3,011	open	—	09-25 12:11
will ethereum dip to 1200 in june 2026	3	$2.5K	1,868	686	+1,182	No	+$41	06-28 02:06
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	8	$2.4K	1,886	1,672	+214	Yes	-$1,167	04-08 15:07
will solana reach 120 in february 2026	14	$2.4K	2,536	0	+2,536	No	+$111	02-23 07:22
fed rate cut by january 2026 meeting 412	9	$2.4K	2,518	0	+2,518	No	+$110	01-12 01:08
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	9	$2.4K	2,211	286	+1,925	No	+$118	01-24 15:22
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	13	$2.4K	1,720	998	+722	Yes	-$113	07-28 13:12
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	35	$2.3K	1,640	952	+688	open	—	10-25 15:14
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	16	$2.3K	1,566	787	+779	No	+$100	04-04 01:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	7	$2.1K	1,644	1,482	+162	No	-$178	04-08 14:58
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	4	$2.1K	2,308	0	+2,308	open	—	10-01 09:00
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June?	6	$2.1K	1,707	586	+1,121	No	+$167	06-29 17:15
will us gdp growth in q4 2025 be less than 1pt0	10	$2.0K	1,882	218	+1,664	No	+$58	02-03 03:41
will ethereum dip to 1300 in june 2026	13	$1.9K	1,238	761	+477	No	+$75	06-29 16:04
Canada recession before 2027?	115	$1.9K	3,454	0	+3,454	Yes	-$1,905	05-29 13:39
will bitcoin reach 100k in february 2026	18	$1.9K	1,024	904	+120	No	+$35	02-20 22:24
will bitcoin hit 150k by march 31 2026	2	$1.8K	0	1,854	-1,854	No	-$20	02-19 08:47
will ethereum reach 2800 in february 2026	7	$1.7K	1,768	0	+1,768	No	+$89	02-18 15:11
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	4	$1.5K	1,697	0	+1,697	open	—	09-26 04:08
will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt45t by june 30	7	$1.5K	1,578	0	+1,578	No	+$64	06-27 15:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 10:57:43	KOSPI all-time high before 2028?	No	BUY	25	72¢	$18	0x410c52…
10-25 15:14:32	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	336	88¢	$296	0x925766…
10-25 14:43:21	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	88¢	$27	0x572535…
10-25 12:16:23	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	222	94¢	$209	0x5881fb…
10-25 11:55:23	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 75,000 and 80,000?	No	BUY	368	79¢	$290	0xecd4eb…
10-25 11:43:45	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	528	77¢	$407	0x543c31…
10-25 11:42:05	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	46	94¢	$43	0x965af5…
10-25 11:40:36	Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	No	BUY	383	96¢	$366	0x805155…
10-22 23:53:47	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?	No	BUY	362	92¢	$333	0xc6a06c…
10-22 23:53:45	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x847c40…
10-21 17:09:24	Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	205	97¢	$198	0xf59e66…
10-21 17:09:24	Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	344	97¢	$332	0xf32132…
10-21 17:09:24	Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	97¢	$17	0x640ae2…
10-21 04:45:15	Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	52	98¢	$50	0x37682f…
10-19 15:51:48	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	44	69¢	$30	0xf05206…
10-19 13:28:12	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	BUY	64	91¢	$58	0xa18c49…
10-18 16:04:14	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	33	69¢	$23	0x7d13fc…
10-18 04:24:42	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?	No	BUY	266	97¢	$258	0x8236e8…
10-18 04:23:06	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	500	69¢	$345	0x89c899…
10-17 14:06:36	Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	83	98¢	$81	0xe29588…
10-17 02:46:38	Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0x983425…
10-17 02:45:50	Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xfa0864…
10-17 02:45:47	Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0x6ab8ec…
10-17 02:45:47	Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x471a67…
10-14 12:57:21	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	255	80¢	$204	0x943533…
10-13 11:27:01	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	568	90¢	$511	0x8dcbaa…
10-13 05:39:36	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xfdb467…
10-09 19:59:10	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	70	90¢	$63	0xc0b2d3…
10-09 07:36:45	Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	97¢	$64	0xb623fd…
10-09 02:14:48	Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x382109…
10-08 19:46:47	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$1	0x745d5d…
10-08 19:30:09	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38	92¢	$34	0xfa3342…
10-08 19:10:09	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	92¢	$276	0x6ee901…
10-08 16:54:30	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0x6159a2…
10-08 16:48:39	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	37	92¢	$34	0x28cc93…
10-08 16:30:06	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	125	92¢	$115	0xa9862e…
10-08 16:12:09	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	242	92¢	$223	0x035c02…
10-08 10:41:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	BUY	68	90¢	$61	0x070dad…
10-07 09:02:24	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	BUY	4	91¢	$3	0xedbe0e…
10-06 18:09:06	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?	No	BUY	377	92¢	$347	0xe88c3f…
10-05 18:52:10	Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	97¢	$43	0x311845…
10-05 17:35:31	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	397	93¢	$369	0xd381dc…
10-05 15:57:08	will wti reach 110 in october 2026	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x6f3090…
10-05 15:21:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	No	BUY	586	98¢	$573	0xb51071…
10-02 22:51:09	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	460	91¢	$419	0x1b23f1…
10-02 20:44:24	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	91¢	$21	0xfbef9c…
10-02 16:29:03	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x376923…
10-02 01:32:57	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	526	92¢	$484	0x2c3b94…
10-01 13:36:38	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	BUY	122	91¢	$111	0xf59c7e…
10-01 13:35:38	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	BUY	156	91¢	$142	0xea6bcc…
10-01 09:00:41	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	568	92¢	$523	0x1d758a…
10-01 04:32:12	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	866	75¢	$649	0x5af7dd…
10-01 03:51:08	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0x665511…
10-01 02:27:20	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	91¢	$23	0xabae5a…
09-30 20:08:50	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	BUY	51	91¢	$46	0xdb16d1…
09-30 12:57:20	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 75,000 and 80,000?	No	BUY	46	92¢	$42	0xcc833d…
09-30 12:57:18	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 75,000 and 80,000?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x674d6b…
09-30 12:57:15	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 75,000 and 80,000?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xfed761…
09-30 12:57:11	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 75,000 and 80,000?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xeb604a…
09-30 12:57:08	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 75,000 and 80,000?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xb9a2ff…
09-30 12:57:06	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 75,000 and 80,000?	No	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0x0d6021…
09-30 04:46:41	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	91¢	$151	0x60f41d…
09-30 04:46:41	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	91¢	$273	0x28d01f…
09-30 02:09:18	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x19c262…
09-29 22:28:00	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xf6bba2…
09-28 21:37:50	Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	545	95¢	$519	0x56a5dc…
09-28 07:15:12	Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	566	91¢	$515	0xa45696…
09-28 04:15:29	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	93¢	$48	0x6a0e6e…
09-27 20:51:53	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x4ea865…
09-27 03:54:30	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	193	92¢	$177	0xe3f26c…
09-26 20:45:32	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	93¢	$116	0xa82b17…
09-26 20:45:17	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0xe606e4…
09-26 06:10:15	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	566	92¢	$521	0xca2c84…
09-26 04:11:42	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	573	95¢	$542	0x502ec6…
09-26 04:08:45	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	566	89¢	$504	0xc6afbe…
09-26 00:36:15	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	355	89¢	$316	0x494209…
09-25 15:38:32	Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	95¢	$0	0x339d61…
09-25 15:28:26	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xfc9496…
09-25 15:10:17	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	136	100¢	$135	0x7a7884…
09-25 14:17:41	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	162	92¢	$148	0x725a6e…
09-25 14:16:45	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	433	90¢	$390	0x0b8b7b…
09-25 14:15:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	BUY	188	99¢	$185	0x473d76…
09-25 14:12:05	Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in September?	No	BUY	277	97¢	$268	0x8cd5f6…
09-25 14:11:41	Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x42eb2c…
09-25 14:01:32	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	512	90¢	$461	0xb7447a…
09-25 14:01:32	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	396	90¢	$356	0x824b0c…
09-25 14:01:32	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	63	90¢	$57	0x6ee9e3…
09-25 13:51:05	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	567	94¢	$533	0x8fdefa…
09-25 13:50:47	Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	566	94¢	$532	0x96f571…
09-25 13:50:35	Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	366	96¢	$351	0x7c209f…
09-25 13:50:33	Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x29adf3…
09-25 13:49:50	Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	95¢	$9	0x9b755b…
09-25 13:49:45	Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	260	95¢	$248	0x7b67c5…
09-25 13:49:45	Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	119	95¢	$113	0x3ec9fb…
09-25 13:49:32	Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	349	95¢	$332	0x93406b…
09-25 13:49:32	Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0x44174b…
09-25 13:48:45	Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	366	97¢	$355	0x4316dd…
09-25 13:46:32	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	285	93¢	$264	0x1090b9…
09-25 13:46:26	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	55	93¢	$51	0x3b86e4…
09-25 13:46:24	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	25	93¢	$23	0x3a9127…