Realized P&L
-$6.07K
Unrealized P&L
+$5.67K
Hit rate
88.0%
Resolved
68
Trades
2,237
lifetime
Volume
$800.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$358
Open exposure
$153.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-05
last 10-27 01:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 28 days
Categories
Politics
55%
90%
-$8,194
Other
38%
96%
+$2,129
Crypto
7%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
47 active days in 12wk
• peak 81 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | No | +24,164 | $21,859 | 94¢ | $22.8K | +$975 | 08-26 00:16 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | -11,148 | -$10,747 | 98¢ | $-10920 | -$173 | 07-02 14:48 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +10,856 | $9,779 | 96¢ | $10.4K | +$631 | 08-14 04:12 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +10,185 | $9,428 | 96¢ | $9.8K | +$385 | 07-08 07:48 | |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | No | +9,439 | $8,781 | 96¢ | $9.1K | +$309 | 08-27 06:14 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +8,630 | $8,293 | 97¢ | $8.4K | +$108 | 09-03 17:04 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | +11,490 | $8,128 | 72¢ | $8.3K | +$203 | 10-20 12:55 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +8,308 | $8,014 | 98¢ | $8.2K | +$148 | 09-05 01:11 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +6,390 | $5,985 | 97¢ | $6.2K | +$236 | 09-16 20:15 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +5,500 | $5,126 | 97¢ | $5.3K | +$201 | 09-06 07:48 | |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | No | +4,800 | $4,332 | 96¢ | $4.6K | +$259 | 10-27 00:41 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +4,082 | $2,046 | 98¢ | $4.0K | +$1,948 | 09-20 07:14 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +4,130 | $3,486 | 82¢ | $3.4K | -$121 | 10-27 01:49 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +3,300 | $2,937 | 97¢ | $3.2K | +$257 | 07-17 09:06 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +3,300 | $3,058 | 94¢ | $3.1K | +$59 | 09-04 12:55 | |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | +4,480 | $3,002 | 68¢ | $3.1K | +$67 | 10-22 03:31 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | No | +3,300 | $3,069 | 92¢ | $3.0K | -$49 | 09-10 16:25 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | +4,550 | $3,003 | 66¢ | $3.0K | -$23 | 10-25 15:53 | |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | +3,800 | $3,040 | 78¢ | $2.9K | -$95 | 10-25 23:17 | |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | +4,060 | $3,045 | 72¢ | $2.9K | -$102 | 10-25 19:48 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +3,400 | $2,958 | 82¢ | $2.8K | -$153 | 08-20 08:16 | |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +3,000 | $2,686 | 93¢ | $2.8K | +$104 | 10-08 15:39 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,383 | $2,233 | 94¢ | $2.3K | +$20 | 09-16 23:10 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,400 | $2,070 | 92¢ | $2.2K | +$150 | 09-14 06:40 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,371 | $2,035 | 92¢ | $2.2K | +$159 | 09-04 06:40 | |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | -2,198 | -$2,098 | 99¢ | $-2169 | -$71 | 06-19 05:56 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | +1,980 | $1,700 | 90¢ | $1.8K | +$72 | 09-24 06:58 | |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | No | +1,833 | $1,643 | 96¢ | $1.8K | +$116 | 05-16 18:15 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | No | +1,810 | $1,502 | 84¢ | $1.5K | +$27 | 09-06 16:27 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | +1,650 | $1,502 | 92¢ | $1.5K | +$25 | 09-24 05:39 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 134 | $107.8K | 61,191 | 57,110 | +4,082 | open | — | 09-20 07:14 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | 145 | $57.0K | 28,930 | 28,930 | +0 | open | — | 10-23 16:04 |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | 145 | $41.0K | 34,471 | 10,307 | +24,164 | open | — | 08-26 00:16 |
| will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 | 57 | $36.3K | 20,750 | 20,750 | +0 | open | — | 07-21 06:46 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | 44 | $27.0K | 20,010 | 9,154 | +10,856 | open | — | 08-14 04:12 |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | 64 | $22.7K | 16,787 | 7,348 | +9,439 | open | — | 08-27 06:14 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026 | 1 | $20.9K | 20,966 | 0 | +20,966 | No | +$84 | 01-30 03:17 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 93 | $16.6K | 17,477 | 17,477 | +0 | open | — | 07-02 02:48 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 30 | $14.6K | 8,640 | 8,640 | +0 | No | -$1,054 | 03-02 11:39 |
| will the iranian regime fall by january 31 | 1 | $14.3K | 14,347 | 0 | +14,347 | No | +$57 | 01-30 03:21 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 11 | $13.4K | 9,524 | 9,524 | +0 | No | +$2,605 | 10-08 15:04 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | 3 | $12.8K | 13,049 | 0 | +13,049 | No | +$234 | 05-14 09:37 |
| Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 31 | $11.0K | 11,401 | 0 | +11,401 | Yes | +$446 | 07-14 21:08 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 7 | $10.9K | 11,000 | 0 | +11,000 | No | +$96 | 04-15 03:17 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 483 | $10.7K | 0 | 11,148 | -11,148 | open | — | 07-02 14:48 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 5 | $10.7K | 11,000 | 0 | +11,000 | No | +$302 | 05-06 06:19 |
| russian strike on a nato member by march 31 | 32 | $10.6K | 11,005 | 0 | +11,005 | No | +$411 | 03-20 09:27 |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | 4 | $10.5K | 5,500 | 5,500 | +0 | No | +$45 | 04-30 06:55 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 149 | $10.5K | 10,811 | 0 | +10,811 | No | +$333 | 02-01 21:10 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 14 | $10.3K | 5,500 | 5,500 | +0 | open | — | 06-16 09:35 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | 11 | $10.2K | 8,590 | 2,200 | +6,390 | open | — | 09-16 20:15 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 9 | $10.1K | 10,700 | 0 | +10,700 | Yes | -$10,144 | 05-06 06:01 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 3 | $10.1K | 11,610 | 0 | +11,610 | Yes | -$10,092 | 02-03 03:58 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | 3 | $9.5K | 9,730 | 0 | +9,730 | No | +$239 | 04-15 10:58 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 3 | $9.4K | 10,185 | 0 | +10,185 | open | — | 07-08 07:48 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 17 | $8.9K | 10,630 | 3,230 | +7,400 | Yes | +$2,741 | 08-17 02:35 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4 | $8.3K | 8,630 | 0 | +8,630 | open | — | 09-03 17:04 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 30 | $8.1K | 11,490 | 0 | +11,490 | open | — | 10-20 12:55 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | 5 | $8.1K | 5,700 | 3,300 | +2,400 | open | — | 09-14 06:40 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 2 | $8.1K | 8,500 | 0 | +8,500 | No | +$448 | 06-30 02:48 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||