Realized P&L (30d)
-$329
Unrealized P&L
+$6.05K
Hit rate
77.6%
Resolved (30d)
20
Trades (30d)
6,982
144,714 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$26.9K
$850.4K lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$69.1K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-05
last 11-03 14:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 69 days
Categories
Politics
57% 43% -$1,918
Other
34% 50% -$226
Sports
7% 50% +$291
Crypto
2% 67% -$1,231
Tech
0% 100% +$5
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 775 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +6,174 $4,971 82¢ $5.0K +$61 10-30 19:37
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +5,087 $4,116 87¢ $4.4K +$313 11-03 14:08
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +6,248 $5,071 60¢ $3.7K -$1,322 10-12 20:27
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +4,229 $3,197 88¢ $3.7K +$503 11-02 21:31
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +5,086 $4,256 72¢ $3.6K -$609 10-18 15:13
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +4,577 $3,181 68¢ $3.1K -$92 10-28 00:17
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +5,572 $2,672 53¢ $3.0K +$295 10-27 23:28
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +3,089 $2,436 88¢ $2.7K +$282 11-03 09:55
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +5,572 $2,879 47¢ $2.6K -$274 10-28 00:51
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No +4,328 $2,917 60¢ $2.6K -$326 11-02 19:59
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +6,245 $1,181 40¢ $2.5K +$1,317 10-15 12:46
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +2,605 $2,264 94¢ $2.5K +$198 09-21 12:34
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No +2,863 $1,419 85¢ $2.4K +$1,014 11-03 14:55
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +2,302 $1,175 92¢ $2.1K +$931 11-03 01:19
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +2,145 $1,839 85¢ $1.8K -$23 11-01 13:37
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +1,893 $1,639 96¢ $1.8K +$169 11-02 19:18
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +1,902 $1,353 94¢ $1.8K +$426 10-28 05:53
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +4,346 $1,445 40¢ $1.7K +$300 11-02 19:22
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +2,055 $1,654 84¢ $1.7K +$76 11-03 12:21
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No +1,676 $1,623 98¢ $1.6K +$19 10-01 18:38
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House No +1,945 $1,236 82¢ $1.6K +$368 10-21 09:57
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +4,577 $1,297 32¢ $1.5K +$191 10-27 21:50
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +1,569 $1,347 94¢ $1.5K +$135 10-29 17:26
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +1,935 $969 76¢ $1.5K +$511 09-22 20:17
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +2,357 $1,570 61¢ $1.4K -$131 10-18 21:36
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +5,085 $832 28¢ $1.4K +$607 10-18 14:25
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +1,498 $1,331 96¢ $1.4K +$100 11-03 11:49
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1,489 $1,339 96¢ $1.4K +$88 10-28 00:24
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes +1,711 $834 82¢ $1.4K +$577 11-02 15:39
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No +1,380 $959 94¢ $1.3K +$345 11-02 20:00