Realized P&L
-$3
Unrealized P&L
-$3
Hit rate
60.1%
Resolved
676
Trades
2,555
lifetime
Volume
$5.27K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$31
17 positions
First seen
2026-03-20
last 10-28 15:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 67 days
Categories
Politics
98% 90% $0
Other
1% 3% -$5
Crypto
0% 100% +$3
Sports
0% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
35 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -17 -$16 98¢ $-16 -$1 05-10 13:26
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -3 -$3 94¢ $-3 $0 08-01 06:43
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -2 -$2 96¢ $-2 $0 08-12 11:33
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +2 $2 100¢ $2 +$0 06-09 07:54
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +5 $3 38¢ $2 -$2 05-14 19:40
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +2 $1 68¢ $1 +$0 10-19 15:51
NATO article 5 before 2027? No +1 $1 96¢ $1 +$0 09-25 09:03
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 08-12 11:34
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? No -1 -$1 93¢ $-1 $0 05-03 09:49
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 09-25 09:04
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes +5 $1 10¢ $0 -$1 05-31 10:47
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? Yes +5 $0 2¢ $0 +$0 08-29 18:56
Will Michael Harris II win the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year award? Yes +5 $0 1¢ $0 +$0 10-28 15:34
Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League MVP Award? Yes +5 $0 1¢ $0 +$0 07-17 04:42
Will Cal Raleigh win the 2026 American League MVP Award? Yes +6 $0 0¢ $0 $0 06-24 06:52
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Yes +5 $0 0¢ $0 $0 05-08 04:02
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +5 $0 0¢ $0 $0 05-10 22:09