Bare-Patch-Airbag — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$99

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

80.0%

Resolved

437

Trades

4,503

lifetime

Volume

$11.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$19

20 positions

First seen

2026-05-26

last 11-06 21:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 89 days

Categories

Other

46% 78% +$71

Politics

37% 69% +$31

Tech

7% 62% -$14

Crypto

7% 83% +$8

Sports

2% 85% -$1

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (20) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	No	-5	-$5	99¢	$-5	+$0	06-12 05:47
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	+5	$3	97¢	$5	+$1	06-01 03:42
will bulk launch a token by december 31 2026	No	+2	$0	94¢	$2	+$2	06-19 01:46
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	No	+2	-$1	94¢	$2	+$2	06-22 08:23
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	Yes	+10	$3	12¢	$1	-$2	06-20 04:41
will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	+5	$2	16¢	$1	-$2	06-22 02:43
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	Yes	+5	$2	16¢	$1	-$2	06-19 20:35
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+1	$0	92¢	$1	+$0	06-03 03:19
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	+10	$3	5¢	$0	-$2	06-19 19:32
zcashs orchard pool confirmed exploited 20260605210804589	Yes	+10	$2	4¢	$0	-$1	06-21 18:30
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	+5	$1	7¢	$0	$0	06-18 12:03
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	+5	$1	5¢	$0	-$1	06-20 03:35
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?	No	+5	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	06-19 00:06
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?	Yes	+5	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	06-18 10:42
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	+5	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	06-22 13:56
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+5	$0	2¢	$0	$0	06-19 16:36
StandX FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	+5	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	06-19 05:55
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	Yes	+5	$0	2¢	$0	$0	07-14 08:19
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes	+5	$1	2¢	$0	$0	06-20 17:29
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$0	95¢	$0	+$0	06-02 13:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	71	$279	192	192	+0	No	+$6	06-11 03:07
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	63	$173	141	136	+5	Yes	-$1	06-06 17:56
iran closes its airspace by june 15	39	$163	105	100	+5	Yes	+$0	06-07 19:01
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	75	$152	166	161	+5	Yes	+$2	06-16 16:32
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	31	$147	85	85	+0	No	+$1	06-02 10:31
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	54	$129	133	133	+0	Yes	+$2	06-14 07:07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	58	$120	145	140	+5	Yes	+$7	06-20 20:00
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	75	$112	261	190	+71	Yes	-$16	05-28 06:20
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	23	$112	89	99	-10	No	-$2	05-27 21:45
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	40	$105	100	100	+0	Yes	+$4	06-23 09:23
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	40	$98	100	95	+5	Yes	+$2	06-20 13:18
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	22	$96	55	55	+0	No	+$4	06-19 16:56
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	30	$93	65	65	+0	No	+$2	06-02 20:00
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	22	$92	65	59	+6	Yes	-$2	06-07 18:36
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	32	$91	90	90	+0	Yes	+$4	06-15 19:15
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	34	$89	86	77	+9	Yes	-$2	06-13 03:04
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	42	$88	92	92	+0	No	+$4	06-19 19:22
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	25	$85	65	65	+0	No	+$1	06-02 11:39
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	34	$85	83	78	+5	Yes	+$1	06-20 14:08
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	18	$81	51	46	+5	Yes	-$2	06-22 01:57
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?	25	$79	60	55	+5	Yes	-$2	06-04 04:29
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	22	$74	59	54	+5	Yes	-$1	06-14 21:15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	34	$73	74	74	+0	open	—	06-23 13:13
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	26	$72	68	68	+0	No	+$2	06-23 15:02
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	26	$71	68	68	+0	Yes	+$4	06-19 23:12
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	47	$69	75	75	+0	open	—	06-20 07:27
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	31	$68	70	70	+0	Yes	+$2	06-23 11:00
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	24	$67	45	45	+0	open	—	06-11 03:54
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	34	$67	85	80	+5	Yes	$0	06-14 21:02
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	31	$66	75	75	+0	Yes	+$4	06-17 19:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 21:18:13	Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0xeb8636…
11-04 01:23:54	Will the Republican Party win the NC-08 House seat?	No	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0xa8fa77…
11-04 00:18:33	Will the Republican Party win the FL-02 House seat?	No	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xb1d7fa…
11-03 05:00:39	Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x9a4fb5…
11-03 00:29:01	Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x574da4…
10-28 10:47:01	Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x4a444f…
10-26 09:40:26	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x19f485…
10-16 00:43:09	Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0x4329a0…
10-04 21:02:13	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x30d5e6…
09-17 09:05:52	Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x8752f3…
09-14 22:19:46	Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xe16a2c…
09-07 00:42:25	Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x50cf82…
09-03 16:40:13	Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xffd163…
09-01 14:07:54	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0xf1e71b…
08-27 09:22:39	Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x736e3c…
08-25 01:08:19	Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xc34217…
08-21 10:19:57	SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	No	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xb14e6b…
08-20 12:28:33	Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?	No	SELL	9	44¢	$4	0xc73dad…
08-20 06:32:40	Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?	No	SELL	1	44¢	$1	0xd84f68…
08-12 04:43:04	Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xcc3909…
08-11 23:22:18	Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0xbb58d9…
08-06 08:02:11	Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0xa7b039…
08-02 17:45:38	Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?	No	SELL	3	69¢	$2	0xd7ff20…
07-24 05:34:33	Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xb782dd…
07-22 23:49:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xe10cba…
07-22 09:18:21	Will Frank F. Blas Jr. win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0xf6eb04…
07-19 21:50:15	Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?	No	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x2df929…
07-19 10:49:15	Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0xd50a8b…
07-19 04:17:00	Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x881297…
07-15 18:27:22	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x478b32…
07-15 18:27:22	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0x1ab3f4…
07-15 03:24:40	Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0xbdfa5f…
07-15 03:10:01	Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x539dd7…
07-14 08:19:08	Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xa53319…
07-14 07:59:56	Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x971d6e…
07-13 16:32:44	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	52¢	$1	0x5ad3e8…
07-13 16:28:35	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0x03ad77…
07-13 04:46:23	Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0x1c7bc2…
07-12 21:13:53	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x40fc85…
07-11 01:45:22	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x8fa3f1…
07-11 01:21:01	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-06 House seat?	Yes	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xa11201…
07-10 19:27:07	Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?	No	SELL	15	33¢	$5	0xc6ab89…
07-09 14:46:01	Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xe94ce4…
07-08 21:44:43	will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt35b	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x548536…
07-06 12:36:55	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x114877…
07-05 22:48:49	Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	No	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xbd1e72…
07-03 10:39:07	AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	No	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xc2076c…
07-03 04:20:28	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	9	70¢	$7	0x97c083…
07-02 23:28:05	will jp morgan jpm q2 investment banking fees be above 2pt85b	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x75d36f…
07-02 17:16:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0xbb6ad8…
07-02 08:09:47	Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?	No	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x440034…
07-02 06:40:11	ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xfc48ad…
07-01 14:45:43	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x6104d7…
07-01 05:57:23	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x3b63cd…
07-01 05:02:20	Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0xf75659…
07-01 01:33:47	Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0xffff8a…
07-01 01:33:43	Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	1	57¢	$1	0xdcf783…
07-01 01:15:04	Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0xd119e8…
07-01 01:13:59	Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0xeefe01…
06-30 17:17:07	New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?	No	SELL	7	49¢	$3	0x05b0a4…
06-30 17:07:38	Will Frank F. Blas Jr. win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x977276…
06-30 03:31:07	Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0xa69448…
06-30 01:08:38	Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?	No	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x11fb61…
06-29 20:01:56	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x73deca…
06-29 12:58:07	Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x435bb3…
06-29 00:23:01	Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	Yes	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0xefce56…
06-28 21:43:07	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x1482bf…
06-28 17:09:34	SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	47¢	$0	0x48c70b…
06-28 14:27:35	SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	47¢	$2	0xd107f7…
06-28 04:14:28	Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?	No	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x975a73…
06-27 17:09:31	will openais valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 366 424	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xe9418e…
06-27 15:54:20	Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0xe071d4…
06-27 15:54:20	Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0x9f46ed…
06-27 09:20:56	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0x65f11e…
06-26 21:51:56	Will the Republican Party win the NY-23 House seat?	No	SELL	5	16¢	$1	0xe2c99e…
06-26 20:06:50	Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x06d7bf…
06-26 17:40:05	Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x4678c9…
06-26 15:45:40	Spain snap election called in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xcd7b79…
06-26 06:48:02	Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x1fda7b…
06-25 21:45:58	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xe91129…
06-25 20:34:31	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xd97dc1…
06-25 20:26:44	Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x803f73…
06-25 17:34:01	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xc127ac…
06-25 15:50:29	Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0xd3a97a…
06-25 15:27:08	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xa9a8c3…
06-25 14:59:37	Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xe5efeb…
06-25 13:51:11	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x2a238b…
06-25 09:03:43	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x5fe63d…
06-25 08:48:11	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xe713e0…
06-25 06:58:10	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0xfb1bab…
06-25 06:42:35	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	57¢	$6	0x667637…
06-25 04:02:14	will prabowo subianto cease to be president of indonesia by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	10	9¢	$1	0x953e62…
06-25 03:56:38	will prabowo subianto cease to be president of indonesia by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xe15639…
06-25 03:56:16	will prabowo subianto cease to be president of indonesia by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xfc4220…
06-25 03:56:16	will prabowo subianto cease to be president of indonesia by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x8c381f…
06-25 03:56:05	will prabowo subianto cease to be president of indonesia by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xba278c…
06-25 01:46:05	Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xde42a5…
06-24 20:45:50	anthropic vs openai higher valuation on december 31	OpenAI	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x3d0633…
06-24 18:01:13	Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x688183…
06-24 14:14:16	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x4ffb3e…