Realized P&L (30d)
-$239
Unrealized P&L
+$1.10K
Hit rate
79.6%
Resolved (30d)
19
Trades (30d)
54
1,782 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$2.50K
$132.4K lifetime
Avg / trade
$74
Open exposure
$10.1K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-26
last 10-22 15:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 136 days
Categories
Politics
53% 79% -$1,360
Other
45% 79% -$2,807
Sports
1% 67% +$608
Crypto
1% 50% +$42
Tech
0% 100% +$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
44 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +2,000 $1,455 81¢ $1.6K +$165 10-06 06:11
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,218 $969 82¢ $1.0K +$36 07-21 11:12
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No -1,000 -$978 97¢ $-971 +$7 09-22 13:52
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -650 -$686 97¢ $-629 +$57 08-30 16:57
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -550 -$520 94¢ $-520 +$0 10-05 23:52
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +445 $318 100¢ $443 +$125 10-01 15:12
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +423 $281 94¢ $395 +$114 07-30 09:59
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No -430 -$400 92¢ $-393 +$6 06-21 14:55
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +390 $297 94¢ $367 +$70 10-22 05:19
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No +350 $254 97¢ $340 +$86 08-29 20:39
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +350 $188 94¢ $329 +$141 09-01 17:46
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No +350 $230 85¢ $298 +$68 08-28 14:39
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No -300 -$270 97¢ $-291 -$21 06-08 21:38
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No +303 $238 95¢ $288 +$50 10-05 17:40
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31 No +250 $182 88¢ $220 +$38 08-05 03:10
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? No +358 $279 60¢ $216 -$62 08-03 21:34
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +200 $177 94¢ $189 +$12 08-05 03:11
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +277 $213 68¢ $187 -$27 09-01 19:06
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +213 $173 83¢ $177 +$4 05-04 12:46
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +170 $132 98¢ $166 +$33 10-06 06:10
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No -140 -$135 95¢ $-133 +$2 09-26 22:25
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026 No +127 $72 99¢ $126 +$55 08-20 17:19
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No -685 -$122 17¢ $-119 +$3 09-19 20:16
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +151 $106 78¢ $118 +$13 09-10 05:32
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? No -154 -$178 74¢ $-114 +$64 10-22 15:35
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? Yes +143 $99 74¢ $107 +$8 10-15 12:55
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +100 $70 96¢ $96 +$26 09-06 19:19
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +100 $87 92¢ $92 +$4 09-01 18:48
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +100 $90 90¢ $90 +$0 09-01 18:44
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? No +100 $74 90¢ $90 +$16 09-01 18:46