Realized P&L (90d)
-$186
Unrealized P&L
+$1.09K
Hit rate
73.1%
Resolved (90d)
76
Trades (90d)
292
1,766 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$17.6K
$131.4K lifetime
Avg / trade
$74
Open exposure
$10.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-26
last 10-22 15:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 136 days
Categories
Politics
53% 79% -$1,360
Other
45% 79% -$2,807
Sports
1% 67% +$608
Crypto
1% 50% +$42
Tech
0% 100% +$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
45 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +2,000 $1,455 82¢ $1.7K +$195 10-06 06:11
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,218 $969 82¢ $1.0K +$36 07-21 11:12
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No -1,000 -$978 97¢ $-970 +$8 09-22 13:52
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -650 -$686 97¢ $-628 +$58 08-30 16:57
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -550 -$520 96¢ $-525 -$5 10-05 23:52
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +445 $318 98¢ $436 +$118 10-01 15:12
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No -430 -$400 92¢ $-398 +$2 06-21 14:55
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +423 $281 94¢ $395 +$114 07-30 09:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +390 $297 97¢ $378 +$82 10-22 05:19
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +350 $188 94¢ $329 +$141 09-01 17:46
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No +350 $254 92¢ $322 +$68 08-29 20:39
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No -300 -$270 97¢ $-290 -$20 06-08 21:38
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No +350 $230 82¢ $289 +$59 08-28 14:39
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No +303 $238 95¢ $288 +$50 10-05 17:40
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31 No +250 $182 88¢ $221 +$39 08-05 03:10
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? No +358 $279 59¢ $211 -$68 08-03 21:34
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +200 $177 94¢ $189 +$12 08-05 03:11
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +277 $213 67¢ $185 -$28 09-01 19:06
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +213 $173 84¢ $180 +$7 05-04 12:46
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +170 $132 98¢ $167 +$34 10-06 06:10
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No -140 -$135 97¢ $-136 -$1 09-26 22:25
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No -685 -$122 19¢ $-128 -$6 09-19 20:16
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026 No +127 $72 99¢ $127 +$55 08-20 17:19
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +151 $106 80¢ $120 +$14 09-10 05:32
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? Yes +143 $99 82¢ $117 +$18 10-15 12:55
Trump declares election interference national emergency? No -154 -$178 74¢ $-115 +$63 10-22 15:35
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +100 $70 97¢ $97 +$27 09-06 19:19
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +100 $90 91¢ $91 +$1 09-01 18:44
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +100 $87 91¢ $91 +$4 09-01 18:48
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? No +100 $74 88¢ $88 +$14 09-01 18:46