Realized P&L
-$3.52K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.07K
Hit rate
77.2%
Resolved
336
Trades
1,782
lifetime
Volume
$132.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$74
Open exposure
$10.1K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-26
last 10-22 15:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 136 days
Categories
Politics
53% 79% -$1,360
Other
45% 79% -$2,807
Sports
1% 67% +$608
Crypto
1% 50% +$42
Tech
0% 100% +$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
44 active days in 12wk • peak 37 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +2,000 $1,455 80¢ $1.6K +$135 10-06 06:11
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,218 $969 82¢ $999 +$30 07-21 11:12
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No -1,000 -$978 97¢ $-971 +$7 09-22 13:52
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -650 -$686 97¢ $-629 +$57 08-30 16:57
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -550 -$520 94¢ $-520 +$0 10-05 23:52
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +445 $318 100¢ $443 +$125 10-01 15:12
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No -430 -$400 92¢ $-396 +$4 06-21 14:55
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +423 $281 94¢ $395 +$114 07-30 09:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +390 $297 93¢ $363 +$66 10-22 05:19
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No +350 $254 97¢ $340 +$86 08-29 20:39
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +350 $188 94¢ $329 +$141 09-01 17:46
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No +350 $230 85¢ $298 +$68 08-28 14:39
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No -300 -$270 97¢ $-291 -$21 06-08 21:38
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No +303 $238 95¢ $288 +$50 10-05 17:40
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31 No +250 $182 88¢ $220 +$38 08-05 03:10
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? No +358 $279 60¢ $216 -$62 08-03 21:34
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +277 $213 70¢ $192 -$21 09-01 19:06
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +200 $177 94¢ $189 +$12 08-05 03:11
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +213 $173 84¢ $178 +$5 05-04 12:46
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +170 $132 97¢ $165 +$32 10-06 06:10
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No -140 -$135 94¢ $-132 +$3 09-26 22:25
nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026 No +127 $72 99¢ $126 +$55 08-20 17:19
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +151 $106 80¢ $121 +$15 09-10 05:32
Trump declares election interference national emergency? No -154 -$178 76¢ $-117 +$61 10-22 15:35
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? Yes +143 $99 78¢ $111 +$12 10-15 12:55
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No -685 -$122 16¢ $-109 +$13 09-19 20:16
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +100 $70 96¢ $96 +$26 09-06 19:19
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +100 $87 92¢ $92 +$4 09-01 18:48
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? No +100 $74 90¢ $90 +$16 09-01 18:46
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +100 $90 89¢ $89 -$1 09-01 18:44