Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 13?
No won
Total volume
$6,533
$58,402 in 24h
Trades
46
Unique wallets
35
Liquidity
$0
Latest YES mid
0¢
Latest NO mid
100¢
End date
2026-05-14
First seen
2026-05-13
last 05-14 04:02
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-1.7¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $4.7K
vs crowd: 2% YES on $5.9K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 3 | $17 | $5.2K | $5.1K |
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | $50 | $5 | +$45 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 30 | $35 | $653 | $618 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $4.7K | $4.7K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | — | $1.0K | $1.0K |
| Median | 10 | $10 | $60 | $50 |
| Below median | 13 | $3 | $66 | $63 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | $22 | $20 | +$2 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $66 | — | +$66 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Happy-Default 0x4699…e03c | No | +4,746 | $4,654 | $4,654 | 3 | 05-13 23:21 |
| Key-Pitcher 0x6dec…cf0c | Yes | +755 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 05-13 22:52 |
| Respectful-Clan 0x6e1d…d0fa | Yes | +563 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 05-13 12:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x7544…4fd9 | No | +523 | $506 | $506 | 1 | 05-13 20:03 |
| Evil-Pint 0x2322…3ede | No | +499 | $498 | $498 | 1 | 05-14 03:31 |
| (anonymous) 0x0dfa…6bbd | Yes | +448 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-14 03:10 |
| Lined-Crew 0xcf15…9d7b | Yes | +382 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-14 00:15 |
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | Yes | +144 | $50 | $50 | 2 | 05-13 15:58 |
| Unhappy-Band 0x7fca…ac29 | No | +60 | $56 | $56 | 6 | 05-13 13:38 |
| Scaly-Waterbed 0xd65a…21eb | No | +41 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 05-13 21:04 |
| Rude-Property 0x3928…1e39 | Yes | +36 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 23:27 |
| Usable-Tender 0xd937…573b | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 22:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x2e1e…f936 | No | +20 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 05-13 04:33 |
| Unaware-Hurry 0x95ce…981a | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 05-13 07:19 |
| Jam-Packed-Excursion 0x31a8…140e | No | +6 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 05-13 21:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x5c8e…0df9 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-13 22:54 |
| Unfortunate-Harvest 0x352d…cb9e | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-14 01:45 |
| Blank-Gymnastics 0x70b8…ec6c | No | +3 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-14 02:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xe877…25c0 | Yes | +3 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 05-14 03:00 |
| Conventional-Passing 0x96c3…d0ef | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-13 13:53 |
| Warmhearted-Profit 0x813e…d482 | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 05-13 19:38 |
| Vigilant-Association 0x17f0…00c7 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 20:13 |
| Damp-Ligula 0x26d2…ed55 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-13 21:02 |
| Definitive-Scout 0x7320…c68d | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-14 02:59 |
| Unwilling-Fibrosis 0xc660…138e | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-14 03:02 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-14 04:02:03 | Ornery-Temporary 0x385a…6933 | No | SELL | 407 | 100¢ | $407 | 0x19db90… |
| 05-14 04:01:49 | Slight-Barber 0xe3d7…46bf | No | SELL | 40 | 100¢ | $40 | 0x426d00… |
| 05-14 03:31:25 | Evil-Pint 0x2322…3ede | No | BUY | 499 | 100¢ | $498 | 0xbdcf45… |
| 05-14 03:10:32 | (anonymous) 0x0dfa…6bbd | Yes | BUY | 448 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x50a96c… |
| 05-14 03:02:12 | Unwilling-Fibrosis 0xc660…138e | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x1e6314… |
| 05-14 03:00:39 | (anonymous) 0xe877…25c0 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xe01b18… |
| 05-14 02:59:04 | Definitive-Scout 0x7320…c68d | No | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x4d7950… |
| 05-14 02:31:38 | Young-Clip 0xc27f…0ee8 | No | SELL | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0xe0b343… |
| 05-14 02:00:46 | Blank-Gymnastics 0x70b8…ec6c | No | BUY | 3 | 99¢ | $3 | 0x81d18e… |
| 05-14 01:45:13 | (anonymous) 0xbfbd…2fd8 | No | SELL | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x528d4f… |
| 05-14 01:45:13 | Unfortunate-Harvest 0x352d…cb9e | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xf4c779… |
| 05-14 00:37:05 | Shocking-Treat 0x3c5a…0a4f | Yes | SELL | 790 | 1¢ | $4 | 0xae97b5… |
| 05-14 00:15:13 | Lined-Crew 0xcf15…9d7b | Yes | BUY | 382 | 2¢ | $8 | 0x89c05c… |
| 05-13 23:27:00 | Rude-Property 0x3928…1e39 | Yes | BUY | 36 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x2a63a5… |
| 05-13 23:21:49 | Happy-Default 0x4699…e03c | No | BUY | 4,100 | 98¢ | $4,024 | 0x9f6e87… |
| 05-13 22:54:10 | (anonymous) 0x5c8e…0df9 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x5acd01… |
| 05-13 22:52:05 | Key-Pitcher 0x6dec…cf0c | Yes | BUY | 755 | 3¢ | $22 | 0x4b0b9e… |
| 05-13 22:17:44 | Usable-Tender 0xd937…573b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xf6a354… |
| 05-13 21:51:45 | Full-Hunting 0x3756…cffa | No | SELL | 34 | 97¢ | $33 | 0x8f4abc… |
| 05-13 21:34:13 | Jam-Packed-Excursion 0x31a8…140e | No | BUY | 6 | 97¢ | $6 | 0xe659bf… |
| 05-13 21:19:17 | (anonymous) 0xf145…2e1b | Yes | SELL | 38 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x7b27d9… |
| 05-13 21:11:49 | (anonymous) 0xf145…2e1b | Yes | BUY | 38 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x5c4729… |
| 05-13 21:04:07 | Scaly-Waterbed 0xd65a…21eb | No | BUY | 41 | 98¢ | $40 | 0x67263a… |
| 05-13 21:02:52 | Damp-Ligula 0x26d2…ed55 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x6b6923… |
| 05-13 20:58:36 | Happy-Default 0x4699…e03c | No | BUY | 451 | 98¢ | $441 | 0x0d62f0… |
| 05-13 20:58:10 | Happy-Default 0x4699…e03c | No | BUY | 195 | 97¢ | $189 | 0x07c961… |
| 05-13 20:49:14 | Full-Hunting 0x3756…cffa | No | SELL | 35 | 97¢ | $33 | 0xc7e83c… |
| 05-13 20:13:34 | Vigilant-Association 0x17f0…00c7 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x757136… |
| 05-13 20:03:11 | (anonymous) 0x7544…4fd9 | No | BUY | 523 | 97¢ | $506 | 0x852f7e… |
| 05-13 19:38:25 | Warmhearted-Profit 0x813e…d482 | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x59d677… |
| 05-13 18:52:55 | Warmhearted-Profit 0x813e…d482 | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x94d3da… |
| 05-13 18:43:35 | (anonymous) 0x388b…ac5a | No | SELL | 4 | 95¢ | $4 | 0x8ba1aa… |
| 05-13 15:58:23 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 36¢ | $6 | 0xfa3d7f… |
| 05-13 15:58:20 | Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | Yes | BUY | 129 | 34¢ | $44 | 0xe28858… |
| 05-13 15:53:42 | Essential-Hurt-Reset 0xeedc…91c8 | Yes | SELL | 388 | 24¢ | $92 | 0xb61748… |
| 05-13 13:53:28 | Conventional-Passing 0x96c3…d0ef | No | BUY | 2 | 88¢ | $2 | 0xaf03da… |
| 05-13 13:38:30 | Unhappy-Band 0x7fca…ac29 | No | BUY | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0x18a180… |
| 05-13 13:38:25 | Unhappy-Band 0x7fca…ac29 | No | BUY | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0x1f86d0… |
| 05-13 13:38:22 | Unhappy-Band 0x7fca…ac29 | No | BUY | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0xf8d4a3… |
| 05-13 13:38:16 | Unhappy-Band 0x7fca…ac29 | No | BUY | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0x4bc207… |
| 05-13 13:38:15 | Unhappy-Band 0x7fca…ac29 | No | BUY | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0x601d07… |
| 05-13 13:38:13 | Unhappy-Band 0x7fca…ac29 | No | BUY | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0xde8554… |
| 05-13 12:23:12 | Respectful-Clan 0x6e1d…d0fa | Yes | BUY | 563 | 3¢ | $17 | 0x515849… |
| 05-13 07:19:17 | Unaware-Hurry 0x95ce…981a | No | BUY | 10 | 98¢ | $9 | 0xa741de… |
| 05-13 06:13:39 | Voluminous-Lava 0x46b3…d3de | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc178a3… |
| 05-13 04:33:42 | (anonymous) 0x2e1e…f936 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0x7af162… |