Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$338
$2 in 24h
Trades
46
Unique wallets
24
Liquidity
$620
Latest YES mid
25¢
Latest NO mid
75¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-31
last 07-27 10:34
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | $31 | $84 | $53 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 7 | $9 | $68 | $59 |
| 🐟 Fish | 4 | $9 | — | +$9 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 11 | $16 | $6 | +$10 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $40 | $23 | +$17 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| Median | 1 | — | — | +— |
| Below median | 4 | $4 | $1 | +$3 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $9 | $14 | $5 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | — | $114 | $114 |
| unranked | 7 | $8 | $5 | +$3 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plush-Dirt 0x9d69…ab3a | No | +95 | $77 | $77 | 2 | 07-07 08:31 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +74 | $31 | $31 | 4 | 06-25 12:02 |
| Subdued-Revenant 0xcf07…c770 | No | +65 | $37 | $37 | 2 | 06-19 00:23 |
| Teeming-Puppet 0x4388…5050 | No | +28 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 06-26 06:55 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +18 | $1 | $16 | 6 | 07-27 10:34 |
| (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | +15 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-08 03:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | No | +15 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 07-07 13:17 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +13 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 07-19 02:13 |
| Far-Flung-Weird 0x0309…22d1 | Yes | +10 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 06-26 06:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x66ec…3adf | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-24 10:10 |
| Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | No | +4 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 07-17 02:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x3c42…5180 | Yes | +3 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-19 02:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x63d5…0e91 | Yes | +3 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-27 10:34 |
| (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | Yes | +2 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-24 10:10 |
| Loving-Hate 0x48c4…19e5 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-02 01:19 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 10:34:51 | (anonymous) 0x63d5…0e91 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 30¢ | $1 | 0xd605b4… |
| 07-27 10:34:51 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 3 | 30¢ | $1 | 0xd605b4… |
| 07-24 10:10:09 | (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 20¢ | $0 | 0x162a2d… |
| 07-24 10:10:09 | (anonymous) 0x66ec…3adf | Yes | BUY | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0x162a2d… |
| 07-24 10:10:09 | (anonymous) 0x8bf2…0d85 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x162a2d… |
| 07-19 02:13:51 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 3 | 70¢ | $2 | 0xfee7b8… |
| 07-19 02:13:51 | (anonymous) 0x3c42…5180 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 30¢ | $1 | 0xfee7b8… |
| 07-17 02:55:54 | Frail-Prayer 0x9422…f273 | No | BUY | 4 | 70¢ | $3 | 0x986777… |
| 07-17 02:55:54 | Back-Daddy 0x3287…a2b2 | No | SELL | 4 | 70¢ | $3 | 0x986777… |
| 07-09 04:17:04 | Humongous-Pharmacopoeia 0x6e35…a3bd | Yes | SELL | 4 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x4fb030… |
| 07-09 04:17:04 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 4 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x4fb030… |
| 07-08 03:48:07 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 15 | 29¢ | $4 | 0xfa906b… |
| 07-08 03:48:07 | (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | BUY | 15 | 29¢ | $4 | 0xfa906b… |
| 07-08 03:28:28 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | No | SELL | 6 | 71¢ | $5 | 0xd46f6e… |
| 07-08 03:28:28 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 6 | 29¢ | $2 | 0xd46f6e… |
| 07-07 13:17:01 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 1 | 44¢ | $1 | 0xe86212… |
| 07-07 13:17:01 | (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | No | BUY | 15 | 75¢ | $11 | 0xe86212… |
| 07-07 13:17:01 | (anonymous) 0x2baf…70ad | No | BUY | 7 | 76¢ | $5 | 0xe86212… |
| 07-07 13:17:01 | Short-Cloves 0xd104…7c02 | No | SELL | 49 | 75¢ | $37 | 0xe86212… |
| 07-07 13:17:01 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 25¢ | $7 | 0xe86212… |
| 07-07 08:31:44 | Short-Cloves 0xd104…7c02 | No | SELL | 30 | 82¢ | $25 | 0x393bde… |
| 07-07 08:31:44 | Plush-Dirt 0x9d69…ab3a | No | BUY | 30 | 82¢ | $25 | 0x393bde… |
| 07-07 08:31:34 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 19¢ | $5 | 0xa8a672… |
| 07-07 08:31:34 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 19¢ | $8 | 0xa8a672… |
| 07-07 08:31:34 | Plush-Dirt 0x9d69…ab3a | No | BUY | 65 | 81¢ | $53 | 0xa8a672… |
| 07-03 15:46:04 | Humongous-Settlement 0x17b7…1ecc | Yes | SELL | 8 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x002bd6… |
| 07-03 15:46:04 | Short-Cloves 0xd104…7c02 | No | SELL | 8 | 82¢ | $6 | 0x002bd6… |
| 07-02 01:19:01 | Loving-Hate 0x48c4…19e5 | No | BUY | 1 | 81¢ | $1 | 0xd569e6… |
| 07-02 01:19:01 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 19¢ | $0 | 0xd569e6… |
| 06-30 14:09:13 | Short-Cloves 0xd104…7c02 | No | SELL | 9 | 82¢ | $7 | 0x3e0b7c… |
| 06-30 14:09:13 | Humongous-Settlement 0x17b7…1ecc | Yes | SELL | 9 | 18¢ | $2 | 0x3e0b7c… |
| 06-26 06:55:55 | Teeming-Puppet 0x4388…5050 | No | BUY | 28 | 61¢ | $17 | 0xe3941c… |
| 06-26 06:55:55 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 5 | 61¢ | $3 | 0xe3941c… |
| 06-26 06:55:55 | (anonymous) 0x8bf2…0d85 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 40¢ | $3 | 0xe3941c… |
| 06-26 06:55:55 | Far-Flung-Weird 0x0309…22d1 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 38¢ | $2 | 0xe3941c… |
| 06-25 12:02:29 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 48¢ | $0 | 0x6aa50b… |
| 06-25 12:02:29 | Punctual-Hydrogen 0x8b44…63fb | No | SELL | 9 | 51¢ | $5 | 0x6aa50b… |
| 06-25 12:02:29 | (anonymous) 0xb2bc…0e1f | Yes | SELL | 10 | 49¢ | $5 | 0x6aa50b… |
| 06-25 11:58:31 | (anonymous) 0xb2bc…0e1f | Yes | BUY | 10 | 59¢ | $6 | 0x88f1df… |
| 06-25 11:58:31 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 10 | 41¢ | $4 | 0x88f1df… |
| 06-19 00:23:31 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 43¢ | $1 | 0x2d259a… |
| 06-19 00:23:31 | Subdued-Revenant 0xcf07…c770 | No | BUY | 2 | 57¢ | $1 | 0x2d259a… |
| 06-19 00:23:29 | Subdued-Revenant 0xcf07…c770 | No | BUY | 63 | 57¢ | $36 | 0xf3c249… |
| 06-19 00:23:29 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 63 | 43¢ | $27 | 0xf3c249… |
| 05-31 14:16:35 | Quarterly-Variety 0x5b45…db25 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 35¢ | $3 | 0xc236e1… |
| 05-31 14:16:35 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 35¢ | $3 | 0xc236e1… |