Large-Ecology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$622

Unrealized P&L

+$24

Hit rate

57.6%

Resolved

1,198

Trades

26,855

lifetime

Volume

$51.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$695

30 positions

First seen

2026-02-28

last 10-27 05:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 211 days

Categories

Politics

70% 57% +$181

Other

21% 48% -$631

Crypto

7% 42% -$143

Sports

1% 69% +$3

Tech

1% 55% -$33

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 354 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-224	-$181	82¢	$-182	-$1	10-09 03:23
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	-63	-$57	100¢	$-62	-$5	05-14 01:17
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	+51	$15	94¢	$48	+$33	07-30 23:26
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	-49	-$45	97¢	$-48	-$3	10-09 03:23
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	-54	-$34	86¢	$-46	-$12	05-14 01:17
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-38	-$30	94¢	$-36	-$5	10-27 02:59
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	-32	-$31	98¢	$-31	+$0	05-14 01:17
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+24	$21	98¢	$23	+$2	10-06 21:21
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-19	-$18	99¢	$-19	-$1	05-14 01:17
Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	+16	$15	99¢	$16	+$1	09-13 22:01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Yes	+17	$12	89¢	$15	+$3	10-09 21:11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+17	$14	84¢	$15	+$1	08-27 15:23
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+16	$14	86¢	$13	$0	10-13 13:40
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	Yes	+13	$10	94¢	$12	+$2	10-14 22:42
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	+12	$11	98¢	$12	+$1	10-27 02:59
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	No	+12	$6	98¢	$12	+$6	10-10 20:25
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+12	$12	94¢	$12	$0	09-08 01:34
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	No	+14	$9	79¢	$11	+$2	10-02 05:21
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	No	-10	-$10	98¢	$-10	$0	05-14 01:17
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	+10	$8	96¢	$10	+$2	10-27 02:59
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	-8	-$6	94¢	$-7	-$1	09-16 19:04
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	No	+7	$7	99¢	$7	+$0	10-09 15:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+8	$5	88¢	$7	+$2	08-26 00:25
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	-7	-$6	97¢	$-7	-$1	10-27 02:59
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	+7	$6	88¢	$6	$0	09-28 21:41
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	-6	-$4	90¢	$-6	-$2	05-14 01:17
Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	+6	$6	92¢	$6	$0	10-07 18:04
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+6	$5	98¢	$6	+$1	10-16 02:39
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+6	$5	96¢	$6	+$0	08-25 22:14
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	No	+6	$5	91¢	$5	+$0	08-27 23:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	465	$1.3K	966	1,180	-214	open	—	10-09 03:23
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	451	$1.2K	1,496	1,449	+47	Yes	+$41	04-08 00:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	223	$916	1,690	1,165	+525	No	+$93	06-04 00:17
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	193	$818	1,234	1,136	+98	Yes	+$4	04-23 01:12
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	412	$771	1,104	902	+202	Yes	+$35	08-11 22:58
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	287	$708	1,061	800	+261	Yes	-$51	04-08 01:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	345	$680	1,161	1,095	+66	No	+$4	05-31 01:39
will iran strike israel on march 10	159	$669	500	500	+0	Yes	+$1	03-17 02:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	291	$634	1,191	802	+390	Yes	+$31	06-17 23:58
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	325	$586	980	980	+0	No	+$53	03-24 14:22
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	197	$567	1,007	800	+207	Yes	-$38	04-08 23:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	258	$557	632	530	+102	Yes	+$27	06-16 03:25
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	153	$551	1,589	431	+1,158	Yes	+$3	03-13 22:26
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	257	$517	878	622	+255	No	-$139	04-22 05:43
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	251	$499	1,553	1,478	+75	No	-$59	03-31 02:08
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	55	$477	565	565	+0	Yes	+$399	03-26 07:26
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	255	$470	842	813	+29	No	-$1	03-31 20:31
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	215	$461	980	963	+17	Yes	+$36	04-07 23:15
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	148	$417	463	365	+98	Yes	+$60	04-22 11:13
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	188	$410	908	838	+70	No	-$43	04-30 21:06
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	148	$407	350	275	+74	Yes	+$36	04-21 18:01
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	216	$397	206	302	-96	No	-$6	05-29 14:10
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	168	$373	362	341	+21	No	-$12	04-16 02:50
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	81	$371	187	187	+0	Yes	+$3	04-12 22:31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	204	$369	302	263	+39	No	-$1	04-30 03:06
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	108	$363	355	242	+113	Yes	-$1	04-16 19:55
iran closes its airspace by june 8	126	$353	428	168	+260	Yes	+$1	06-08 04:18
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	151	$343	337	337	+0	No	+$1	03-28 14:59
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	93	$342	233	169	+64	Yes	+$23	03-24 13:49
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	204	$328	742	412	+331	Yes	+$6	07-22 13:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 05:30:39	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x5e4d0f…
10-27 05:30:38	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	No	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0xe4f8ee…
10-27 05:30:38	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?	Yes	SELL	33	2¢	$0	0xc6d6ac…
10-27 05:30:38	Will Markwayne Mullin leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0x418ee7…
10-27 05:30:36	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xfc0f64…
10-27 05:30:36	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	93	1¢	$1	0x350e1f…
10-27 05:30:35	NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xb12a70…
10-27 05:30:35	Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	17¢	$1	0x520457…
10-27 05:30:33	Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	28¢	$1	0xc96486…
10-27 05:30:32	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xd03950…
10-27 05:30:30	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-03 House election by 5%-10%?	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0x50c20e…
10-27 05:30:29	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-13 House election by 50%-55%?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x596253…
10-27 05:30:29	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election by 0%-5%?	No	SELL	1	71¢	$1	0x1e942f…
10-27 05:30:27	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 West Virginia Senate election by 40%-45%?	Yes	SELL	4	13¢	$1	0x153bac…
10-27 05:30:26	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0xd57d81…
10-27 05:30:24	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-03 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0x176bf9…
10-27 05:30:23	Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	28¢	$1	0x3994a7…
10-27 05:30:21	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-08 House election by 45%-50%?	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0xa1e051…
10-27 05:30:20	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 0%-3%?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x8583f1…
10-27 05:30:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-02 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x6cfb4a…
10-27 05:30:17	Will Jayden Maiava be the 2026 D1 Passing Yards Leader?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x7799a3…
10-27 03:07:03	U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	10¢	$1	0xf9b949…
10-27 03:07:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0xb511bf…
10-27 03:07:03	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0x407637…
10-27 03:07:02	Will Iran target Bahrain by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x246893…
10-27 03:07:00	Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0xb81e59…
10-27 03:06:59	Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x97060c…
10-27 03:06:59	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x48c979…
10-27 03:06:59	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x0b9743…
10-27 03:06:57	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 18% or more?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x6c315b…
10-27 03:06:57	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 40%-45%?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x36e7fc…
10-27 03:06:56	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xb642d5…
10-27 03:06:54	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2028?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x56bd93…
10-27 03:06:54	Will the US federal government take a stake in Lockheed Martin Corporation?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x11226b…
10-27 03:06:53	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 21% or more?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xe00a51…
10-27 03:06:51	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?	Yes	SELL	21	5¢	$1	0x986927…
10-27 03:06:51	Will Sekhopi Malebo be the next mayor of Mangaung?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x921a6f…
10-27 03:06:50	Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd8f5e9…
10-27 03:06:50	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 35%-40%?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x64740b…
10-27 03:06:47	Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x58c206…
10-27 03:06:45	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4c0fc5…
10-27 03:06:45	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OR-02 House election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x49c0fd…
10-27 03:06:44	Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd68720…
10-27 03:06:42	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf2365c…
10-27 03:06:42	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x7b3308…
10-27 03:06:41	Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd8ccb2…
10-27 03:06:39	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?	No	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0xc9c86e…
10-27 03:06:38	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x6fe23d…
10-27 03:06:36	Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x71f21d…
10-27 03:06:35	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?	No	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x49765e…
10-27 03:06:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0x0c988a…
10-27 03:00:24	Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	48	2¢	$1	0x848c80…
10-27 03:00:18	Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	SELL	11	11¢	$1	0x2fb2c7…
10-27 03:00:15	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	SELL	2	79¢	$1	0xb7fa32…
10-27 03:00:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-02 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	6	25¢	$1	0xf1cd00…
10-27 03:00:12	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	4	36¢	$2	0xe0ed97…
10-27 03:00:12	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xba4695…
10-27 03:00:11	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	19	8¢	$2	0xa93518…
10-27 03:00:09	Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31?	No	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0x27092c…
10-27 03:00:08	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	4¢	$2	0xb8cb3b…
10-27 03:00:06	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xfd2235…
10-27 03:00:06	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	2	87¢	$2	0x4e7890…
10-27 03:00:03	Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x1f70c9…
10-27 03:00:02	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x981fa0…
10-27 03:00:02	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 25%-30%?	No	SELL	3	67¢	$2	0x7135af…
10-27 03:00:00	Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by October 31?	No	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0xb9c579…
10-27 02:59:59	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xa1afc1…
10-27 02:59:59	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?	No	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x217732…
10-27 02:59:57	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	3	81¢	$2	0x7821e6…
10-27 02:59:56	Will Mark Cuban announce a Presidential run before 2028?	No	SELL	3	81¢	$2	0xe9a675…
10-27 02:59:56	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0xbc0be9…
10-27 02:59:54	Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x88a556…
10-27 02:59:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x83be4b…
10-27 02:59:33	Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x04c799…
10-27 02:59:32	Will Fortuna Sittard be relegated from the 2026-27 Eredivisie?	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x94da7a…
10-27 02:59:30	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xade100…
10-27 02:59:30	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	3	80¢	$2	0x081d7d…
10-27 02:59:29	Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x3a90e0…
10-27 02:59:29	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	21	12¢	$3	0x33f7e9…
10-27 02:59:27	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas Senate election by 5%-10%?	No	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0xb57632…
10-27 02:59:27	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x16c184…
10-27 02:59:26	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xb259aa…
10-27 02:59:26	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2028?	No	SELL	4	84¢	$3	0xa47dfe…
10-27 02:59:26	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2028?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x5670b0…
10-27 02:59:26	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0x1990bf…
10-27 02:59:24	Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Yes	SELL	22	13¢	$3	0xa46303…
10-27 02:59:24	Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2028?	No	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0x80950c…
10-27 02:59:23	Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	No	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0xbeca19…
10-27 02:59:21	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0xfa400c…
10-27 02:59:21	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election by 5%-10%?	No	SELL	4	68¢	$3	0xd14ede…
10-27 02:59:20	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xdd2a4e…
10-27 02:59:20	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	4	92¢	$4	0x5da80c…
10-27 02:59:20	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x511dc6…
10-27 02:59:18	Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0x9d98b0…
10-27 02:59:17	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	8	48¢	$4	0x35172b…
10-27 02:59:15	Will MrBeast announce a Presidential run before 2028?	No	SELL	4	91¢	$4	0x50a399…
10-27 02:59:14	Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2028?	No	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x6d0c38…
10-27 02:59:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	24¢	$4	0xe15e4b…
10-27 02:59:11	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xd39c7c…
10-27 02:59:11	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x8435b8…